China’s rapid economic growth has long relied on a model of large-scale urban land acquisition and transfer,which is now increasingly constrained by central government policies.In response,local governments have impl...China’s rapid economic growth has long relied on a model of large-scale urban land acquisition and transfer,which is now increasingly constrained by central government policies.In response,local governments have implemented the“Area-Based Evaluation Mechanism”Reform to reallocate land resources to more efficient enterprises;however,the specific effects of this reform remain unclear.This study investigates the economic impact of China’s“Area-Based Evaluation Mechanism”Reform using panel data on 2530 county-level units from 2011 to 2020 and a multiperiod difference-in-differences model.The results show that the reform increased county-level economic growth by approximately 1.4 percentage points in the baseline case.Two mechanisms are identified:(1)a positive incentive channel,which reduces resource misallocation between efficient and inefficient enterprises by 0.254 units;and(2)a reverse pressure channel,which drives enterprises to increase R&D investment by 0.207,boosts innovation output by 0.119,and thereby enhances total factor productivity by 0.283.Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the reform’s effects are more pronounced in eastern and Yangtze River Delta regions,counties with higher land output values,and those with a lower proportion of industrial activity.In contrast,the impact is limited in inland regions,areas with lower land output values,and regions with higher industrial proportions.These results remain robust after a series of tests and suggest that promoting economic growth through land reform requires advancing market-oriented approaches to fully utilize the market mechanism.The study offers practical implications for designing more effective and incentive-compatible governance frameworks.展开更多
Policy support for the services sector has continued to gain momentum.China's latest Report on the Work of the Government released in March called for expanding investment in key service industries,while the count...Policy support for the services sector has continued to gain momentum.China's latest Report on the Work of the Government released in March called for expanding investment in key service industries,while the country's first national conference dedicated to the services sector—now China's largest economic sector—in April underscored its growing strategic importance.As incomes rise and the economy becomes more sophisticated,services are expected to play an increasingly important role in driving economic growth.展开更多
Looking back at how China successfully left no-one behind.IN an era when even once-proud industrialized nations battle to ensure jobs,pensions,and a secure future,the enviable story of a country that rose from a devel...Looking back at how China successfully left no-one behind.IN an era when even once-proud industrialized nations battle to ensure jobs,pensions,and a secure future,the enviable story of a country that rose from a developing nation marked by widespread poverty to a global economic power in the short span of fifty years offers a ray of hope.展开更多
In the countryside of east Zhejiang Province,a quiet village has hit a home run.Xujiadai,once a place known for pig farming and environmental pollution,is drawing visitors from across China with a sport still uncommon...In the countryside of east Zhejiang Province,a quiet village has hit a home run.Xujiadai,once a place known for pig farming and environmental pollution,is drawing visitors from across China with a sport still uncommon in the country:baseball.展开更多
In the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization,achieving a coordinated relationship between urban construction land expansion(UCLE)and economic growth is essential for sustainable development,especially in...In the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization,achieving a coordinated relationship between urban construction land expansion(UCLE)and economic growth is essential for sustainable development,especially in developing countries.This study examined the spatiotemporal relationship between UCLE and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin(YRB),China from 2000 to 2020.An extended IPAT(Impact=Population×Affluence×Technology)decoupling framework and the geographical detector model were employed at a 5-km grid scale.Results show that urban construction land(UCL)expanded slowly before 2005,accelerated between 2005 and 2015,and declined thereafter.Since 2015,UCLE in most parts of the YRB has gradually decoupled from economic growth.The geographical detector analysis revealed that economic growth,along with its interactions with natural,locational,and socioeconomic factors,significantly influenced UCLE.Notably,location factors have gained importance since 2015,reducing the role of economic growth as the primary driver of UCLE in the YRB’s lower reaches.Nonetheless,economic growth continues to significantly influence the upper and middle reaches.These findings highlight the need for more precise and differentiated strategies for land utilization and economic growth,tailored to finer spatial scales,to better integrate human-land systems and promote high-quality regional development.展开更多
This paper develops an economic growth model incorporating China’s Environmental Target Responsibility System(ETRS)to analyze its impact on both economic growth and social welfare.We find that the ETRS’s effect on e...This paper develops an economic growth model incorporating China’s Environmental Target Responsibility System(ETRS)to analyze its impact on both economic growth and social welfare.We find that the ETRS’s effect on economic growth is complex,resulting from the interplay of three key factors:its potential to improve environmental quality,its potential dampening effect on total factor productivity(TFP),and its influence on local government spending on environmental governance.A balanced ETRS can improve environmental quality,promote technological innovation,and enhance social welfare.However,excessively stringent targets and overly emphasized responsibility may lead to declines in both economic growth and social welfare.From the perspective of balancing economic growth and social welfare,we find that the ETRS that maximizes economic growth is less stringent than the ETRS that maximizes social welfare.Crucially,the economic growth cost of shifting from a growth-maximizing to a welfare-maximizing ETRS is minimal.In other words,significant improvements in environmental quality and public well-being can be achieved without substantially sacrificing economic dynamism.This paper attempts to model China’s unique environmental target assessment system within the framework of endogenous growth theory,offering a new perspective for understanding the dynamic relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in China.展开更多
In accordance with the directives of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China,it is essential to enhance policies for strategic emerging industries like photovoltaic ener...In accordance with the directives of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China,it is essential to enhance policies for strategic emerging industries like photovoltaic energy and to establish localized mechanisms for developing new quality productive forces.Using a difference-in-differences(DID)approach on a panel data between 2010 and 2020,this study assesses the impact of China’s photovoltaic(PV)poverty alleviation policies on county-level economic growth.The results show that the PV poverty alleviation policy leads to increases of 3.2%in GDP and 5.3%in GDP per capita,respectively,in targeted poverty counties.These findings are robust across multiple tests.The positive effects are particularly salient in regions with stronger central government support and higher solar radiation.Further analysis reveals that the beneficial effect of this policy is stronger in counties with higher share of poor villages and households,as well as larger coverage of PV station development.In terms of its impact mechanisms,the policy has provided new income sources,expanded employment opportunities,and enhanced market vitality through improvements in the electricity supply.This study offers theoretical insights for optimizing China’s PV industry policy under its rural revitalization strategy,and contributes to building long-term sustainable development mechanisms in rural areas.It also advances our understanding of the poverty-reducing potential of new quality productive forces.展开更多
In light of growing challenges posed by water pollution,understanding the multifaceted impacts of water quality on economic performance is an imperative for formulating effective policies aimed at sustainable developm...In light of growing challenges posed by water pollution,understanding the multifaceted impacts of water quality on economic performance is an imperative for formulating effective policies aimed at sustainable development.Existing studies tend to be constrained by limited local data,and lack a perspective on spatial dynamics and regional variations in water quality effects.This study addresses these gaps by examining the influence of upstream water quality on downstream economic growth in China,utilizing high-resolution panel data.Findings reveal that a 1%increase in upstream biochemical oxygen demand(BOD)concentration reduces downstream economic growth by 0.25% nationally.Regionally,the constraining effect varies significantly,ranging from 0.38% in Southwest China(β=-0.38)to 0.92% in North China(β=-0.92).Notably,even in regions with non-polluted water,upstream water quality deterioration continues to impede downstream economic growth.These findings underscore the critical need to integrate water quality considerations into economic policy frameworks and highlight the importance of coordinated,cross-regional water quality management strategies to foster sustainable economic development.展开更多
To investigate how spatial heterogeneity affects the so-called“resource curse”in China,we combine a careful selection of indicators with the concept of resource industry spatial agglomeration(RISA)as a proxy for res...To investigate how spatial heterogeneity affects the so-called“resource curse”in China,we combine a careful selection of indicators with the concept of resource industry spatial agglomeration(RISA)as a proxy for resource abundance and dependency.To address RISA heterogeneity among regions,those lacking a spatial concentration in non-resource industries are excluded from the analysis.We then develop an econometric model of regional economic growth(REG)using RISA.To further investigate the impact mechanisms of RISA and other factors influencing REG,we use the feasible generalized least squares(FGLS)method and the system generalized method of moments(SGMM).Conducting a stepwise regression analysis,we systematically examine the effect of the resource curse at the regional level from a RISA perspective.Our key findings are as follows:①Fifteen provinces in China exhibit RISA,and their level of economic development is significantly lower than that of provinces without a spatial agglomeration of resource industries.②RISA and REG exhibit a“U-shaped”relationship,characterized initially by suppression followed by promotion.③In terms of transmission mechanisms,investments in material and human capital,the degree of openness to foreign trade,and residents’savings rate all suppress RISA,while investments in technological innovation,development of the private economy and the manufacturing industry,and government intervention can promote spatial agglomeration of resource industries.展开更多
Since 2000,China's investment in Africa has grown rapidly,following a steady upward trajectory.However,this influx of Chinese capital has sparked both economic and political controversies.By integrating multi-sour...Since 2000,China's investment in Africa has grown rapidly,following a steady upward trajectory.However,this influx of Chinese capital has sparked both economic and political controversies.By integrating multi-source data—from micro-level individual projects to national statistics—this study examines the impact of Chinese investment on African economic development between 2000 and 2022.The results reveal a significant positive correlation between Chinese investment and economic growth across different scales,with investment-intensive regions achieving stronger economic outcomes.The DID analysis indicates that the Belt and Road Initiative has contributed positively to Africa's economic development.Both static and dynamic panel models confirm that Chinese investment significantly stimulates growth,exhibiting notable lag effects.Furthermore,β-convergence models demonstrate that Chinese investment fosters economic convergence among African countries.Regarding regional inequality,the findings suggest that Chinese investment helps to narrow disparities across Africa,promoting a more balanced economic landscape.Overall,this research underscores the constructive role of China's investment in fostering economic growth and reducing inequality within the African context.展开更多
In the Turkish Economy,there were radical changes in the structure of the economy with the policies of opening up to the outside world and transition to a free market economy in the 1980s,and the last step of this ope...In the Turkish Economy,there were radical changes in the structure of the economy with the policies of opening up to the outside world and transition to a free market economy in the 1980s,and the last step of this opening up and liberalization process was realized with the decision number 32 in 1989.We can say that with the liberalization of capital movements in the 1990s,economic growth and development were tried to be achieved through hot money inflows rather than direct foreign investments.This trend made the economy more open to crises,and for the first time,a crisis occurred in the form of the 1994 economic crisis,which was understood to be caused by hot money.The same economic structure experienced a financial and economic crisis caused by hot money again in November 2000 and February 2001.While the crisis was overcome with the stand-by agreement made with the IMF(International Monetary Fund)and the announced Transition to a Strong Economy program,the economy started to grow rapidly with the ease of using foreign resources,and political stability seems to have enabled this economic growth process to continue uninterruptedly except 2009.There was also a decrease in inflation rates.The same economic structure continued in the period between 2010 and 2020,and the financing need of economic growth was met by outsourcing.However,this process was different from the previous decade and there was no economic and financial crisis other than the sudden increase in exchange rates in 2018.We can say that the sudden exchange rate increase in 2018 was perceived as a harbinger of possible exchange rate shocks in the following years.展开更多
The complementary relationship between foreign direct investment(FDI),financial development,and economic growth which is an important element in promoting economic growth and sustainable development is part of a more ...The complementary relationship between foreign direct investment(FDI),financial development,and economic growth which is an important element in promoting economic growth and sustainable development is part of a more attractive and sought-after discussion.This paper focuses on the mediating role of financial development in the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth by processing a database of a sample of 10 Asian countries over the period from 2000 to 2022.The interest of this study is to establish the maximum threshold of financial development that guarantees the positive returns related to foreign direct investment,taking into account that the banking sector and the stock market reflect financial development indicators.The results of the econometric technique generalized method of moments(GMM)and the threshold regression(TR)show a minimum threshold of financial development of 82.21%for the index of the banking sector and 27.24%for the stock market index.In addition,this study justifies the significant positive contribution of foreign direct investment to economic growth before and after the determination of the regression threshold.However,this effect becomes more important when the threshold of financial development exceeds a defined level.This is true when financial development is measured both through the banking sector and the stock market.It is therefore important for the 10 countries in question to cap the financial system thresholds at agreed milestones in order to fully reap the benefits of foreign direct investment.展开更多
The optimal allocation of foreign resources requires a minimum level of domestic development,including financial development to benefit from the potential benefits of foreign direct investment.This study discusses the...The optimal allocation of foreign resources requires a minimum level of domestic development,including financial development to benefit from the potential benefits of foreign direct investment.This study discusses the mediating role of financial development in the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth and establishes the banking sector threshold for the 18 least developed African countries over the period 2000 to 2020.We used the generalized method of moments(GMM)and the threshold regression(TR)as part of the dynamic panel data model.The results show the non-significant contribution of foreign direct investment and the banking sector to economic growth.After interaction,the effect of foreign direct investment becomes positive but not significant.However,the coefficient of the interaction variable is significantly negative.This implies that the financial system is unable to allocate foreign resources efficiently.For this reason,this paper resorted to applying the threshold regression to determine the minimum threshold of the banking sector and established a threshold of 74.58%.It therefore becomes necessary for the 18 least developed African countries to develop the financial system in order to get full benefits of foreign direct investment.展开更多
The optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure are key drivers of high-quality economic development.As the largest provincial economy in China,Guangdong’s industrial evolution serves as a bellwether for t...The optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure are key drivers of high-quality economic development.As the largest provincial economy in China,Guangdong’s industrial evolution serves as a bellwether for the nation.Based on an incremental perspective,this paper measures the correlation between industrial fluctuations and GDP in Guangdong Province from 2014 to 2023.The research results indicate that the Tertiary Industry shows the highest degree of correlation,with other service industries and Transportation,Storage&Postal services performing particularly prominently;In the Secondary Industry,the synchronization of the Construction Industry is significantly higher than that of the industrial sector,indicating that the investment side within the secondary industry is more sensitive to incremental fluctuations.The Primary Industry has the lowest synchronization,which is consistent with the characteristics of Guangdong’s agricultural structure.Based on these findings,this paper proposes policy recommendations to provide references for the sustained and healthy development of Guangdong Province’s economy.展开更多
Intellectual capital(IC)has become a universal performance indicator for the socioeconomic development of countries and regions.Based on a review ofnational intellectualcapital(NIC)and regional intellectualcapital(RIC...Intellectual capital(IC)has become a universal performance indicator for the socioeconomic development of countries and regions.Based on a review ofnational intellectualcapital(NIC)and regional intellectualcapital(RIC)evaluation literature,we used the regional intellectualcapitalindicator(RICI)as a model for China’s RIC evaluation to indirectly understand China’s potential economic growth drivers.Specifically,we collected statisticaldata of31 provinces(including municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2004 to 2016to measure RICI and analyze its dynamic characteristics from temporal and spatial perspectives.In this paper,Delphi analysis was used to construct RICI model,and cluster analysisand exploratory spatial data analysis were used to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of RICI in China.The results showedthat RICI,which represents China’s overall economic growth drivers,increases annuallyand is consistent with economic developmentlevelduring the study period.Regarding the geo-spatial space,RICI follows the trend of“high in the east and low in the west”,gradually decreasing from eastern to western China.ForRIC structure,the shape of the radar chart of IC structure located in the eastern coastal areas is usually biased towards strong external relational capital,while that in western China is generally biased towards structural capital.For spatial correlation,China’s RICI has dependence on geographical adjacent space and economic space.Our research can provide policy suggestions for the sustainable development of regional economy from an IC perspective.展开更多
This paper makes systematic observations of China's contributions to global macroeconomic growth and bulk commodity consumption. Our observations suggest that while China's economic size is relatively small on a per...This paper makes systematic observations of China's contributions to global macroeconomic growth and bulk commodity consumption. Our observations suggest that while China's economic size is relatively small on a per capita basis, its contributions are large in terms of overall volume; moreover, the economy has experienced tremendous growth. Quantifying these characteristics that are unique to China's development creates a realistic background upon which China can re-examine its trade and economic policies and strategic thinking.展开更多
Elucidating the complex mechanism between urbanization, economic growth, car- bon dioxide emissions is fundamental necessary to inform effective strategies on energy saving and emission reduction in China. Based on a ...Elucidating the complex mechanism between urbanization, economic growth, car- bon dioxide emissions is fundamental necessary to inform effective strategies on energy saving and emission reduction in China. Based on a balanced panel data of 31 provinces in China over the period 1997-2010, this study empirically examines the relationships among urbanization, economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at the national and re- gional levels using panel cointegration and vector error correction model and Granger cau- sality tests. Results showed that urbanization, economic growth and CO2 emissions are inte- grated of order one. Urbanization contributes to economic growth, both of which increase CO2 emissions in China and its eastern, central and western regions. The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions in the western region was larger than that in the eastern and central re- gions. But economic growth had a larger impact on CO2 emissions in the eastern region than that in the central and western regions. Panel causality analysis revealed a bidirectional long-run causal relationship among urbanization, economic growth and CO2 emissions, in- dicating that in the long run, urbanization does have a causal effect on economic growth in China, both of which have causal effect on CO2 emissions. At the regional level, we also found a bidirectional long-run causality between land urbanization and economic growth in eastern and central China. These results demonstrated that it might be difficult for China to pursue carbon emissions reduction policy and to control urban expansion without impeding economic growth in the long run. In the short-run, we observed a unidirectional causation running from land urbanization to CO2 emissions and from economic growth to CO2 emissions in the eastern and central regions. Further investigations revealed an inverted N-shaped re- lationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in China, not supporting the envi- ronmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Our empirical findings have an important refer- ence value for policy-makers in formulating effective energy saving and emission reduction strategies for China.展开更多
As the biggest iron and steel producer in the world and one of the highest CO2 emission sectors, China’s iron and steel industry is undergoing a low-carbon transition accompanied by remarkable technological progress ...As the biggest iron and steel producer in the world and one of the highest CO2 emission sectors, China’s iron and steel industry is undergoing a low-carbon transition accompanied by remarkable technological progress and investment adjustment, in response to the macroeconomic climate and policy intervention. Many drivers of the CO2 emissions of the iron and steel industry have been explored, but the relationships between CO2 abatement,investment and technological expenditure, and their connections with the economic growth and governmental policies in China, have not been conjointly and empirically examined. We proposed a concise conceptual model and an econometric model to investigate this crucial question. The results of regression, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis indicated that technological expenditure can significantly reduce CO2 emissions, and that investment expansion showed a negative impact on CO2 emission reduction. It was also argued with empirical evidence that a good economic situation favored CO2 abatement in China’s iron and steel industry, while achieving CO2 emission reduction in this industrial sector did not necessarily threaten economic growth.This shed light on the dispute over balancing emission cutting and economic growth.Regarding the policy aspects, the year 2000 was found to be an important turning point for policy evolution and the development of the iron and steel industry in China. The subsequent command and control policies had a significant, positive effect on CO2 abatement.展开更多
China′s economy and transport infrastructure have both experienced rapid development since 1978, and especially since 1990. Today, China is the second-largest economic entity in terms of GDP and has the largest high-...China′s economy and transport infrastructure have both experienced rapid development since 1978, and especially since 1990. Today, China is the second-largest economic entity in terms of GDP and has the largest high-speed rail(HSR) network and the second-largest expressway network in the world. This paper explores the relationship between accessibility and economic growth in China from 1990 to 2010. In the study, the basic research units include 333 prefecture-level cities and four municipalities. We explore a bivariate analysis framework of accessibility and economic growth, and their increase rates, to examine this relationship using long-term panel data. The results indicate that, first, accessibility and economic growth show a significant positive relationship using both cross-section and panel data, while the increase rate in accessibility and GDP indicate no significant relationship using cross-section data and a poor significant relationship using panel data. Second, the distributions of local advantage are uneven. Cities with low local advantage with respect to accessibility and GDP are mainly located in China′s eastern coastal region or the provincial capitals, while those with low local advantage in terms of their increase rates are located in the western region. Third, as China′s economic growth and transport networks have evolved, the distribution of local advantage shows little change in terms of accessibility and GDP, but a greater change in terms of their increase rates, which is largely influenced by the distribution of expressway and HSR networks.展开更多
Fossil energy is the material basis of human survival, economic development and social progress. The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is becoming increasingly close. However, energy consumpt...Fossil energy is the material basis of human survival, economic development and social progress. The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is becoming increasingly close. However, energy consumption is the major source of greenhouse gases, which can significantly affect the balance of the global ecosystem. It has become the common goal of countries worldwide to address climate change, reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and implement sustainable development strategies. In this study, we applied an approximate relationship analysis, a decoupling relationship analysis, and a trend analysis to explore the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth using data from Kazakhstan for the period of 1993-2010. The results demonstrated: (1) the total energy consumption and GDP in Kazakhstan showed a "U"-type curve from 1993 to 2010. This curve was observed because 1993-1999 was a period during which Kazakhstan transitioned from a republic to an independent country and experienced a difficult transition from a planned to a market economy. Then, the economic system became more stable and the industrial production increased rapidly because of the effective financial, monetary and industrial policy support from 2000 to 2010. (2) The relationships between energy con- sumption and carbon emissions, economic growth and energy exports were linked; the carbon emissions were mainly derived from energy consumption, and the dependence of economic growth on energy exports gradually increased from 1993 to 2010. Before 2000, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was in a recessional decoupling state because of the economic recession. After 2000, this relationship was in strong and weak decoupling states because the international crude oil prices rose and energy exports increased greatly year by year. (3) It is forecasted that Kazakhstan cannot achieve its goal of energy consumption by 2020. Therefore, a low-carbon economy is the best strategic choice to address climate change from a global perspective in Kazakhstan. Thus, we proposed strategies including the improvement of the energy consumption structure, the development of new energy and renewable energy, the use of cleaner production technologies, the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure, and the expansion of forest areas.展开更多
基金supported by the 2025 STCSM Soft Science Research Project[Grant No.25692115900].
摘要China’s rapid economic growth has long relied on a model of large-scale urban land acquisition and transfer,which is now increasingly constrained by central government policies.In response,local governments have implemented the“Area-Based Evaluation Mechanism”Reform to reallocate land resources to more efficient enterprises;however,the specific effects of this reform remain unclear.This study investigates the economic impact of China’s“Area-Based Evaluation Mechanism”Reform using panel data on 2530 county-level units from 2011 to 2020 and a multiperiod difference-in-differences model.The results show that the reform increased county-level economic growth by approximately 1.4 percentage points in the baseline case.Two mechanisms are identified:(1)a positive incentive channel,which reduces resource misallocation between efficient and inefficient enterprises by 0.254 units;and(2)a reverse pressure channel,which drives enterprises to increase R&D investment by 0.207,boosts innovation output by 0.119,and thereby enhances total factor productivity by 0.283.Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the reform’s effects are more pronounced in eastern and Yangtze River Delta regions,counties with higher land output values,and those with a lower proportion of industrial activity.In contrast,the impact is limited in inland regions,areas with lower land output values,and regions with higher industrial proportions.These results remain robust after a series of tests and suggest that promoting economic growth through land reform requires advancing market-oriented approaches to fully utilize the market mechanism.The study offers practical implications for designing more effective and incentive-compatible governance frameworks.
摘要Policy support for the services sector has continued to gain momentum.China's latest Report on the Work of the Government released in March called for expanding investment in key service industries,while the country's first national conference dedicated to the services sector—now China's largest economic sector—in April underscored its growing strategic importance.As incomes rise and the economy becomes more sophisticated,services are expected to play an increasingly important role in driving economic growth.
摘要Looking back at how China successfully left no-one behind.IN an era when even once-proud industrialized nations battle to ensure jobs,pensions,and a secure future,the enviable story of a country that rose from a developing nation marked by widespread poverty to a global economic power in the short span of fifty years offers a ray of hope.
摘要In the countryside of east Zhejiang Province,a quiet village has hit a home run.Xujiadai,once a place known for pig farming and environmental pollution,is drawing visitors from across China with a sport still uncommon in the country:baseball.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42293271,42471222)。
摘要In the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization,achieving a coordinated relationship between urban construction land expansion(UCLE)and economic growth is essential for sustainable development,especially in developing countries.This study examined the spatiotemporal relationship between UCLE and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin(YRB),China from 2000 to 2020.An extended IPAT(Impact=Population×Affluence×Technology)decoupling framework and the geographical detector model were employed at a 5-km grid scale.Results show that urban construction land(UCL)expanded slowly before 2005,accelerated between 2005 and 2015,and declined thereafter.Since 2015,UCLE in most parts of the YRB has gradually decoupled from economic growth.The geographical detector analysis revealed that economic growth,along with its interactions with natural,locational,and socioeconomic factors,significantly influenced UCLE.Notably,location factors have gained importance since 2015,reducing the role of economic growth as the primary driver of UCLE in the YRB’s lower reaches.Nonetheless,economic growth continues to significantly influence the upper and middle reaches.These findings highlight the need for more precise and differentiated strategies for land utilization and economic growth,tailored to finer spatial scales,to better integrate human-land systems and promote high-quality regional development.
基金supported by the National Social Science Fund of China(NSSFC)Project“Research on Economic Growth Theory”(Grant No.22VRC176)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)Project“Economic Dynamic Equilibrium and Optimal Regulation Policy Framework Design in the Process of Population Aging”(Grant No.72342033)+1 种基金NSFC Project“Research on the Macroeconomic Impact Mechanism of Local Government Land Allocation Behavior”(Grant No.72003211)the Central University of Finance and Economics Youth Research Innovation Team Support Program Project“Research on Data-Based Platform Anti-Monopoly Regulation”(Grant No.20230047).
摘要This paper develops an economic growth model incorporating China’s Environmental Target Responsibility System(ETRS)to analyze its impact on both economic growth and social welfare.We find that the ETRS’s effect on economic growth is complex,resulting from the interplay of three key factors:its potential to improve environmental quality,its potential dampening effect on total factor productivity(TFP),and its influence on local government spending on environmental governance.A balanced ETRS can improve environmental quality,promote technological innovation,and enhance social welfare.However,excessively stringent targets and overly emphasized responsibility may lead to declines in both economic growth and social welfare.From the perspective of balancing economic growth and social welfare,we find that the ETRS that maximizes economic growth is less stringent than the ETRS that maximizes social welfare.Crucially,the economic growth cost of shifting from a growth-maximizing to a welfare-maximizing ETRS is minimal.In other words,significant improvements in environmental quality and public well-being can be achieved without substantially sacrificing economic dynamism.This paper attempts to model China’s unique environmental target assessment system within the framework of endogenous growth theory,offering a new perspective for understanding the dynamic relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in China.
基金Key Project of the National Social Science Fund of China“Research on Building and Consolidating a Close and Clean Government-Business Relationship”(Grant No.22AZD033)Youth Project of the Anhui Provincial Philosophy and Social Science Planning“Research on Impact Mechanism of Photovoltaic Industry Policies on Firm Entry and Policy Optimization in Anhui Province”(Grant No.AHSKYQ2023D060).
摘要In accordance with the directives of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China,it is essential to enhance policies for strategic emerging industries like photovoltaic energy and to establish localized mechanisms for developing new quality productive forces.Using a difference-in-differences(DID)approach on a panel data between 2010 and 2020,this study assesses the impact of China’s photovoltaic(PV)poverty alleviation policies on county-level economic growth.The results show that the PV poverty alleviation policy leads to increases of 3.2%in GDP and 5.3%in GDP per capita,respectively,in targeted poverty counties.These findings are robust across multiple tests.The positive effects are particularly salient in regions with stronger central government support and higher solar radiation.Further analysis reveals that the beneficial effect of this policy is stronger in counties with higher share of poor villages and households,as well as larger coverage of PV station development.In terms of its impact mechanisms,the policy has provided new income sources,expanded employment opportunities,and enhanced market vitality through improvements in the electricity supply.This study offers theoretical insights for optimizing China’s PV industry policy under its rural revitalization strategy,and contributes to building long-term sustainable development mechanisms in rural areas.It also advances our understanding of the poverty-reducing potential of new quality productive forces.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.52370192,No.52200221,No.52200209Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,No.2023CDSKXYGK011。
摘要In light of growing challenges posed by water pollution,understanding the multifaceted impacts of water quality on economic performance is an imperative for formulating effective policies aimed at sustainable development.Existing studies tend to be constrained by limited local data,and lack a perspective on spatial dynamics and regional variations in water quality effects.This study addresses these gaps by examining the influence of upstream water quality on downstream economic growth in China,utilizing high-resolution panel data.Findings reveal that a 1%increase in upstream biochemical oxygen demand(BOD)concentration reduces downstream economic growth by 0.25% nationally.Regionally,the constraining effect varies significantly,ranging from 0.38% in Southwest China(β=-0.38)to 0.92% in North China(β=-0.92).Notably,even in regions with non-polluted water,upstream water quality deterioration continues to impede downstream economic growth.These findings underscore the critical need to integrate water quality considerations into economic policy frameworks and highlight the importance of coordinated,cross-regional water quality management strategies to foster sustainable economic development.
基金Ministry of Education Humanities and Social Sciences Research General Project“Study on the Responsibility Sharing Accounting and Accountability Mechanism for Coordinated Air Pollution Control in the Yellow River Basin”Project[Grant No.24YJC630260].
摘要To investigate how spatial heterogeneity affects the so-called“resource curse”in China,we combine a careful selection of indicators with the concept of resource industry spatial agglomeration(RISA)as a proxy for resource abundance and dependency.To address RISA heterogeneity among regions,those lacking a spatial concentration in non-resource industries are excluded from the analysis.We then develop an econometric model of regional economic growth(REG)using RISA.To further investigate the impact mechanisms of RISA and other factors influencing REG,we use the feasible generalized least squares(FGLS)method and the system generalized method of moments(SGMM).Conducting a stepwise regression analysis,we systematically examine the effect of the resource curse at the regional level from a RISA perspective.Our key findings are as follows:①Fifteen provinces in China exhibit RISA,and their level of economic development is significantly lower than that of provinces without a spatial agglomeration of resource industries.②RISA and REG exhibit a“U-shaped”relationship,characterized initially by suppression followed by promotion.③In terms of transmission mechanisms,investments in material and human capital,the degree of openness to foreign trade,and residents’savings rate all suppress RISA,while investments in technological innovation,development of the private economy and the manufacturing industry,and government intervention can promote spatial agglomeration of resource industries.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42101424,No.42001115。
摘要Since 2000,China's investment in Africa has grown rapidly,following a steady upward trajectory.However,this influx of Chinese capital has sparked both economic and political controversies.By integrating multi-source data—from micro-level individual projects to national statistics—this study examines the impact of Chinese investment on African economic development between 2000 and 2022.The results reveal a significant positive correlation between Chinese investment and economic growth across different scales,with investment-intensive regions achieving stronger economic outcomes.The DID analysis indicates that the Belt and Road Initiative has contributed positively to Africa's economic development.Both static and dynamic panel models confirm that Chinese investment significantly stimulates growth,exhibiting notable lag effects.Furthermore,β-convergence models demonstrate that Chinese investment fosters economic convergence among African countries.Regarding regional inequality,the findings suggest that Chinese investment helps to narrow disparities across Africa,promoting a more balanced economic landscape.Overall,this research underscores the constructive role of China's investment in fostering economic growth and reducing inequality within the African context.
摘要In the Turkish Economy,there were radical changes in the structure of the economy with the policies of opening up to the outside world and transition to a free market economy in the 1980s,and the last step of this opening up and liberalization process was realized with the decision number 32 in 1989.We can say that with the liberalization of capital movements in the 1990s,economic growth and development were tried to be achieved through hot money inflows rather than direct foreign investments.This trend made the economy more open to crises,and for the first time,a crisis occurred in the form of the 1994 economic crisis,which was understood to be caused by hot money.The same economic structure experienced a financial and economic crisis caused by hot money again in November 2000 and February 2001.While the crisis was overcome with the stand-by agreement made with the IMF(International Monetary Fund)and the announced Transition to a Strong Economy program,the economy started to grow rapidly with the ease of using foreign resources,and political stability seems to have enabled this economic growth process to continue uninterruptedly except 2009.There was also a decrease in inflation rates.The same economic structure continued in the period between 2010 and 2020,and the financing need of economic growth was met by outsourcing.However,this process was different from the previous decade and there was no economic and financial crisis other than the sudden increase in exchange rates in 2018.We can say that the sudden exchange rate increase in 2018 was perceived as a harbinger of possible exchange rate shocks in the following years.
摘要The complementary relationship between foreign direct investment(FDI),financial development,and economic growth which is an important element in promoting economic growth and sustainable development is part of a more attractive and sought-after discussion.This paper focuses on the mediating role of financial development in the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth by processing a database of a sample of 10 Asian countries over the period from 2000 to 2022.The interest of this study is to establish the maximum threshold of financial development that guarantees the positive returns related to foreign direct investment,taking into account that the banking sector and the stock market reflect financial development indicators.The results of the econometric technique generalized method of moments(GMM)and the threshold regression(TR)show a minimum threshold of financial development of 82.21%for the index of the banking sector and 27.24%for the stock market index.In addition,this study justifies the significant positive contribution of foreign direct investment to economic growth before and after the determination of the regression threshold.However,this effect becomes more important when the threshold of financial development exceeds a defined level.This is true when financial development is measured both through the banking sector and the stock market.It is therefore important for the 10 countries in question to cap the financial system thresholds at agreed milestones in order to fully reap the benefits of foreign direct investment.
摘要The optimal allocation of foreign resources requires a minimum level of domestic development,including financial development to benefit from the potential benefits of foreign direct investment.This study discusses the mediating role of financial development in the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth and establishes the banking sector threshold for the 18 least developed African countries over the period 2000 to 2020.We used the generalized method of moments(GMM)and the threshold regression(TR)as part of the dynamic panel data model.The results show the non-significant contribution of foreign direct investment and the banking sector to economic growth.After interaction,the effect of foreign direct investment becomes positive but not significant.However,the coefficient of the interaction variable is significantly negative.This implies that the financial system is unable to allocate foreign resources efficiently.For this reason,this paper resorted to applying the threshold regression to determine the minimum threshold of the banking sector and established a threshold of 74.58%.It therefore becomes necessary for the 18 least developed African countries to develop the financial system in order to get full benefits of foreign direct investment.
基金Guangdong Provincial Education Science Planning Project(Project No.:57/K0724015)Guangzhou University of Technology and Education Youth Fund Project(Project No.:57/K0222011)。
摘要The optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure are key drivers of high-quality economic development.As the largest provincial economy in China,Guangdong’s industrial evolution serves as a bellwether for the nation.Based on an incremental perspective,this paper measures the correlation between industrial fluctuations and GDP in Guangdong Province from 2014 to 2023.The research results indicate that the Tertiary Industry shows the highest degree of correlation,with other service industries and Transportation,Storage&Postal services performing particularly prominently;In the Secondary Industry,the synchronization of the Construction Industry is significantly higher than that of the industrial sector,indicating that the investment side within the secondary industry is more sensitive to incremental fluctuations.The Primary Industry has the lowest synchronization,which is consistent with the characteristics of Guangdong’s agricultural structure.Based on these findings,this paper proposes policy recommendations to provide references for the sustained and healthy development of Guangdong Province’s economy.
基金This research received financial support from the National Social Science Foundationof China(13AJY004).
摘要Intellectual capital(IC)has become a universal performance indicator for the socioeconomic development of countries and regions.Based on a review ofnational intellectualcapital(NIC)and regional intellectualcapital(RIC)evaluation literature,we used the regional intellectualcapitalindicator(RICI)as a model for China’s RIC evaluation to indirectly understand China’s potential economic growth drivers.Specifically,we collected statisticaldata of31 provinces(including municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2004 to 2016to measure RICI and analyze its dynamic characteristics from temporal and spatial perspectives.In this paper,Delphi analysis was used to construct RICI model,and cluster analysisand exploratory spatial data analysis were used to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of RICI in China.The results showedthat RICI,which represents China’s overall economic growth drivers,increases annuallyand is consistent with economic developmentlevelduring the study period.Regarding the geo-spatial space,RICI follows the trend of“high in the east and low in the west”,gradually decreasing from eastern to western China.ForRIC structure,the shape of the radar chart of IC structure located in the eastern coastal areas is usually biased towards strong external relational capital,while that in western China is generally biased towards structural capital.For spatial correlation,China’s RICI has dependence on geographical adjacent space and economic space.Our research can provide policy suggestions for the sustainable development of regional economy from an IC perspective.
摘要This paper makes systematic observations of China's contributions to global macroeconomic growth and bulk commodity consumption. Our observations suggest that while China's economic size is relatively small on a per capita basis, its contributions are large in terms of overall volume; moreover, the economy has experienced tremendous growth. Quantifying these characteristics that are unique to China's development creates a realistic background upon which China can re-examine its trade and economic policies and strategic thinking.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNo.41130748+2 种基金No.41471143Major Program of National Social Science Foundation of ChinaNo.15ZDA021
摘要Elucidating the complex mechanism between urbanization, economic growth, car- bon dioxide emissions is fundamental necessary to inform effective strategies on energy saving and emission reduction in China. Based on a balanced panel data of 31 provinces in China over the period 1997-2010, this study empirically examines the relationships among urbanization, economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at the national and re- gional levels using panel cointegration and vector error correction model and Granger cau- sality tests. Results showed that urbanization, economic growth and CO2 emissions are inte- grated of order one. Urbanization contributes to economic growth, both of which increase CO2 emissions in China and its eastern, central and western regions. The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions in the western region was larger than that in the eastern and central re- gions. But economic growth had a larger impact on CO2 emissions in the eastern region than that in the central and western regions. Panel causality analysis revealed a bidirectional long-run causal relationship among urbanization, economic growth and CO2 emissions, in- dicating that in the long run, urbanization does have a causal effect on economic growth in China, both of which have causal effect on CO2 emissions. At the regional level, we also found a bidirectional long-run causality between land urbanization and economic growth in eastern and central China. These results demonstrated that it might be difficult for China to pursue carbon emissions reduction policy and to control urban expansion without impeding economic growth in the long run. In the short-run, we observed a unidirectional causation running from land urbanization to CO2 emissions and from economic growth to CO2 emissions in the eastern and central regions. Further investigations revealed an inverted N-shaped re- lationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in China, not supporting the envi- ronmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Our empirical findings have an important refer- ence value for policy-makers in formulating effective energy saving and emission reduction strategies for China.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41071352)the National Social Science Foundation of China (No. 13BJY030)the National Science and Technology Support Program (No. 2012BAC03B01)
摘要As the biggest iron and steel producer in the world and one of the highest CO2 emission sectors, China’s iron and steel industry is undergoing a low-carbon transition accompanied by remarkable technological progress and investment adjustment, in response to the macroeconomic climate and policy intervention. Many drivers of the CO2 emissions of the iron and steel industry have been explored, but the relationships between CO2 abatement,investment and technological expenditure, and their connections with the economic growth and governmental policies in China, have not been conjointly and empirically examined. We proposed a concise conceptual model and an econometric model to investigate this crucial question. The results of regression, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis indicated that technological expenditure can significantly reduce CO2 emissions, and that investment expansion showed a negative impact on CO2 emission reduction. It was also argued with empirical evidence that a good economic situation favored CO2 abatement in China’s iron and steel industry, while achieving CO2 emission reduction in this industrial sector did not necessarily threaten economic growth.This shed light on the dispute over balancing emission cutting and economic growth.Regarding the policy aspects, the year 2000 was found to be an important turning point for policy evolution and the development of the iron and steel industry in China. The subsequent command and control policies had a significant, positive effect on CO2 abatement.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41371143,41171107)
摘要China′s economy and transport infrastructure have both experienced rapid development since 1978, and especially since 1990. Today, China is the second-largest economic entity in terms of GDP and has the largest high-speed rail(HSR) network and the second-largest expressway network in the world. This paper explores the relationship between accessibility and economic growth in China from 1990 to 2010. In the study, the basic research units include 333 prefecture-level cities and four municipalities. We explore a bivariate analysis framework of accessibility and economic growth, and their increase rates, to examine this relationship using long-term panel data. The results indicate that, first, accessibility and economic growth show a significant positive relationship using both cross-section and panel data, while the increase rate in accessibility and GDP indicate no significant relationship using cross-section data and a poor significant relationship using panel data. Second, the distributions of local advantage are uneven. Cities with low local advantage with respect to accessibility and GDP are mainly located in China′s eastern coastal region or the provincial capitals, while those with low local advantage in terms of their increase rates are located in the western region. Third, as China′s economic growth and transport networks have evolved, the distribution of local advantage shows little change in terms of accessibility and GDP, but a greater change in terms of their increase rates, which is largely influenced by the distribution of expressway and HSR networks.
基金supported by International Science & Technology Cooperation Program of China (2010DFA92720-07)
摘要Fossil energy is the material basis of human survival, economic development and social progress. The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is becoming increasingly close. However, energy consumption is the major source of greenhouse gases, which can significantly affect the balance of the global ecosystem. It has become the common goal of countries worldwide to address climate change, reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and implement sustainable development strategies. In this study, we applied an approximate relationship analysis, a decoupling relationship analysis, and a trend analysis to explore the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth using data from Kazakhstan for the period of 1993-2010. The results demonstrated: (1) the total energy consumption and GDP in Kazakhstan showed a "U"-type curve from 1993 to 2010. This curve was observed because 1993-1999 was a period during which Kazakhstan transitioned from a republic to an independent country and experienced a difficult transition from a planned to a market economy. Then, the economic system became more stable and the industrial production increased rapidly because of the effective financial, monetary and industrial policy support from 2000 to 2010. (2) The relationships between energy con- sumption and carbon emissions, economic growth and energy exports were linked; the carbon emissions were mainly derived from energy consumption, and the dependence of economic growth on energy exports gradually increased from 1993 to 2010. Before 2000, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was in a recessional decoupling state because of the economic recession. After 2000, this relationship was in strong and weak decoupling states because the international crude oil prices rose and energy exports increased greatly year by year. (3) It is forecasted that Kazakhstan cannot achieve its goal of energy consumption by 2020. Therefore, a low-carbon economy is the best strategic choice to address climate change from a global perspective in Kazakhstan. Thus, we proposed strategies including the improvement of the energy consumption structure, the development of new energy and renewable energy, the use of cleaner production technologies, the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure, and the expansion of forest areas.