Against the backdrop of advancing fiscal digitization,budget management methods and fiscal operation logic are undergoing changes.Existing studies mostly discuss the effectiveness of digital fiscal reforms from the pe...Against the backdrop of advancing fiscal digitization,budget management methods and fiscal operation logic are undergoing changes.Existing studies mostly discuss the effectiveness of digital fiscal reforms from the perspective of technological application or efficiency improvement,but pay relatively insufficient attention to how it affects the standardization of interdepartmental budget fund allocation.Based on this,taking the integrated budget management reform as the entry point,this paper explores the action path of fiscal digitization on the standardization of interdepartmental budget fund allocation from two levels:institutional foundation and operational mechanism.The study holds that fiscal digitization does not directly determine the allocation result of budget funds among departments,but changes the institutional environment relied on by budget allocation behavior by unifying budget rules,connecting budget management processes,and reconstructing budget information structure,thereby forming more stable and enforceable institutional constraints on departmental budget allocation.On this basis,fiscal digitization further exerts institutional constraints during the budget execution stage by embedding supervision and auditing functions into the budget execution process and improving the transparency of budget operation,inhibiting arbitrariness and strategic adjustments in interdepartmental budget allocation.Thus,the standardization of interdepartmental budget fund allocation is gradually strengthened,and the improvement of allocation efficiency is more reflected as a natural result under standardized constraints.The analysis of this paper helps to understand the governance effect of fiscal digitization from the perspective of institutional operation and provides theoretical reference for further improving the interdepartmental budget fund allocation mechanism.展开更多
The digital economy has become a core driver of global growth.In 2024,China's imports and exports of digitally deliverable services reached RMB 2.9 trillion,a year-onyear increase of 6.5%,with the scale of digital...The digital economy has become a core driver of global growth.In 2024,China's imports and exports of digitally deliverable services reached RMB 2.9 trillion,a year-onyear increase of 6.5%,with the scale of digital service exports ranking among the world's highest.However,domestic digital products largely rely on low prices to enter overseas markets,and there is a significant gap between China and the U.S.and Europe in terms of core algorithms,data compliance,international standards,and pricing power.展开更多
This paper explores the theoretical mechanisms through which vertical fiscal imbalance influences the transfer of rural surplus labor.Using provincial-level panel data from 1998 to 2017,it empirically examines the eff...This paper explores the theoretical mechanisms through which vertical fiscal imbalance influences the transfer of rural surplus labor.Using provincial-level panel data from 1998 to 2017,it empirically examines the effects of vertical fiscal imbalance on this labor transfer process.The findings indicate that:(1)Currently,vertical fiscal imbalance has a significant direct hindering effect on the transfer of rural surplus labor.(2)Vertical fiscal imbalance hinders the transfer of the rural labor force by slowing down regional economic growth and limiting the effectiveness of regional human capital investment.The indirect effect of the former is weaker than the indirect effect of the latter.展开更多
China’s path to modernization,which embodies a unique developmental model characterized by high-quality development,common prosperity,harmony with nature,and peaceful coexistence,is a multifaceted process that advanc...China’s path to modernization,which embodies a unique developmental model characterized by high-quality development,common prosperity,harmony with nature,and peaceful coexistence,is a multifaceted process that advances progress on multiple fronts.This paper applies two analytical lenses to the study of intergovernmental fiscal relations:multi-level governance,where different levels of government interact,and multi-objective decision-making,where multiple goals are pursued simultaneously.From this perspective,it puts forward three core propositions.First,the evolution of fiscal relations is shaped primarily by the central government’s need to balance incentivization,coordination,and control.Second,these relations are constrained by objective factors such as the output elasticity of loacl government actions,cost coefficients,externalities,and uncertainty.Third,the effectiveness of both central and local governments depends on the design of fiscal relations,as well as on their objectives,the output elasticity of actions,and costs.In essence,effective intergovernmental fiscal relations require a balance between centralized leadership and local initiative.Using this framework,the paper examines how changes in China’s fiscal system have influenced modernization across different historical periods,offering a theoretical model tailored to China’s national context.展开更多
Under the dual drivers of global climate governance and carbon neutrality goals,agricultural carbon emission reduction has become a pivotal component of regional green transformation.This study focuses on Guangdong,a ...Under the dual drivers of global climate governance and carbon neutrality goals,agricultural carbon emission reduction has become a pivotal component of regional green transformation.This study focuses on Guangdong,a major province,employing the LMDI decomposition mode to systematically analyze the driving mechanis of agricultural carbon emissions.It reveals that the low ecological compensation standard,industrial path dependence,and high-carbon energy lock-in consti-tute core constraints.The research finds that the absence of ecological compensation standards and the structural imbalance of traditional subsidy policies induce diminishing marginal benefits in carbon reduction due to structural imbalances,while persistent funding shortages in low-carbon technology R&D further weaken emission reduction efficacy,exacerbating compatibility contradictions between emission policies and production practices.Through the comparison of domestic and foreign experiences,it is found that under the global wave of low-carbon transformation in agriculture,the ecological compensation optimization layer should establish a calculation system for the carbon sink value of cultivated land and differentiated compensation standards;the fiscal and taxation policy coordination layer should implement a tiered carbon tax on agricultural inputs and carbon sink pledge financing incentives.Constructing a fiscal expenditure and fiscal and taxation coordination mechanism that suits regional characteristics is the key path to resolving the contradiction between the technical economy and ecological sustainability of emission reduction.展开更多
This paper leverages the Opinions of the State Council on Further Promoting the Reform of the Household Registration System as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the impact of rural migrant urbanization on local go...This paper leverages the Opinions of the State Council on Further Promoting the Reform of the Household Registration System as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the impact of rural migrant urbanization on local government expenditures in science and technology(S&T)and education.Employing a generalized difference-in-differences(generalized-DID)approach and panel data from 271 Chinese prefecture-level and above-level cities spanning 2003–2019,we find that household registration reform driven by this urbanization process significantly increased the absolute level as well as the fiscal share of S&T and education spending.Mechanism analyses indicate that rural migrant urbanization promotes these expenditures through two channels:increasing the overall local fiscal revenue and encouraging a greater proportion of the fiscal resources to be allocated to these sectors.The findings uncover the current evolving trends in fiscal resource allocation due to rural migrant urbanization and provide empirical evidence for optimizing the provision of public services and enhancing the potential of long-term economic development.展开更多
For a large country like China, the handling of intergovernmental fiscal relations must create compatible incentives to central and local governments. China initially created a fiscal management system characterized b...For a large country like China, the handling of intergovernmental fiscal relations must create compatible incentives to central and local governments. China initially created a fiscal management system characterized by tax sharing in 1994, basically meeting the needs of its socialist market economic system. Yet further improvements must be made to the assignment of administrative authority and expenditure responsibilities, revenue allocation and the fiscal transfer payment system. In handling intergovernmental fiscal relations, great attention must be given to the system's stability to give play to its function of incentives and restraints. China must create a hierarchical fiscal management system in line with its modern fiscal system. According to the requirements of this system, China should further standardize the division between administrative authority and expenditure responsibilities, standardize the division of government revenues, formalize a fiscal transfer payment system, and develop a hierarchical fiscal management system encompassing the sharing of tax, rents and profits.展开更多
As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incor...As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incorporates fiscal and monetary policies,this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to fiscal shocks.Our study finds that during the occurrence of a fiscal shock,the growth rate of broad money supply M2 substantially increased,indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to fiscal policy expansion.Based on this empirical finding,this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the fiscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination.Our analysis shows that monetary policy coordination will significantly boost the economic stimulus effect of fiscal policy,generating a fiscal crowding-in effect.From the perspective of China’s institutional strength,this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the fiscal crowdingin effect uncovered in the research literature,and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective.This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.展开更多
After its founding in 1949,the People’s Republic of China'started to modernize its fiscal system-an essential part of its broader modernization drive.Its unified and wellfunctioning fiscal system supported the st...After its founding in 1949,the People’s Republic of China'started to modernize its fiscal system-an essential part of its broader modernization drive.Its unified and wellfunctioning fiscal system supported the stability of the nascent government,and helped stabilize the economy and restore public order after then.In the era of the planned economy,public finance in the country was put at the service of economic plans while striving to reach a fiscal equilibrium,which was of great significance at that time.Economic equilibrium,including fiscal,credit and material equilibrium,was perceived as a manifestation of macroeconomic stability.Problems encountered during the era of the planned economy led to the launch of a reform and opening-up program-a brilliant chapter in modern Chinese history.The Third Plenum of the 11th CPC Central Committee marks a brand-new era of reform and opening-up.In this transformative period,China’s fiscal system was initially decentralized to keep abreast of its“planned commodity economy.”After the goal of socialist market economic reform was announced in 1992,China’s fiscal reforms embarked on a fast track.As China'strived to build a public finance system compatible with a socialist market economic system,fiscal reforms took place and fiscal policy played a more important role in macroeconomic regulation.The Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee held in November 2013 set the goal of the reform to establish a modern fiscal system.Afterwards,China deepened its fiscal reforms,focusing on budget management,taxation and reform of central-local fiscal relations.展开更多
Based on the Decisions of the CPC Central Committee on Some Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms and the Overall Plan on Deepening Fiscal and Tax Reforms, this paper presents a systematic assessme...Based on the Decisions of the CPC Central Committee on Some Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms and the Overall Plan on Deepening Fiscal and Tax Reforms, this paper presents a systematic assessment of the progress of China's new round of fiscal and tax reforms from November 2013 to October 2016 with the following findings. Reform of the budgetary management system has yielded initial results yet remains in the preliminary stage. While progress has been made in reforming indirect taxes, the reform of direct taxes is slow and presents a major obstacle. Despite breakthroughs, the progress of public finance reforms remains slow and impedes reforms on other fronts. Fiscal and tax reforms are uneven and should be implemented in coordination. Fiscal and tax reforms should more vigorously support overall reforms.展开更多
Agents response equilibrium (ARE) model has been taken advantage of to build a multi-agent system for analyzing fiscal policy effect. Through establishing various types of economic entities and endowing them with abil...Agents response equilibrium (ARE) model has been taken advantage of to build a multi-agent system for analyzing fiscal policy effect. Through establishing various types of economic entities and endowing them with abilities to react and make decision, the whole system will evolve to new conditions in response to policy change. Compared with different scenarios, it can be concluded that when raising taxation ratio, sectoral scale will shrink to some extent. But supported by government expenditure, certain sectors could be kept in comparatively larger production scale.展开更多
The argument over fiscal decentralization and carbon dioxide emission(CO2)reduction has received much attention.However,evidence to back this claim is limited.Economic theory predicts that fiscal decentralization a...The argument over fiscal decentralization and carbon dioxide emission(CO2)reduction has received much attention.However,evidence to back this claim is limited.Economic theory predicts that fiscal decentralization affects environmental quality,but the specifics of this relationship are still up for debate.Some scholars noted that fiscal decentralization might lead to a race to the top,whereas others contended that it would result in a race to the bottom.In light of the current debates in environmental and development economics,this study aims to provide insight into how this relationship may function in South Africa from 1960 to 2020.In contrast to the existing research,the present study uses a novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation approach to assess the positive and negative changes in fiscal decentralization,scale effect,technique effect,technological innovation,foreign direct investment,energy consumption,industrial growth,and trade openness on CO2emissions.The following are the main findings:(i)Fiscal decentralization had a CO2emission reduction impact in the short and long run,highlighting the presence of the race to the top approach.(ii)Economic growth(as represented by the scale effect)eroded ecological integrity.However,its square(as expressed by technique effect)aided in strengthening ecological protection,validating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.(iii)CO2emissions were driven by energy utilization,trade openness,industrial value-added,and foreign direct investment,whereas technological innovation boosted ecological integrity.Findings suggest that further fiscal decentralization should be undertaken through further devolution of power to local entities,particularly regarding environmental policy issues,to maintain South Africa’s ecological sustainability.South Africa should also establish policies to improve environmental sustainability by strengthening a lower layer of government and clarifying responsibilities at the national and local levels to fulfill the energy-saving functions of fiscal expenditures.展开更多
The fiscal sustainability of China and the United States is of major concern globally. Based on comparative data analysis, this paper reveals that the government debt level of both countries is within the normal range...The fiscal sustainability of China and the United States is of major concern globally. Based on comparative data analysis, this paper reveals that the government debt level of both countries is within the normal range. Robust growth prospects of both countries will also vigorously support their future mitigation of government debt level. Comparatively speaking, China's government debt level is healthy and, despite extensive concerns, even its local government debt is not very high. The assessment that China may encounter a crisis is not supported by evidence. Yet in the long run, both countries will face pressures from increased fiscal spending on elder care and healthcare stemming from an ageing population, which will threaten their fiscal sustainability. These challenges require both countries to speed up reforms of elder care and healthcare. Specifically, China needs to focus on elder care reforms and the US should attach more importance to healthcare reforms.展开更多
Based on the overall consideration of individual behaviors of Ricardian and non-Ricardian households, this paper develops a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model to form a relatively systema...Based on the overall consideration of individual behaviors of Ricardian and non-Ricardian households, this paper develops a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model to form a relatively systematic research framework for analyzing the economic effects of structural fiscal instruments. Our study findsthat great differences exist in the macroeconomic effects of different fiscal instruments, suggesting that the government should prudently select these fiscal instruments in fiscal macro-control. The simulating results of fiscal shocks show that the effect of tax cut is superior to the effect of increased spending. In the context of slowing economic growth and less potent stimulation policy, the government should transform its previous regulatory approach of fiscal policy and shift from hefty spending stimulus policy to structural tax cuts. This paper believes that China should step up the implementation of public-private partnership, increase its spending on social security, healthcare, pension and public services and facilitate the transition toward a service-based government; and that tax policy should focus on structural tax cuts on consumption to promote the transition of demand structure toward consumption-driven.展开更多
Using a spatial econometric model, this paper investigates strategic interaction among provincial governments regarding expenditures, the mechanism behind expenditures interaction and their effects on economic growth ...Using a spatial econometric model, this paper investigates strategic interaction among provincial governments regarding expenditures, the mechanism behind expenditures interaction and their effects on economic growth in China. Our conclusion is as follows: Significant strategic interaction exists among provincial governments regarding expenditures mainly owing to fiscal competition mechanism in China, and expenditures interaction has changed significantly since tax sharing system reform, which has had positive effects on regional economic growth. This conclusion has significant implications for the optimization of public functions, size and structure of local governments in China.展开更多
In contrast to the traditional Western approach to macro-fiscal management,China’s proactive fiscal policy is founded on a people-centered development philosophy and,with distinctive Chinese characteristics,is a sign...In contrast to the traditional Western approach to macro-fiscal management,China’s proactive fiscal policy is founded on a people-centered development philosophy and,with distinctive Chinese characteristics,is a significant policy innovation of macroeconomic management in the Chinese modernization.Although there are notable distinctions between the Western“Keynesian”and the“nonKeynesian”schools of thought,both of these approaches’core policy goals and methodological roots are the same,composing the traditional Western macro-fiscal approach.This approach faces increasing real dilemmas.China’s proactive fiscal policy,however,places greater emphasis on future potential growth rates in addition to equilibrium between supply and demand,achieving a fiscal policy transformation with a new approach.In this paper we argue that with such a new approach,China should reconsider the nature and reasonable level of the fiscal deficit,the function and risk assessment criteria of government debt,the scope and effects of reductions in taxes and fees,its approach and focus of demand management,and the costs and resulting efficiencies of policies in order to develop a new fiscal policy paradigm that is more in line with its stated goals.展开更多
This paper employs a stochastic endogenous growth model extended to the case of a recursive utility function which can disentangle intertemporal substitution from risk aversion to analyze productive government expendi...This paper employs a stochastic endogenous growth model extended to the case of a recursive utility function which can disentangle intertemporal substitution from risk aversion to analyze productive government expenditure and optimal fiscal policy, particularly stresses the importance of factor income. First, the explicit solutions of the central planner's stochastic optimization problem are derived, the growth maximizing and welfare-maximizing government expenditure policies are obtained and their standing in conflict or coincidence depends upon intertemporal substitution. Second, the explicit solutions of the representative individual's stochastic optimization problem which permits to tax on capital income and labor income separately are derived ,and it is found that the effect of risk on growth crucially depends on the degree of risk aversion,the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the capital income share. Finally, a flexible optimal tax policy which can be internally adjusted to a certain extent is derived, and it is found that the distribution of factor income plays an important role in designing the optimal tax policy.展开更多
Controversies exist in literature regarding what indicators should be employed to measure China's fiscal decentralization. This paper measures China's fiscal decentralization by the sharing ratios of county-le...Controversies exist in literature regarding what indicators should be employed to measure China's fiscal decentralization. This paper measures China's fiscal decentralization by the sharing ratios of county-level VAT and corporate income tax(CIT). This approach avoids such problems as homogeneous denominator, and reflects the intricate interactions between governments at different levels. Based on extensive sources including the National Fiscal Statistical Information at Prefecture and County Levels and China County(City) Socio-Economic Statistical Yearbook over the 1998-2007 period, our estimation and analysis led to the following findings:(1) Since 2002, counties have retained a falling share of revenues;(2) a multidimensional horizontal comparison reveals a pattern in the county-level tax sharing ratio, i.e. counties in central and eastern regions retain a higher share of tax revenues compared with those in western and northwestern regions.These findings explain the fiscal difficulties at the grassroots level, and can be used to conduct a quantitative analysis of the determinants and economic effects of China's fiscal decentralization."展开更多
Global shocks potentially distort economy’s achieved equilibria.Considering the 2020 global crude oil price shock and the 2019 coronavirus disease pandemic,this study proposes an energy and environment integrated gen...Global shocks potentially distort economy’s achieved equilibria.Considering the 2020 global crude oil price shock and the 2019 coronavirus disease pandemic,this study proposes an energy and environment integrated general equilibrium model to analyze the economic,energy,and environmental effects of these global shocks on Nigeria,a developing,oil-producing,oil-dependent,and oil-exporting country.Furthermore,the mitigating roles of a fiscal stimulus–response package(palliative)are investigated and analyzed.Generally,the developed model predicts a decline in the level of economic activities.The study results are unsurprising due to Nigeria’s heavy reliance on crude oil.However,sectorial-specific impacts exist as some sectors experience output declines while others do not.Environmental quality is improved since more carbon is abated,nonetheless.Carbon intensities increased given that the price effects outweighed the quantity effects—reduced emission results from reduced economic activities and not from technological progress.The results further show a revenue-abatement paradox;a fixed carbon tax approach minimizes the tax revenue loss but may discourage carbon abatement.Conversely,the ad valorem and specific carbon tax systems encourage carbon abatement but reduce carbon tax revenues.The government’s fiscal policy stimulus-response(palliative)action dampens the impact of these global shocks on both the domestic agents and the overall economy.The results are robust and can be applied to the experiences of other developing oil-producing,oil-exporting,and oil-dependent economies.展开更多
This paper investigates how fiscal spending on livelihood improves multidimensional household poverty in China.Based on the panel data of the“China Health and Nutrition Survey”(CHNS)for 2004-2015,we measured the chr...This paper investigates how fiscal spending on livelihood improves multidimensional household poverty in China.Based on the panel data of the“China Health and Nutrition Survey”(CHNS)for 2004-2015,we measured the chronic multidimensional poverty index for Chinese households.We have created a multitiered model for empirical analysis.Our findings suggest that multidimensional poverty in China is predominantly capacity poverty.Fiscal spending on livelihoods significantly reduces multidimensional poverty for Chinese households,especially rural households.Investments on livelihoods are more poverty-reducing than transfer spending on livelihoods.As an innovation,this paper offers a dynamic analysis of the effects of livelihood spending on multidimensional household poverty controlling for heterogeneity between individual households and across regions.Our conclusion suggests that the government should improve policy arrangements to increase social opportunities and support sustainable development capacities for the poor,while enhancing protective social security systems.展开更多
摘要Against the backdrop of advancing fiscal digitization,budget management methods and fiscal operation logic are undergoing changes.Existing studies mostly discuss the effectiveness of digital fiscal reforms from the perspective of technological application or efficiency improvement,but pay relatively insufficient attention to how it affects the standardization of interdepartmental budget fund allocation.Based on this,taking the integrated budget management reform as the entry point,this paper explores the action path of fiscal digitization on the standardization of interdepartmental budget fund allocation from two levels:institutional foundation and operational mechanism.The study holds that fiscal digitization does not directly determine the allocation result of budget funds among departments,but changes the institutional environment relied on by budget allocation behavior by unifying budget rules,connecting budget management processes,and reconstructing budget information structure,thereby forming more stable and enforceable institutional constraints on departmental budget allocation.On this basis,fiscal digitization further exerts institutional constraints during the budget execution stage by embedding supervision and auditing functions into the budget execution process and improving the transparency of budget operation,inhibiting arbitrariness and strategic adjustments in interdepartmental budget allocation.Thus,the standardization of interdepartmental budget fund allocation is gradually strengthened,and the improvement of allocation efficiency is more reflected as a natural result under standardized constraints.The analysis of this paper helps to understand the governance effect of fiscal digitization from the perspective of institutional operation and provides theoretical reference for further improving the interdepartmental budget fund allocation mechanism.
摘要The digital economy has become a core driver of global growth.In 2024,China's imports and exports of digitally deliverable services reached RMB 2.9 trillion,a year-onyear increase of 6.5%,with the scale of digital service exports ranking among the world's highest.However,domestic digital products largely rely on low prices to enter overseas markets,and there is a significant gap between China and the U.S.and Europe in terms of core algorithms,data compliance,international standards,and pricing power.
基金The national-level College Student Innovation Training Program project,“The Mechanism,Effects,and Reform Path of Vertical Fiscal Imbalance at the City and County Level on Multi-dimensional Urban-Rural Gaps at the County Level”(Project No.:202510564154)。
摘要This paper explores the theoretical mechanisms through which vertical fiscal imbalance influences the transfer of rural surplus labor.Using provincial-level panel data from 1998 to 2017,it empirically examines the effects of vertical fiscal imbalance on this labor transfer process.The findings indicate that:(1)Currently,vertical fiscal imbalance has a significant direct hindering effect on the transfer of rural surplus labor.(2)Vertical fiscal imbalance hinders the transfer of the rural labor force by slowing down regional economic growth and limiting the effectiveness of regional human capital investment.The indirect effect of the former is weaker than the indirect effect of the latter.
基金supported by the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Grant No.72373148).
摘要China’s path to modernization,which embodies a unique developmental model characterized by high-quality development,common prosperity,harmony with nature,and peaceful coexistence,is a multifaceted process that advances progress on multiple fronts.This paper applies two analytical lenses to the study of intergovernmental fiscal relations:multi-level governance,where different levels of government interact,and multi-objective decision-making,where multiple goals are pursued simultaneously.From this perspective,it puts forward three core propositions.First,the evolution of fiscal relations is shaped primarily by the central government’s need to balance incentivization,coordination,and control.Second,these relations are constrained by objective factors such as the output elasticity of loacl government actions,cost coefficients,externalities,and uncertainty.Third,the effectiveness of both central and local governments depends on the design of fiscal relations,as well as on their objectives,the output elasticity of actions,and costs.In essence,effective intergovernmental fiscal relations require a balance between centralized leadership and local initiative.Using this framework,the paper examines how changes in China’s fiscal system have influenced modernization across different historical periods,offering a theoretical model tailored to China’s national context.
基金Financial support from Guangdong Science and Technology(20230505)Guangdong Provincial Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project(GD20SQ25)Guangdong Provincial Special Fund for Science and Technology Innovation Strategy in 2024(Cultivation of College Students’Science and Technology Innovation)(pdjh2024a391)during preparation of this manuscript.
摘要Under the dual drivers of global climate governance and carbon neutrality goals,agricultural carbon emission reduction has become a pivotal component of regional green transformation.This study focuses on Guangdong,a major province,employing the LMDI decomposition mode to systematically analyze the driving mechanis of agricultural carbon emissions.It reveals that the low ecological compensation standard,industrial path dependence,and high-carbon energy lock-in consti-tute core constraints.The research finds that the absence of ecological compensation standards and the structural imbalance of traditional subsidy policies induce diminishing marginal benefits in carbon reduction due to structural imbalances,while persistent funding shortages in low-carbon technology R&D further weaken emission reduction efficacy,exacerbating compatibility contradictions between emission policies and production practices.Through the comparison of domestic and foreign experiences,it is found that under the global wave of low-carbon transformation in agriculture,the ecological compensation optimization layer should establish a calculation system for the carbon sink value of cultivated land and differentiated compensation standards;the fiscal and taxation policy coordination layer should implement a tiered carbon tax on agricultural inputs and carbon sink pledge financing incentives.Constructing a fiscal expenditure and fiscal and taxation coordination mechanism that suits regional characteristics is the key path to resolving the contradiction between the technical economy and ecological sustainability of emission reduction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Youth Project“Research on the Mechanism and Policy Design of the Impact of Rural Migrant Urbanization on Local Government Education Investment”(Grant No.72103034)the Distinguished Young Scholar Funding Project of the University of International Business and Economics(Grant No.21JQ11).
摘要This paper leverages the Opinions of the State Council on Further Promoting the Reform of the Household Registration System as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the impact of rural migrant urbanization on local government expenditures in science and technology(S&T)and education.Employing a generalized difference-in-differences(generalized-DID)approach and panel data from 271 Chinese prefecture-level and above-level cities spanning 2003–2019,we find that household registration reform driven by this urbanization process significantly increased the absolute level as well as the fiscal share of S&T and education spending.Mechanism analyses indicate that rural migrant urbanization promotes these expenditures through two channels:increasing the overall local fiscal revenue and encouraging a greater proportion of the fiscal resources to be allocated to these sectors.The findings uncover the current evolving trends in fiscal resource allocation due to rural migrant urbanization and provide empirical evidence for optimizing the provision of public services and enhancing the potential of long-term economic development.
摘要For a large country like China, the handling of intergovernmental fiscal relations must create compatible incentives to central and local governments. China initially created a fiscal management system characterized by tax sharing in 1994, basically meeting the needs of its socialist market economic system. Yet further improvements must be made to the assignment of administrative authority and expenditure responsibilities, revenue allocation and the fiscal transfer payment system. In handling intergovernmental fiscal relations, great attention must be given to the system's stability to give play to its function of incentives and restraints. China must create a hierarchical fiscal management system in line with its modern fiscal system. According to the requirements of this system, China should further standardize the division between administrative authority and expenditure responsibilities, standardize the division of government revenues, formalize a fiscal transfer payment system, and develop a hierarchical fiscal management system encompassing the sharing of tax, rents and profits.
基金a result of the Major Project of the National Social Science Fund of China (NSSFC)“Study on Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy Coordination under the Dual Economic Circulations”(Grant No.20&ZD104)
摘要As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incorporates fiscal and monetary policies,this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to fiscal shocks.Our study finds that during the occurrence of a fiscal shock,the growth rate of broad money supply M2 substantially increased,indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to fiscal policy expansion.Based on this empirical finding,this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the fiscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination.Our analysis shows that monetary policy coordination will significantly boost the economic stimulus effect of fiscal policy,generating a fiscal crowding-in effect.From the perspective of China’s institutional strength,this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the fiscal crowdingin effect uncovered in the research literature,and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective.This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.
摘要After its founding in 1949,the People’s Republic of China'started to modernize its fiscal system-an essential part of its broader modernization drive.Its unified and wellfunctioning fiscal system supported the stability of the nascent government,and helped stabilize the economy and restore public order after then.In the era of the planned economy,public finance in the country was put at the service of economic plans while striving to reach a fiscal equilibrium,which was of great significance at that time.Economic equilibrium,including fiscal,credit and material equilibrium,was perceived as a manifestation of macroeconomic stability.Problems encountered during the era of the planned economy led to the launch of a reform and opening-up program-a brilliant chapter in modern Chinese history.The Third Plenum of the 11th CPC Central Committee marks a brand-new era of reform and opening-up.In this transformative period,China’s fiscal system was initially decentralized to keep abreast of its“planned commodity economy.”After the goal of socialist market economic reform was announced in 1992,China’s fiscal reforms embarked on a fast track.As China'strived to build a public finance system compatible with a socialist market economic system,fiscal reforms took place and fiscal policy played a more important role in macroeconomic regulation.The Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee held in November 2013 set the goal of the reform to establish a modern fiscal system.Afterwards,China deepened its fiscal reforms,focusing on budget management,taxation and reform of central-local fiscal relations.
摘要Based on the Decisions of the CPC Central Committee on Some Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms and the Overall Plan on Deepening Fiscal and Tax Reforms, this paper presents a systematic assessment of the progress of China's new round of fiscal and tax reforms from November 2013 to October 2016 with the following findings. Reform of the budgetary management system has yielded initial results yet remains in the preliminary stage. While progress has been made in reforming indirect taxes, the reform of direct taxes is slow and presents a major obstacle. Despite breakthroughs, the progress of public finance reforms remains slow and impedes reforms on other fronts. Fiscal and tax reforms are uneven and should be implemented in coordination. Fiscal and tax reforms should more vigorously support overall reforms.
摘要Agents response equilibrium (ARE) model has been taken advantage of to build a multi-agent system for analyzing fiscal policy effect. Through establishing various types of economic entities and endowing them with abilities to react and make decision, the whole system will evolve to new conditions in response to policy change. Compared with different scenarios, it can be concluded that when raising taxation ratio, sectoral scale will shrink to some extent. But supported by government expenditure, certain sectors could be kept in comparatively larger production scale.
摘要The argument over fiscal decentralization and carbon dioxide emission(CO2)reduction has received much attention.However,evidence to back this claim is limited.Economic theory predicts that fiscal decentralization affects environmental quality,but the specifics of this relationship are still up for debate.Some scholars noted that fiscal decentralization might lead to a race to the top,whereas others contended that it would result in a race to the bottom.In light of the current debates in environmental and development economics,this study aims to provide insight into how this relationship may function in South Africa from 1960 to 2020.In contrast to the existing research,the present study uses a novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation approach to assess the positive and negative changes in fiscal decentralization,scale effect,technique effect,technological innovation,foreign direct investment,energy consumption,industrial growth,and trade openness on CO2emissions.The following are the main findings:(i)Fiscal decentralization had a CO2emission reduction impact in the short and long run,highlighting the presence of the race to the top approach.(ii)Economic growth(as represented by the scale effect)eroded ecological integrity.However,its square(as expressed by technique effect)aided in strengthening ecological protection,validating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.(iii)CO2emissions were driven by energy utilization,trade openness,industrial value-added,and foreign direct investment,whereas technological innovation boosted ecological integrity.Findings suggest that further fiscal decentralization should be undertaken through further devolution of power to local entities,particularly regarding environmental policy issues,to maintain South Africa’s ecological sustainability.South Africa should also establish policies to improve environmental sustainability by strengthening a lower layer of government and clarifying responsibilities at the national and local levels to fulfill the energy-saving functions of fiscal expenditures.
摘要The fiscal sustainability of China and the United States is of major concern globally. Based on comparative data analysis, this paper reveals that the government debt level of both countries is within the normal range. Robust growth prospects of both countries will also vigorously support their future mitigation of government debt level. Comparatively speaking, China's government debt level is healthy and, despite extensive concerns, even its local government debt is not very high. The assessment that China may encounter a crisis is not supported by evidence. Yet in the long run, both countries will face pressures from increased fiscal spending on elder care and healthcare stemming from an ageing population, which will threaten their fiscal sustainability. These challenges require both countries to speed up reforms of elder care and healthcare. Specifically, China needs to focus on elder care reforms and the US should attach more importance to healthcare reforms.
摘要Based on the overall consideration of individual behaviors of Ricardian and non-Ricardian households, this paper develops a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model to form a relatively systematic research framework for analyzing the economic effects of structural fiscal instruments. Our study findsthat great differences exist in the macroeconomic effects of different fiscal instruments, suggesting that the government should prudently select these fiscal instruments in fiscal macro-control. The simulating results of fiscal shocks show that the effect of tax cut is superior to the effect of increased spending. In the context of slowing economic growth and less potent stimulation policy, the government should transform its previous regulatory approach of fiscal policy and shift from hefty spending stimulus policy to structural tax cuts. This paper believes that China should step up the implementation of public-private partnership, increase its spending on social security, healthcare, pension and public services and facilitate the transition toward a service-based government; and that tax policy should focus on structural tax cuts on consumption to promote the transition of demand structure toward consumption-driven.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70750002)Department of Social Sciences, the Ministry of Education of China (08JZD0012)Department of Postgraduate Education, the Ministry of Education of China (Office of the State Council Academic Degrees Committee) (200904)
摘要Using a spatial econometric model, this paper investigates strategic interaction among provincial governments regarding expenditures, the mechanism behind expenditures interaction and their effects on economic growth in China. Our conclusion is as follows: Significant strategic interaction exists among provincial governments regarding expenditures mainly owing to fiscal competition mechanism in China, and expenditures interaction has changed significantly since tax sharing system reform, which has had positive effects on regional economic growth. This conclusion has significant implications for the optimization of public functions, size and structure of local governments in China.
摘要In contrast to the traditional Western approach to macro-fiscal management,China’s proactive fiscal policy is founded on a people-centered development philosophy and,with distinctive Chinese characteristics,is a significant policy innovation of macroeconomic management in the Chinese modernization.Although there are notable distinctions between the Western“Keynesian”and the“nonKeynesian”schools of thought,both of these approaches’core policy goals and methodological roots are the same,composing the traditional Western macro-fiscal approach.This approach faces increasing real dilemmas.China’s proactive fiscal policy,however,places greater emphasis on future potential growth rates in addition to equilibrium between supply and demand,achieving a fiscal policy transformation with a new approach.In this paper we argue that with such a new approach,China should reconsider the nature and reasonable level of the fiscal deficit,the function and risk assessment criteria of government debt,the scope and effects of reductions in taxes and fees,its approach and focus of demand management,and the costs and resulting efficiencies of policies in order to develop a new fiscal policy paradigm that is more in line with its stated goals.
摘要This paper employs a stochastic endogenous growth model extended to the case of a recursive utility function which can disentangle intertemporal substitution from risk aversion to analyze productive government expenditure and optimal fiscal policy, particularly stresses the importance of factor income. First, the explicit solutions of the central planner's stochastic optimization problem are derived, the growth maximizing and welfare-maximizing government expenditure policies are obtained and their standing in conflict or coincidence depends upon intertemporal substitution. Second, the explicit solutions of the representative individual's stochastic optimization problem which permits to tax on capital income and labor income separately are derived ,and it is found that the effect of risk on growth crucially depends on the degree of risk aversion,the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the capital income share. Finally, a flexible optimal tax policy which can be internally adjusted to a certain extent is derived, and it is found that the distribution of factor income plays an important role in designing the optimal tax policy.
摘要Controversies exist in literature regarding what indicators should be employed to measure China's fiscal decentralization. This paper measures China's fiscal decentralization by the sharing ratios of county-level VAT and corporate income tax(CIT). This approach avoids such problems as homogeneous denominator, and reflects the intricate interactions between governments at different levels. Based on extensive sources including the National Fiscal Statistical Information at Prefecture and County Levels and China County(City) Socio-Economic Statistical Yearbook over the 1998-2007 period, our estimation and analysis led to the following findings:(1) Since 2002, counties have retained a falling share of revenues;(2) a multidimensional horizontal comparison reveals a pattern in the county-level tax sharing ratio, i.e. counties in central and eastern regions retain a higher share of tax revenues compared with those in western and northwestern regions.These findings explain the fiscal difficulties at the grassroots level, and can be used to conduct a quantitative analysis of the determinants and economic effects of China's fiscal decentralization."
基金supported by the Key Projects of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research,Ministry of Education,(Grant No.:22JZD008).
摘要Global shocks potentially distort economy’s achieved equilibria.Considering the 2020 global crude oil price shock and the 2019 coronavirus disease pandemic,this study proposes an energy and environment integrated general equilibrium model to analyze the economic,energy,and environmental effects of these global shocks on Nigeria,a developing,oil-producing,oil-dependent,and oil-exporting country.Furthermore,the mitigating roles of a fiscal stimulus–response package(palliative)are investigated and analyzed.Generally,the developed model predicts a decline in the level of economic activities.The study results are unsurprising due to Nigeria’s heavy reliance on crude oil.However,sectorial-specific impacts exist as some sectors experience output declines while others do not.Environmental quality is improved since more carbon is abated,nonetheless.Carbon intensities increased given that the price effects outweighed the quantity effects—reduced emission results from reduced economic activities and not from technological progress.The results further show a revenue-abatement paradox;a fixed carbon tax approach minimizes the tax revenue loss but may discourage carbon abatement.Conversely,the ad valorem and specific carbon tax systems encourage carbon abatement but reduce carbon tax revenues.The government’s fiscal policy stimulus-response(palliative)action dampens the impact of these global shocks on both the domestic agents and the overall economy.The results are robust and can be applied to the experiences of other developing oil-producing,oil-exporting,and oil-dependent economies.
基金supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China(NSSFC)Project“Study on the Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Spending on Multidimensional Poverty”(Grant No.19BJY229).
摘要This paper investigates how fiscal spending on livelihood improves multidimensional household poverty in China.Based on the panel data of the“China Health and Nutrition Survey”(CHNS)for 2004-2015,we measured the chronic multidimensional poverty index for Chinese households.We have created a multitiered model for empirical analysis.Our findings suggest that multidimensional poverty in China is predominantly capacity poverty.Fiscal spending on livelihoods significantly reduces multidimensional poverty for Chinese households,especially rural households.Investments on livelihoods are more poverty-reducing than transfer spending on livelihoods.As an innovation,this paper offers a dynamic analysis of the effects of livelihood spending on multidimensional household poverty controlling for heterogeneity between individual households and across regions.Our conclusion suggests that the government should improve policy arrangements to increase social opportunities and support sustainable development capacities for the poor,while enhancing protective social security systems.