Summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin(YRB)is favored by two key factors in the lower troposphere:the tropical anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific and the extratropical northeasterly anomalies to t...Summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin(YRB)is favored by two key factors in the lower troposphere:the tropical anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific and the extratropical northeasterly anomalies to the north of the YRB.This study,however,found that approximately 46%of heavy rainfall events in the YRB occur when only one factor appears and the other is opposite signed.Accordingly,these heavy rainfall events can be categorized into two types:the extratropical northeasterly anomalies but tropical cyclonic anomaly(first unconventional type),and the tropical anticyclonic anomaly but extratropical southwesterly anomalies(second unconventional type).Anomalous water vapor convergence and upward motion exists for both types,but through different mechanisms.For the first type,the moisture convergence and upward motion are induced by a cyclonic anomaly over the YRB,which appears in the mid and lower troposphere and originates from the upstream region.For the second type,a mid-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over Lake Baikal extends southward and results in southwesterly anomalies over the YRB,in conjunction with the tropical anticyclonic anomaly.The southwesterly anomalies transport water vapor to the YRB and lead to upward motion through warm advection.This study emphasizes the role of mid-tropospheric circulations in inducing heavy rainfall in the YRB.展开更多
Downdrafts tend to suppress convection under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH);however,local short-term heavy rainfall(STHR)events still occur frequently in coastal cities,and predicting the ...Downdrafts tend to suppress convection under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH);however,local short-term heavy rainfall(STHR)events still occur frequently in coastal cities,and predicting the convective initiation(CI)of such processes remains challenging.Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and an automatic weather station(AWS)network,the meteorological conditions of STHR and non-rainfall(NR)events were compared and analyzed using hourly synthesis analysis methods.The findings are as follows.(1)Suppression by the WPSH results in stronger vertical upward motion during STHR events,with-0.04≤ω≤-0.03 Pa s-1,than during NR events,with -0.03≤ω≤-0.015 Pa s-1.(2)STHR events,with over 80% AWSs≥38℃,exhibit quicker temperature rises,higher peak temperatures,and more extensive areas of heat coverage compared to NR events,with only 16.5%AWSs≥38℃.(3)STHR events,with a convergence of the Q vector divergence of-0.4×10-11hPa-1s-3,compared to NR events,with a convergence of the Q vector divergence of-0.2×10-11hPa-1s-3,are also accompanied by more intense surface convergence and upward motion,conditions which reveal the significance of local dynamics in triggering such weather events.(4)The weaker suppressive effect of the WPSH,combined with a significant mesoscale thermodynamic force near the ground,creates a multiscale resonance effect,which is a key condition for triggering local convection.(5)The lower temperature–dew point temperature spread(T-Td)at 2 m and relative humidity below 850 hPa for STHR events indicate that moisture conditions are sufficient,but not necessary,for triggering local convection.This study provides new insights into CI mechanisms under the influence of the WPSH for STHR events,thus offering important clues for future improvements in forecasting capabilities.展开更多
Based on high-altitude and ground observation data and physical quantity field data,the diagnostic analysis of a heavy rainfall process in Hulunbuir City from July 18 to 20,2025 was conducted from the aspects of circu...Based on high-altitude and ground observation data and physical quantity field data,the diagnostic analysis of a heavy rainfall process in Hulunbuir City from July 18 to 20,2025 was conducted from the aspects of circulation patterns,influencing systems,dynamic conditions,moisture conditions and convective conditions,and the causes of the occurrence and development of this process were revealed.The study shows that the superposition of the upper-level trough,the ground cyclone,and the low-level jet stream formed strong water vapor transport,strong warm advection,and strong dynamic uplift in Hulunbuir,thereby leading to this heavy rainfall event.The forecasting ideas for short-term heavy rainfall were pointed out to provide certain scientific references for future forecasting and prediction work.展开更多
From 26 October to 2 November 2024,Spain experienced a record-breaking rainfall event,with the most intense episode appearing in Valencia Province.During the event,Turis station recorded a historic 24-hour precipitati...From 26 October to 2 November 2024,Spain experienced a record-breaking rainfall event,with the most intense episode appearing in Valencia Province.During the event,Turis station recorded a historic 24-hour precipitation of 710.8 mm,exceeding the national annual average.This resulting flood led to widespread disruption and significant societal impacts.Synoptic analyses reveal that the event was dominated by a deep cut-off low extending through the entire troposphere and persisting for approximately 186 h.Background conditions were characterized by upper-level divergence,mid-tropospheric warm advection,and a strong southeasterly low-level jet,which promoted vertical motion and sustained moisture transport.The steep,funnel-shaped terrain along the eastern Iberian coast further triggered and enhanced the local convection.A 10-day backward Lagrangian moisture tracing using the HYSPLIT model identified the Mediterranean Sea as the primary moisture source(78.1%),followed by northwestern Africa(8.5%)and central-eastern Europehe Black Sea(6.2%).Low-level moisture transport was mainly driven by the cut-off low and a persistent Mediterranean high,while mid-to upper-level trajectories were associated with a preceding low-pressure system over the Mediterranean and the subtropical Atlantic high.These systems acted in sequence to relay moisture toward the Valencia region,and under the influence of the strongly rotating and convergent cut-off low—along with terrain-induced lifting—this moisture was rapidly uplifted,ultimately triggering the extreme rainfall event.展开更多
With the intensification of climate change,frequent short-duration heavy rainfall events exert significant impacts on human society and natural environment.Traditional rainfall recognition methods show limitations,inc...With the intensification of climate change,frequent short-duration heavy rainfall events exert significant impacts on human society and natural environment.Traditional rainfall recognition methods show limitations,including poor timeliness,inadequate handling of imbalanced data,and low accuracy when dealing with these events.This paper proposes a method based on CD-Pix2Pix model for inverting short-duration heavy rainfall events,aiming to improve the accuracy of inversion.The method integrates the attention mechanism network CSM-Net and the Dropblock module with a Bayesian optimized loss function to improve imbalanced data processing and enhance overall performance.This study utilizes multisource heterogeneous data,including radar composite reflectivity,FY-4B satellite data,and ground automatic station rainfall observations data,with China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS)data as the target labels fror the inversion task.Experimental results show that the enhanced method outperforms conventional rainfall inversion methods across multiple evaluation metrics,particularly demonstrating superior performance in Threat Score(TS,0.495),Probability of Detection(POD,0.857),and False Alarm Ratio(FAR,0.143).展开更多
The Sichuan Basin(SCB),China has a high incidence of extremely persistent heavy rainfall(EPHR)events.The EPHR events from 2009 to 2019 in the SCB were mainly concentrated over the northern and northwestern windward sl...The Sichuan Basin(SCB),China has a high incidence of extremely persistent heavy rainfall(EPHR)events.The EPHR events from 2009 to 2019 in the SCB were mainly concentrated over the northern and northwestern windward slopes and the central basin.They occurred from June to September,but especially in July,and peaked at 0300 LST.ERA5 reanalysis data and objective classification were used to investigate the synoptic patterns and their effects.There were three synoptic patterns during EPHR events,all accompanied by a Southwest Vortex.The location and intensity of the Southwest Vortex,thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau(TP),and low-level winds can greatly affect the intensity and spatial distribution of EPHR.When the Southwest Vortex was located in the western SCB and there were southerly low-level jets(LLJs),convergence and upslope wind would lead to EPHR over the northwestern or northern windward slopes.If there was no LLJ and the whole SCB was under the center of the Southwest Vortex,nocturnal EPHR was controlled by the internal circulation of the Southwest Vortex and the updraft generated by the thermal forcing of the TP,and the rainfall was weaker.The southeastern entrance of the SCB was a key area where the low-level wind dominated the nocturnal peak of EPHR.The nocturnal strengthened southeasterly wind in the key area is attributable to inertial oscillation,and the topographic friction plays an essential role in transporting momentum and moisture into the basin by generating easterly and northeasterly ageostrophic winds.展开更多
Nusantara,the new capital city of Indonesia,and its surrounding areas experienced intense heavy rainfall on 15-16 March 2022,leading to devastating and widespread flooding.However,the factors triggering such intense h...Nusantara,the new capital city of Indonesia,and its surrounding areas experienced intense heavy rainfall on 15-16 March 2022,leading to devastating and widespread flooding.However,the factors triggering such intense heavy rainfall and the underlying physical mechanisms are still not fully understood.Using high-resolution GSMaP(Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation)data,we show that a mesoscale convective system(MCS)was the primary cause of the heavy rainfall event.The rainfall peak occurred during the MCS's mature stage at 1800 UTC 15 March 2022,and diminished as it entered the dissipation stage.To understand the large-scale environmental factors affecting the MCS event,we analyzed contributions from the MJO,equatorial waves,and low-frequency variability to column water vapor and moisture flux convergence.Results indicate a substantial influence of the MJO and equatorial waves on lower-level(boundary layer)meridional moisture flux convergence during the pre-MCS stage and initiation,with their contributions accounting for up to80%during the growth phase.Moreover,while La Nina and the Asian monsoon had negligible impacts on MCS moisture supply,we find a large contribution from the residual term of the water vapour budget during the maturation and decay phases of the MCS.This suggests that local forcing(such as small-scale convection,local evaporation,land-surface feedback,and topography)also contributed to modulation of the intensity and duration of the MCS.The results of this study can help in our understanding of the potential causes of extreme rainfall in Nusantara and could be leveraged to improve rainstorm forecasting and risk management across the region in the future.展开更多
Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we invest...Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we investigated the differences in microphysical characteristics of heavy rainfall events during the period of 10-15 May 2022 based on the combined observations from 11 S-band polarimetric radars in south China.The conclusions are as follows:(1)WR has the highest radar echo top height,the strongest radar echo at all altitudes,the highest lightning density,and the most active ice-phase process,which suggests that the convection is the most vigorous in the WR,moderate in the FR,and the weakest in the SR.(2)Three types of rainfall are all marine-type precipitation,the massweighted mean diameter(Dm,mm)and the intercept parameter(Nw,mm-1 m-3)of the raindrops in the WR are the largest.(3)The WR possesses the highest proportion of graupel compared with the FR and SR,and stronger updrafts and more abundant water vapor supply may lead to larger raindrops during the melting and collision-coalescence processes.(4)Over all the heights,liquid and ice water content in the WR are higher than those in the SR and FR,the ratio of ice to liquid water content in the WR is as high as 27%when ZH exceeds 50 dBZ,definitely higher than that in the SR and FR,indicating that the active ice-phase process existing in the WR is conducive to the formation of heavy rainfall.展开更多
During the April-June raining season,warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR) and frontal heavy rainfall(FR) often occur in the south of China,causing natural disasters.In this study,the microphysical characteristics of WR and ...During the April-June raining season,warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR) and frontal heavy rainfall(FR) often occur in the south of China,causing natural disasters.In this study,the microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events from 2016 to 2022 are analyzed by using 2-dimensional video disdrometer(2DVD) data in the south of China.The microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events are quite different.Compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D 100 mm h-1) for WR and FR events are also different.Raindrops from C3 contribute the most to the precipitation of WR events,and raindrops from C2 contribute the most to the precipitation of FR events.For C2 and C3,compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D <1 mm and D~3-4.5 mm.Moreover,the shape and slope(μ-A) relationships and the radar reflectivity and rain rate(Z-R) relationships of WR and FR events are quite different in each rain rate class.The investigation of the difference in microphysical characteristics between WR and FR events provide useful information for radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and numerical prediction.展开更多
Persistent heavy rainfall events (PHR events) comprise one category of weather- and climate- related extreme events. Based on daily rainfall data measured in China during the period of 1951-2004, several quantitativ...Persistent heavy rainfall events (PHR events) comprise one category of weather- and climate- related extreme events. Based on daily rainfall data measured in China during the period of 1951-2004, several quantitative criteria were developed to define PHR events by means of their precipitation intensity, temporal duration, spatial extent and persistence. Then a semi-objective classification based on these criteria was applied to summer daily rainfall data to identify all PHR events. A total of 197 events were observed during the study period. All events were further classified into 5 categories according to their comprehensive intensity; into 3 types according to their circulation regime; and into 8 groups according to the geographic locations of their rainbands. Based on these different classifications, finally, the behaviors of 130 PHR events identified as the most severe, severe and moderate categories since the year of 1951, including characteristics of the spatial and temporal distributions of their frequencies, intensities, and rainbands, were investigated in order to present a comprehensive description of the PHR events. The results will be helpful to the future study of revealing and understanding the processes that govern the production of the PHR events and to the improvement of the forecasts of the PHR events.展开更多
The initiation mechanism of debris flow is regarded as the key step in understanding the debrisflow processes of occurrence, development and damage. Moreover, migration, accumulation and blocking effects of fine parti...The initiation mechanism of debris flow is regarded as the key step in understanding the debrisflow processes of occurrence, development and damage. Moreover, migration, accumulation and blocking effects of fine particles in soil will lead to soil failure and then develop into debris flow. Based on this hypothesis and considering the three factors of slope gradient, rainfall duration and rainfall intensity, 16 flume experiments were designed using the method of orthogonal design and completed in a laboratory. Particle composition changes in slope toe, volumetric water content, fine particle movement characteristics and soil failure mechanism were analyzed and understood as follows: the soil has complex, random and unstable structures, which causes remarkable pore characteristics of poor connectivity, non-uniformity and easy variation. The major factors that influence fine particle migration are rainfall intensity and slope. Rainfall intensity dominates particle movement, whereby high intensity rainfall induces a large number of mass movement and sharp fluctuation, causing more fine particles to accumulate at the steep slope toe. The slope toe plays an important role in water collection and fine particleaccumulation. Both fine particle migration and coarse particle movement appears similar fluctuation. Fine particle migration is interrupted in unconnected pores, causing pore blockage and fine particle accumulation, which then leads to the formation of a weak layer and further soil failure or collapses. Fine particle movement also causes debris flow formation in two ways: movement on the soil surface and migration inside the soil. The results verify the hypothesis that the function of fine particle migration in soil failure process is conducive for further understanding the formation mechanism of soil failure and debris flow initiation.展开更多
A sustained heavy rainfall event occurred over the Sichuan basin in southwest China during 10–18 August 2020,showing pronounced diurnal rainfall variations with nighttime peak and afternoon minimum values,except on t...A sustained heavy rainfall event occurred over the Sichuan basin in southwest China during 10–18 August 2020,showing pronounced diurnal rainfall variations with nighttime peak and afternoon minimum values,except on the first day.Results show that the westward extension of the anomalously strong western Pacific subtropical high was conducive to the maintenance of a southerly low-level jet(LLJ)in and to the southeast of the basin,which favored continuous water vapor transport and abnormally high precipitable water in the basin.The diurnal cycle of rainfall over the basin was closely related to the periodic oscillation of the LLJ in both wind speed and direction that was caused by the combination of inertial oscillation and terrain thermal forcing.The nocturnally enhanced rainfall was produced by moist convection mostly initiated during the evening hours over the southwest part of the basin where high convective available potential energy with moister near-surface moist air was present.The convective initiation took place as cold air from either previous precipitating clouds from the western Sichuan Plateau or a larger-scale northerly flow met a warm and humid current from the south.It was the slantwise lifting of the warm,moist airflow above the cold air,often facilitated by southwest vortices and quasi-geostrophic ascent,that released the convective instability and produced heavy rainfall.展开更多
Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager(AGRI)clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed.The forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor(WV)channels with conventional ob...Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager(AGRI)clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed.The forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor(WV)channels with conventional observations for the“21·7”Henan extremely heavy rainfall is analyzed and compared with a baseline test that assimilates only conventional observations in this study.The results show that the 24-h cumulative precipitation forecast by the assimilation experiment with the addition of the AGRI exceeds 500 mm,compared to a maximum value of 532.6 mm measured by the national meteorological stations,and that the location of the maximum precipitation is consistent with the observations.The results for the short periods of intense precipitation processes are that the simulation of the location and intensity of the 3-h cumulative precipitation is also relatively accurate.The analysis increment shows that the main difference between the two sets of assimilation experiments is over the ocean due to the additional ocean observations provided by FY-4A,which compensates for the lack of ocean observations.The assimilation of satellite data adjusts the vertical and horizontal wind fields over the ocean by adjusting the atmospheric temperature and humidity,which ultimately results in a narrower and stronger WV transport path to the center of heavy precipitation in Zhengzhou in the lower troposphere.Conversely,the WV convergence and upward motion in the control experiment are more dispersed;therefore,the precipitation centers are also correspondingly more dispersed.展开更多
TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data have been made available to the public users since June 1998. In this paper, some preliminary research is reported for the case study of heavy rainfall over the Yangtze ...TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data have been made available to the public users since June 1998. In this paper, some preliminary research is reported for the case study of heavy rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin using TRMM data at 2140 UTC 20 July 1998. TRMM derived precipitation products are also compared with rain gauge observation, ground radar data and numerical model simulation results. It is shown that TRMM data can be easily used to monitor the heavy rainfall and have many applications. Key words Heavy rainfall - TRMM data - Precipitation structure The research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49705064), the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. G19998040909), the Chinese Meteorological Administration, and the Ministry of Personnel (Outstanding Returned Oversea Scholar Program).展开更多
Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1981–2020 are classified into three types(type-A,type-B and type-C)according to pattern correlation.The characteristics of the ...Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1981–2020 are classified into three types(type-A,type-B and type-C)according to pattern correlation.The characteristics of the synoptic systems for the PHREs and their possible development mechanisms are investigated.The anomalous cyclonic disturbance over the southern part of the YHRV during type-A events is primarily maintained and intensified by the propagation of Rossby wave energy originating from the northeast Atlantic in the mid–upper troposphere and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets from the western Pacific in the mid–lower troposphere.The zonal propagation of Rossby wave packets and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets during type-B events are more coherent than those for type-A events,which induces eastward propagation of stronger anomaly centers of geopotential height from the northeast Atlantic Ocean to the YHRV and a meridional anomaly in geopotential height over the Asian continent.Type-C events have“two ridges and one trough”in the high latitudes of the Eurasian continent,but the anomalous intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and the trough of the YHRV region are weaker than those for type-A and type-B events.The composite synoptic circulation of four PHREs in 2020 is basically consistent with that of the corresponding PHRE type.The location of the South Asian high(SAH)in three of the PHREs in 2020 moves eastward as in the composite of the three types,but the position of the WPSH of the four PHREs is clearly westward and northward.Two water vapor conveyor belts and two cold air conveyor belts are tracked during the four PHREs in 2020,but the water vapor path from the western Pacific is not seen,which may be caused by the westward extension of the WPSH.展开更多
Persistent heavy rainfall events in South China can be divided into pre-and post-monsoon-onset events according to the onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. In this study, daily rainfall data from 174 stations ...Persistent heavy rainfall events in South China can be divided into pre-and post-monsoon-onset events according to the onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. In this study, daily rainfall data from 174 stations in South China and daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to investigate pre-monsoon-onset events. The synoptic characteristics of pre-monsoon-onset heavy rainfall events are examined in detail. It is found that 21 heavy rainfall cases happened in the pre-monsoon period between 1961 and 2005. Among them, more than 60% of the events happened under a saddle pattern circulation. Using a case study, the role of the saddle field is investigated and slantwise vorticity development (SVD) theory is applied to diagnose the mechanisms for heavy rainfall development. It is found that a low-level saddle field and low-level jets result in the accumulation of warm moist air in the lower troposphere over South China and provide the necessary unstable conditions for heavy rainfall development. The existence of a saddle field plays an important role in maintaining these unstable conditions. The slantwise movement of the isentropic surface over South China can increase local vorticity and lead to strong vertical motion, which then triggers heavy rainfall.展开更多
A record-breaking heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan province during 19–21 July 2021 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model,and the large-scale precipitation efficiency(LSPE)...A record-breaking heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan province during 19–21 July 2021 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model,and the large-scale precipitation efficiency(LSPE)and cloud-microphysical precipitation efficiency(CMPE)of the rainfall are analyzed based on the model results.Then,the key physical factors that influenced LSPE and CMPE,and the possible mechanisms for the extreme rainfall over Zhengzhou are explored.Results show that water vapor flux convergence was the key factor that influenced LSPE.Water vapor was transported by the southeasterly winds between Typhoon In-Fa(2021)and the subtropical high,and the southerly flow of Typhoon Cempaka(2021),and converged in Zhengzhou due to the blocking by the Taihang and Funiu Mountains in western Henan province.Strong moisture convergence centers were formed on the windward slope of the mountains,which led to high LSPE in Zhengzhou.From the perspective of CMPE,the net consumption of water vapor by microphysical processes was the key factor that influenced CMPE.Quantitative budget analysis suggests that water vapor was mainly converted to cloud water and ice-phase particles and then transformed to raindrops through melting of graupel and accretion of cloud water by rainwater during the heavy precipitation stage.The dry intrusion in the middle and upper levels over Zhengzhou made the high potential vorticity descend from the upper troposphere and enhanced the convective instability.Moreover,the intrusion of cold and dry air resulted in the supersaturation and condensation of water vapor,which contributed to the heavy rainfall in Zhengzhou.展开更多
To examine the ability of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to detect the origins and paths of moisture supplied to Southeast China, trajectories of air particles released o...To examine the ability of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to detect the origins and paths of moisture supplied to Southeast China, trajectories of air particles released over Southeast China were traced backward during 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013 and three typical regional persistent heavy rainfall events. The HYSPLIT model provides more insightful information than water vapor flux. Analysis of the specific humidity along the trajectories revealed the origins of moisture and their contributions to the moisture supply in Southeast China. In the boreal summer half year, four key moisture transport paths from the eastern Indian Ocean, central Indian Ocean, South China Sea (SCS), and western North Pacific (WNP) contribute 10%, 20%, 31%, and 16% of the moisture to Southeast China, respectively. In the winter half year, the contributions of the paths from the WNP and North China double. Examination of heavy rainfall events showed that under tropical storm conditions, all moisture transport routines are rotated cyclonically before reaching Southeast China. The invasion of cold air can trigger heavy rainfall in both the summer and winter half years but plays different roles: it does not contribute to the moisture supply but plays a key role in converging and uplifting the moisture in the summer half year, while it supplies a great amount of moisture in the winter half year as it absorbs abundant moisture in crossing the WNE展开更多
During the Heavy Rainfall Experiment in South China (HUAMEX) of 1998, a record heavy rainfall event occurred in the delta of the Pearl River during the 24 hours from 1200 UTC 8 June to 1200 UTC 9 June, 1998, and a 2...During the Heavy Rainfall Experiment in South China (HUAMEX) of 1998, a record heavy rainfall event occurred in the delta of the Pearl River during the 24 hours from 1200 UTC 8 June to 1200 UTC 9 June, 1998, and a 24-hour precipitation maximum of 574 mm was reported in Hong Kong. In this paper, some mesoscale characteristics of this heavy rainfall event are studied using data from satellites, Doppler radar, wind profilers, and automatic meteorological stations collected during HUAMEX. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) During this heavy rainfall event, there existed a favorable large-scale environment, that included a front with weak baroclinity in the heavy rain area and with an upward motion branch ahead of the front. (2) Unlike most extratropical or subtropical systems, the closed low in the geopotential height field does not exited. The obvious feature was that a southerly branch trough in the westerlies existed and Hong Kong was located ahead of the trough. (3) The rainfall areas were located in the warm sector ahead of the front, rather than in the frontal zone, which is one of the characteristics of heavy rainfalls during the pre-rainy season of South China. A southerly warm and moist current contributed to the heavy rainfall formation, including the transportation of rich water vapor and the creation of strong horizontal wind convergence. (4) The observations show that the heavy rainfall in Hong Kong was directly caused by a series of meso β systems rather than a mesoscale convective complex (MCC). These meso β systems moved with the steering current in the lower-mid troposphere, their life cycles were 3-6 hours, and their horizontal sizes were 10-100 km. (5) The disturbances in the lower and mid troposphere, especially that in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) were very shallow. However, they are a possible trigger mechanism for the occurrence and development of the mesoscale convective systems and related heavy rainfalls. Finally, a conceptual model of the heavy rainfall in the warm sector ahead of the front in South China is proposed.展开更多
An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the an...An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42275041)the Hainan Province Science and Technology Special Fund(Grant No.SOLZSKY2025006).
摘要Summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin(YRB)is favored by two key factors in the lower troposphere:the tropical anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific and the extratropical northeasterly anomalies to the north of the YRB.This study,however,found that approximately 46%of heavy rainfall events in the YRB occur when only one factor appears and the other is opposite signed.Accordingly,these heavy rainfall events can be categorized into two types:the extratropical northeasterly anomalies but tropical cyclonic anomaly(first unconventional type),and the tropical anticyclonic anomaly but extratropical southwesterly anomalies(second unconventional type).Anomalous water vapor convergence and upward motion exists for both types,but through different mechanisms.For the first type,the moisture convergence and upward motion are induced by a cyclonic anomaly over the YRB,which appears in the mid and lower troposphere and originates from the upstream region.For the second type,a mid-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over Lake Baikal extends southward and results in southwesterly anomalies over the YRB,in conjunction with the tropical anticyclonic anomaly.The southwesterly anomalies transport water vapor to the YRB and lead to upward motion through warm advection.This study emphasizes the role of mid-tropospheric circulations in inducing heavy rainfall in the YRB.
基金Science and Technology Talent Project of Shanghai Meteorological Service(KJRC202408)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41875059,41875071)+1 种基金AI for Science Program,Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Informatization(2025-GZL-RGZN-BTBX-02034)Youth Innovation Team of China Meteorological Administration(CMA2024QN02)。
摘要Downdrafts tend to suppress convection under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH);however,local short-term heavy rainfall(STHR)events still occur frequently in coastal cities,and predicting the convective initiation(CI)of such processes remains challenging.Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and an automatic weather station(AWS)network,the meteorological conditions of STHR and non-rainfall(NR)events were compared and analyzed using hourly synthesis analysis methods.The findings are as follows.(1)Suppression by the WPSH results in stronger vertical upward motion during STHR events,with-0.04≤ω≤-0.03 Pa s-1,than during NR events,with -0.03≤ω≤-0.015 Pa s-1.(2)STHR events,with over 80% AWSs≥38℃,exhibit quicker temperature rises,higher peak temperatures,and more extensive areas of heat coverage compared to NR events,with only 16.5%AWSs≥38℃.(3)STHR events,with a convergence of the Q vector divergence of-0.4×10-11hPa-1s-3,compared to NR events,with a convergence of the Q vector divergence of-0.2×10-11hPa-1s-3,are also accompanied by more intense surface convergence and upward motion,conditions which reveal the significance of local dynamics in triggering such weather events.(4)The weaker suppressive effect of the WPSH,combined with a significant mesoscale thermodynamic force near the ground,creates a multiscale resonance effect,which is a key condition for triggering local convection.(5)The lower temperature–dew point temperature spread(T-Td)at 2 m and relative humidity below 850 hPa for STHR events indicate that moisture conditions are sufficient,but not necessary,for triggering local convection.This study provides new insights into CI mechanisms under the influence of the WPSH for STHR events,thus offering important clues for future improvements in forecasting capabilities.
摘要Based on high-altitude and ground observation data and physical quantity field data,the diagnostic analysis of a heavy rainfall process in Hulunbuir City from July 18 to 20,2025 was conducted from the aspects of circulation patterns,influencing systems,dynamic conditions,moisture conditions and convective conditions,and the causes of the occurrence and development of this process were revealed.The study shows that the superposition of the upper-level trough,the ground cyclone,and the low-level jet stream formed strong water vapor transport,strong warm advection,and strong dynamic uplift in Hulunbuir,thereby leading to this heavy rainfall event.The forecasting ideas for short-term heavy rainfall were pointed out to provide certain scientific references for future forecasting and prediction work.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42475008)Strategy Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB0760400).
摘要From 26 October to 2 November 2024,Spain experienced a record-breaking rainfall event,with the most intense episode appearing in Valencia Province.During the event,Turis station recorded a historic 24-hour precipitation of 710.8 mm,exceeding the national annual average.This resulting flood led to widespread disruption and significant societal impacts.Synoptic analyses reveal that the event was dominated by a deep cut-off low extending through the entire troposphere and persisting for approximately 186 h.Background conditions were characterized by upper-level divergence,mid-tropospheric warm advection,and a strong southeasterly low-level jet,which promoted vertical motion and sustained moisture transport.The steep,funnel-shaped terrain along the eastern Iberian coast further triggered and enhanced the local convection.A 10-day backward Lagrangian moisture tracing using the HYSPLIT model identified the Mediterranean Sea as the primary moisture source(78.1%),followed by northwestern Africa(8.5%)and central-eastern Europehe Black Sea(6.2%).Low-level moisture transport was mainly driven by the cut-off low and a persistent Mediterranean high,while mid-to upper-level trajectories were associated with a preceding low-pressure system over the Mediterranean and the subtropical Atlantic high.These systems acted in sequence to relay moisture toward the Valencia region,and under the influence of the strongly rotating and convergent cut-off low—along with terrain-induced lifting—this moisture was rapidly uplifted,ultimately triggering the extreme rainfall event.
基金Key Project of the NSFC Joint Fund(U20B2061)Innovation Development Special Project(CXFZ2024J001,CXFZ2023J013)+3 种基金Key Open Fund of the Laboratory of Hydrometeorology,China Meteorological Administration(23SWQXZ001)Open Research Fund of Anyang National Climate Observatory(AYNCOF202401)Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(SJCX24_0478)Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation Project(LZJMD25D050002)。
摘要With the intensification of climate change,frequent short-duration heavy rainfall events exert significant impacts on human society and natural environment.Traditional rainfall recognition methods show limitations,including poor timeliness,inadequate handling of imbalanced data,and low accuracy when dealing with these events.This paper proposes a method based on CD-Pix2Pix model for inverting short-duration heavy rainfall events,aiming to improve the accuracy of inversion.The method integrates the attention mechanism network CSM-Net and the Dropblock module with a Bayesian optimized loss function to improve imbalanced data processing and enhance overall performance.This study utilizes multisource heterogeneous data,including radar composite reflectivity,FY-4B satellite data,and ground automatic station rainfall observations data,with China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS)data as the target labels fror the inversion task.Experimental results show that the enhanced method outperforms conventional rainfall inversion methods across multiple evaluation metrics,particularly demonstrating superior performance in Threat Score(TS,0.495),Probability of Detection(POD,0.857),and False Alarm Ratio(FAR,0.143).
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42330610 and 42075010)。
摘要The Sichuan Basin(SCB),China has a high incidence of extremely persistent heavy rainfall(EPHR)events.The EPHR events from 2009 to 2019 in the SCB were mainly concentrated over the northern and northwestern windward slopes and the central basin.They occurred from June to September,but especially in July,and peaked at 0300 LST.ERA5 reanalysis data and objective classification were used to investigate the synoptic patterns and their effects.There were three synoptic patterns during EPHR events,all accompanied by a Southwest Vortex.The location and intensity of the Southwest Vortex,thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau(TP),and low-level winds can greatly affect the intensity and spatial distribution of EPHR.When the Southwest Vortex was located in the western SCB and there were southerly low-level jets(LLJs),convergence and upslope wind would lead to EPHR over the northwestern or northern windward slopes.If there was no LLJ and the whole SCB was under the center of the Southwest Vortex,nocturnal EPHR was controlled by the internal circulation of the Southwest Vortex and the updraft generated by the thermal forcing of the TP,and the rainfall was weaker.The southeastern entrance of the SCB was a key area where the low-level wind dominated the nocturnal peak of EPHR.The nocturnal strengthened southeasterly wind in the key area is attributable to inertial oscillation,and the topographic friction plays an essential role in transporting momentum and moisture into the basin by generating easterly and northeasterly ageostrophic winds.
基金supported by the Budget Execution(Allotment)Document,National Research and Innovation Agency(BRIN)in 2022(Grant No.SP DIPA-124.01.1.690504/2022)。
摘要Nusantara,the new capital city of Indonesia,and its surrounding areas experienced intense heavy rainfall on 15-16 March 2022,leading to devastating and widespread flooding.However,the factors triggering such intense heavy rainfall and the underlying physical mechanisms are still not fully understood.Using high-resolution GSMaP(Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation)data,we show that a mesoscale convective system(MCS)was the primary cause of the heavy rainfall event.The rainfall peak occurred during the MCS's mature stage at 1800 UTC 15 March 2022,and diminished as it entered the dissipation stage.To understand the large-scale environmental factors affecting the MCS event,we analyzed contributions from the MJO,equatorial waves,and low-frequency variability to column water vapor and moisture flux convergence.Results indicate a substantial influence of the MJO and equatorial waves on lower-level(boundary layer)meridional moisture flux convergence during the pre-MCS stage and initiation,with their contributions accounting for up to80%during the growth phase.Moreover,while La Nina and the Asian monsoon had negligible impacts on MCS moisture supply,we find a large contribution from the residual term of the water vapour budget during the maturation and decay phases of the MCS.This suggests that local forcing(such as small-scale convection,local evaporation,land-surface feedback,and topography)also contributed to modulation of the intensity and duration of the MCS.The results of this study can help in our understanding of the potential causes of extreme rainfall in Nusantara and could be leveraged to improve rainstorm forecasting and risk management across the region in the future.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242203,41975138,41905047,42030610)the High-level Science and Technology Journals Projects of Guangdong Province(2021B1212020016)+2 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2019A1515010814,2021A1515011415)Science and Technology Research Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GRMC2020M01)the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(22NLTSQ003)。
摘要Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we investigated the differences in microphysical characteristics of heavy rainfall events during the period of 10-15 May 2022 based on the combined observations from 11 S-band polarimetric radars in south China.The conclusions are as follows:(1)WR has the highest radar echo top height,the strongest radar echo at all altitudes,the highest lightning density,and the most active ice-phase process,which suggests that the convection is the most vigorous in the WR,moderate in the FR,and the weakest in the SR.(2)Three types of rainfall are all marine-type precipitation,the massweighted mean diameter(Dm,mm)and the intercept parameter(Nw,mm-1 m-3)of the raindrops in the WR are the largest.(3)The WR possesses the highest proportion of graupel compared with the FR and SR,and stronger updrafts and more abundant water vapor supply may lead to larger raindrops during the melting and collision-coalescence processes.(4)Over all the heights,liquid and ice water content in the WR are higher than those in the SR and FR,the ratio of ice to liquid water content in the WR is as high as 27%when ZH exceeds 50 dBZ,definitely higher than that in the SR and FR,indicating that the active ice-phase process existing in the WR is conducive to the formation of heavy rainfall.
基金National key research and development program of China(2022YFC3003902)National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242203,42075086,41975138)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515011971,2021A1515011415,2019A1515010814)。
摘要During the April-June raining season,warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR) and frontal heavy rainfall(FR) often occur in the south of China,causing natural disasters.In this study,the microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events from 2016 to 2022 are analyzed by using 2-dimensional video disdrometer(2DVD) data in the south of China.The microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events are quite different.Compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D 100 mm h-1) for WR and FR events are also different.Raindrops from C3 contribute the most to the precipitation of WR events,and raindrops from C2 contribute the most to the precipitation of FR events.For C2 and C3,compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D <1 mm and D~3-4.5 mm.Moreover,the shape and slope(μ-A) relationships and the radar reflectivity and rain rate(Z-R) relationships of WR and FR events are quite different in each rain rate class.The investigation of the difference in microphysical characteristics between WR and FR events provide useful information for radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and numerical prediction.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40575015.
摘要Persistent heavy rainfall events (PHR events) comprise one category of weather- and climate- related extreme events. Based on daily rainfall data measured in China during the period of 1951-2004, several quantitative criteria were developed to define PHR events by means of their precipitation intensity, temporal duration, spatial extent and persistence. Then a semi-objective classification based on these criteria was applied to summer daily rainfall data to identify all PHR events. A total of 197 events were observed during the study period. All events were further classified into 5 categories according to their comprehensive intensity; into 3 types according to their circulation regime; and into 8 groups according to the geographic locations of their rainbands. Based on these different classifications, finally, the behaviors of 130 PHR events identified as the most severe, severe and moderate categories since the year of 1951, including characteristics of the spatial and temporal distributions of their frequencies, intensities, and rainbands, were investigated in order to present a comprehensive description of the PHR events. The results will be helpful to the future study of revealing and understanding the processes that govern the production of the PHR events and to the improvement of the forecasts of the PHR events.
基金supported by the key international collaborative project of Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41520104002)
摘要The initiation mechanism of debris flow is regarded as the key step in understanding the debrisflow processes of occurrence, development and damage. Moreover, migration, accumulation and blocking effects of fine particles in soil will lead to soil failure and then develop into debris flow. Based on this hypothesis and considering the three factors of slope gradient, rainfall duration and rainfall intensity, 16 flume experiments were designed using the method of orthogonal design and completed in a laboratory. Particle composition changes in slope toe, volumetric water content, fine particle movement characteristics and soil failure mechanism were analyzed and understood as follows: the soil has complex, random and unstable structures, which causes remarkable pore characteristics of poor connectivity, non-uniformity and easy variation. The major factors that influence fine particle migration are rainfall intensity and slope. Rainfall intensity dominates particle movement, whereby high intensity rainfall induces a large number of mass movement and sharp fluctuation, causing more fine particles to accumulate at the steep slope toe. The slope toe plays an important role in water collection and fine particleaccumulation. Both fine particle migration and coarse particle movement appears similar fluctuation. Fine particle migration is interrupted in unconnected pores, causing pore blockage and fine particle accumulation, which then leads to the formation of a weak layer and further soil failure or collapses. Fine particle movement also causes debris flow formation in two ways: movement on the soil surface and migration inside the soil. The results verify the hypothesis that the function of fine particle migration in soil failure process is conducive for further understanding the formation mechanism of soil failure and debris flow initiation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41775050,91937301,41775002,42005008)the Science Development Fund of Chinese of Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2020KJ022).
摘要A sustained heavy rainfall event occurred over the Sichuan basin in southwest China during 10–18 August 2020,showing pronounced diurnal rainfall variations with nighttime peak and afternoon minimum values,except on the first day.Results show that the westward extension of the anomalously strong western Pacific subtropical high was conducive to the maintenance of a southerly low-level jet(LLJ)in and to the southeast of the basin,which favored continuous water vapor transport and abnormally high precipitable water in the basin.The diurnal cycle of rainfall over the basin was closely related to the periodic oscillation of the LLJ in both wind speed and direction that was caused by the combination of inertial oscillation and terrain thermal forcing.The nocturnally enhanced rainfall was produced by moist convection mostly initiated during the evening hours over the southwest part of the basin where high convective available potential energy with moister near-surface moist air was present.The convective initiation took place as cold air from either previous precipitating clouds from the western Sichuan Plateau or a larger-scale northerly flow met a warm and humid current from the south.It was the slantwise lifting of the warm,moist airflow above the cold air,often facilitated by southwest vortices and quasi-geostrophic ascent,that released the convective instability and produced heavy rainfall.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2017YFC1501803 and 2017YFC1502102)。
摘要Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager(AGRI)clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed.The forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor(WV)channels with conventional observations for the“21·7”Henan extremely heavy rainfall is analyzed and compared with a baseline test that assimilates only conventional observations in this study.The results show that the 24-h cumulative precipitation forecast by the assimilation experiment with the addition of the AGRI exceeds 500 mm,compared to a maximum value of 532.6 mm measured by the national meteorological stations,and that the location of the maximum precipitation is consistent with the observations.The results for the short periods of intense precipitation processes are that the simulation of the location and intensity of the 3-h cumulative precipitation is also relatively accurate.The analysis increment shows that the main difference between the two sets of assimilation experiments is over the ocean due to the additional ocean observations provided by FY-4A,which compensates for the lack of ocean observations.The assimilation of satellite data adjusts the vertical and horizontal wind fields over the ocean by adjusting the atmospheric temperature and humidity,which ultimately results in a narrower and stronger WV transport path to the center of heavy precipitation in Zhengzhou in the lower troposphere.Conversely,the WV convergence and upward motion in the control experiment are more dispersed;therefore,the precipitation centers are also correspondingly more dispersed.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.49705064), the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant N
摘要TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data have been made available to the public users since June 1998. In this paper, some preliminary research is reported for the case study of heavy rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin using TRMM data at 2140 UTC 20 July 1998. TRMM derived precipitation products are also compared with rain gauge observation, ground radar data and numerical model simulation results. It is shown that TRMM data can be easily used to monitor the heavy rainfall and have many applications. Key words Heavy rainfall - TRMM data - Precipitation structure The research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49705064), the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. G19998040909), the Chinese Meteorological Administration, and the Ministry of Personnel (Outstanding Returned Oversea Scholar Program).
基金This research was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA23090101)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41975056).
摘要Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1981–2020 are classified into three types(type-A,type-B and type-C)according to pattern correlation.The characteristics of the synoptic systems for the PHREs and their possible development mechanisms are investigated.The anomalous cyclonic disturbance over the southern part of the YHRV during type-A events is primarily maintained and intensified by the propagation of Rossby wave energy originating from the northeast Atlantic in the mid–upper troposphere and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets from the western Pacific in the mid–lower troposphere.The zonal propagation of Rossby wave packets and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets during type-B events are more coherent than those for type-A events,which induces eastward propagation of stronger anomaly centers of geopotential height from the northeast Atlantic Ocean to the YHRV and a meridional anomaly in geopotential height over the Asian continent.Type-C events have“two ridges and one trough”in the high latitudes of the Eurasian continent,but the anomalous intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and the trough of the YHRV region are weaker than those for type-A and type-B events.The composite synoptic circulation of four PHREs in 2020 is basically consistent with that of the corresponding PHRE type.The location of the South Asian high(SAH)in three of the PHREs in 2020 moves eastward as in the composite of the three types,but the position of the WPSH of the four PHREs is clearly westward and northward.Two water vapor conveyor belts and two cold air conveyor belts are tracked during the four PHREs in 2020,but the water vapor path from the western Pacific is not seen,which may be caused by the westward extension of the WPSH.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40730951the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) under Grant No. 2009CB421404
摘要Persistent heavy rainfall events in South China can be divided into pre-and post-monsoon-onset events according to the onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. In this study, daily rainfall data from 174 stations in South China and daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to investigate pre-monsoon-onset events. The synoptic characteristics of pre-monsoon-onset heavy rainfall events are examined in detail. It is found that 21 heavy rainfall cases happened in the pre-monsoon period between 1961 and 2005. Among them, more than 60% of the events happened under a saddle pattern circulation. Using a case study, the role of the saddle field is investigated and slantwise vorticity development (SVD) theory is applied to diagnose the mechanisms for heavy rainfall development. It is found that a low-level saddle field and low-level jets result in the accumulation of warm moist air in the lower troposphere over South China and provide the necessary unstable conditions for heavy rainfall development. The existence of a saddle field plays an important role in maintaining these unstable conditions. The slantwise movement of the isentropic surface over South China can increase local vorticity and lead to strong vertical motion, which then triggers heavy rainfall.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2018YFC1506801 and 2018YFF0300102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Grant No.42105013).
摘要A record-breaking heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan province during 19–21 July 2021 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model,and the large-scale precipitation efficiency(LSPE)and cloud-microphysical precipitation efficiency(CMPE)of the rainfall are analyzed based on the model results.Then,the key physical factors that influenced LSPE and CMPE,and the possible mechanisms for the extreme rainfall over Zhengzhou are explored.Results show that water vapor flux convergence was the key factor that influenced LSPE.Water vapor was transported by the southeasterly winds between Typhoon In-Fa(2021)and the subtropical high,and the southerly flow of Typhoon Cempaka(2021),and converged in Zhengzhou due to the blocking by the Taihang and Funiu Mountains in western Henan province.Strong moisture convergence centers were formed on the windward slope of the mountains,which led to high LSPE in Zhengzhou.From the perspective of CMPE,the net consumption of water vapor by microphysical processes was the key factor that influenced CMPE.Quantitative budget analysis suggests that water vapor was mainly converted to cloud water and ice-phase particles and then transformed to raindrops through melting of graupel and accretion of cloud water by rainwater during the heavy precipitation stage.The dry intrusion in the middle and upper levels over Zhengzhou made the high potential vorticity descend from the upper troposphere and enhanced the convective instability.Moreover,the intrusion of cold and dry air resulted in the supersaturation and condensation of water vapor,which contributed to the heavy rainfall in Zhengzhou.
基金financially supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(Project Nos.41175079,41405045 and 41375096)Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,China(Project No.CUHK441313)
摘要To examine the ability of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to detect the origins and paths of moisture supplied to Southeast China, trajectories of air particles released over Southeast China were traced backward during 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013 and three typical regional persistent heavy rainfall events. The HYSPLIT model provides more insightful information than water vapor flux. Analysis of the specific humidity along the trajectories revealed the origins of moisture and their contributions to the moisture supply in Southeast China. In the boreal summer half year, four key moisture transport paths from the eastern Indian Ocean, central Indian Ocean, South China Sea (SCS), and western North Pacific (WNP) contribute 10%, 20%, 31%, and 16% of the moisture to Southeast China, respectively. In the winter half year, the contributions of the paths from the WNP and North China double. Examination of heavy rainfall events showed that under tropical storm conditions, all moisture transport routines are rotated cyclonically before reaching Southeast China. The invasion of cold air can trigger heavy rainfall in both the summer and winter half years but plays different roles: it does not contribute to the moisture supply but plays a key role in converging and uplifting the moisture in the summer half year, while it supplies a great amount of moisture in the winter half year as it absorbs abundant moisture in crossing the WNE
基金National Key Basic Research and Development Project of China (Project No. 2004CB418301) the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40405008.
摘要During the Heavy Rainfall Experiment in South China (HUAMEX) of 1998, a record heavy rainfall event occurred in the delta of the Pearl River during the 24 hours from 1200 UTC 8 June to 1200 UTC 9 June, 1998, and a 24-hour precipitation maximum of 574 mm was reported in Hong Kong. In this paper, some mesoscale characteristics of this heavy rainfall event are studied using data from satellites, Doppler radar, wind profilers, and automatic meteorological stations collected during HUAMEX. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) During this heavy rainfall event, there existed a favorable large-scale environment, that included a front with weak baroclinity in the heavy rain area and with an upward motion branch ahead of the front. (2) Unlike most extratropical or subtropical systems, the closed low in the geopotential height field does not exited. The obvious feature was that a southerly branch trough in the westerlies existed and Hong Kong was located ahead of the trough. (3) The rainfall areas were located in the warm sector ahead of the front, rather than in the frontal zone, which is one of the characteristics of heavy rainfalls during the pre-rainy season of South China. A southerly warm and moist current contributed to the heavy rainfall formation, including the transportation of rich water vapor and the creation of strong horizontal wind convergence. (4) The observations show that the heavy rainfall in Hong Kong was directly caused by a series of meso β systems rather than a mesoscale convective complex (MCC). These meso β systems moved with the steering current in the lower-mid troposphere, their life cycles were 3-6 hours, and their horizontal sizes were 10-100 km. (5) The disturbances in the lower and mid troposphere, especially that in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) were very shallow. However, they are a possible trigger mechanism for the occurrence and development of the mesoscale convective systems and related heavy rainfalls. Finally, a conceptual model of the heavy rainfall in the warm sector ahead of the front in South China is proposed.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41405104)Specialized Project for Public Welfare Industries(Meteorological Sector)(GYHY201306004)+2 种基金Guangdong Science and Technology Planning Project(2012A061400012)Project of Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Bureau for Science and Technology(2013A04)Science and Technology Plan for the 12th Five-Year of Social and Economic Development(2012BAC22B00)
摘要An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.