Effective corporate governance and sound macroprudential policies are crucial to the stability and sustainable development of the banking sector in China.This paper uses panel data sets from 31 listed Chinese commerci...Effective corporate governance and sound macroprudential policies are crucial to the stability and sustainable development of the banking sector in China.This paper uses panel data sets from 31 listed Chinese commercial banks between 2007 and 2023 to examine how corporate governance and macroprudential regulation influence bank risk-taking.To achieve this,we constructed a set of micro-level corporate governance indicators.The findings show that corporate governance significantly reduces bank risk-taking,while macroprudential regulation positively moderates this relationship.Furthermore,business diversification and loan concentration are the key mechanisms through which corporate governance mitigates risk-taking.We confirmed the soundness of these findings by using robust econometric techniques,including difference-in-differences,system GMM,and alternative independent variables.This study provides valuable insights for optimizing bank capital structures,enhancing corporate governance,improving personnel management,and clarifying the roles of regulators in refining the macroprudential regulatory framework.展开更多
The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk,industrial production,and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018.We adopt the aggregate proxie...The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk,industrial production,and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018.We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables,capturing their global effects,and use a novel econometric technique,namely,smooth local projections.The study finds that global macroprudential policy leads the monetary policy,exhibiting a countercyclical pattern concerning industrial production.The latter has an inverse bidirectional linkage with systemic risk.Thus,an ex-ante tight macroprudential policy can indirectly mitigate global systemic risk through its pro-growth effect on industrial production,although no convincing evidence exists for the direct impact of a macroprudential intervention on systemic risk.The study results endure several extensions and a robustness check,which builds on alternative measures of global systemic stress and real economic activity,thereby legitimizing the increased importance attached to the macroprudential policy since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.展开更多
We construct a connected network between China and the economies that are financially linked to it,based on the network topology of variance decompositions,and measure the cross-border contagion of financial risks amo...We construct a connected network between China and the economies that are financially linked to it,based on the network topology of variance decompositions,and measure the cross-border contagion of financial risks among these economies.We then examine whether the concerted use of macroprudential policies mitigates the cross-border contagion of financial risks.The empirical results show that the tightening of macroprudential policies,especially counter-cyclical capital buffers and limits on credit growth,in economies with net spillover risk(e.g.the US and China).can reduce the cross-border spillover of domestic financial risks to other economies.The concerted use of macroprudential policies can contribute to global financial stability.However,the tightening of"capital"macroprudential policy tools will increase domestic cross-border absorption of financial risks.Hence,macroprudential regulation of cross-border capital flows must be strengthened.展开更多
In recent years,the rapid development of fi ntech has brought far-reaching changes to the fi nancial sector.At the same time,fi ntech may cause potential systemic risk in the fi nancial sector,which has aroused specia...In recent years,the rapid development of fi ntech has brought far-reaching changes to the fi nancial sector.At the same time,fi ntech may cause potential systemic risk in the fi nancial sector,which has aroused special concerns from fi nancial regulatory authorities.Based on the micro data of China’s listed banks from 2013 to 2020,this paper analyzes the impact of fi ntech development on systemic risk in China’s banking industry and its mechanism.It reveals that for a micro bank,fintech progress increases its risk-taking and enhances inter-bank linkages,which results in signifi cantly amplifi ed systemic risk,and the impact is time-lagged and persistent.In addition,the heterogeneity analysis shows that the impacts of fi ntech on state-owned banks and other banks are heterogeneous and the margining risk of state-owned banks is lower when the fi ntech improves.It is also found that enhancing macroprudential supervision can reduce the systemic risk spillover of fintech.Robustness analyses including GMM regression and the method of instrumental variables prove that the conclusion is robust.This paper is of theoretical and policy signifi cance for the prevention of systemic risk in the banking industry as China develops fi ntech.展开更多
International capital flows play a crucial role in the process of globalization,presenting both opportunities and challenges to the financial stability of emerging economies.This article sorts out the positive effects...International capital flows play a crucial role in the process of globalization,presenting both opportunities and challenges to the financial stability of emerging economies.This article sorts out the positive effects and potential risks of international capital flows on the financial stability of emerging economies.By combining case studies in recent years,it analyzes the complex relationship between cross-border capital flows and financial stability,and proposes policy paths for emerging economies to cope with the shock of capital flows,providing references for enhancing financial resilience and achieving sustainable development.展开更多
According to the consensus view, central banks reached a high level of independence by the end of last century. This paper argues that as a result short-term political considerations applied during the appointment pro...According to the consensus view, central banks reached a high level of independence by the end of last century. This paper argues that as a result short-term political considerations applied during the appointment process of central bank decision-makers, their actual independence was at a lower level already that time. The global f'mancial crisis created new tasks for central banks and forced a review of the meaning of independence. The paper argues that central banks should be responsible for safeguarding fmancial stability and their macro-prudential activity can only be executed in cooperation with governments. However, interest rate policy decisions must remain free of political influence. The novelty of this paper lies in showing the conflictual relationship of the various roles of central banks. The paper concludes that the duality of independence and cooperation represents a major uncertainty in the operation of central banks. As a result of the greater degree of politicisation of the activities of central banks, their de facto independence in interest rate policy making may further shrink in the future. The paper also shows that India represents a unique case of central bank independence. In most countries, de jure independence is higher than de facto. India is one of the very rare countries where the reverse is the case.展开更多
Following the 2008 financial crisis,the relationship between credit structure and systemic risk has garnered increasing attention in financial stability research.Systemic risk arises not only from the fragility of ind...Following the 2008 financial crisis,the relationship between credit structure and systemic risk has garnered increasing attention in financial stability research.Systemic risk arises not only from the fragility of individual banks but also from structural similarities in credit allocation across institutions.This study examines how the composition of bank credit—specifically,the balance between household and corporate lending—affects systemic risk in the UK banking sector.Using data from HSBC,Barclays,and Lloyds covering 2016–2024,Marginal Expected Shortfall(MES)is employed to measure banks’exposure to market tail risk.The analysis shows that a growing share of household credit,particularly mortgage lending,significantly amplifies systemic risk,whereas corporate credit provides diversification benefits and reduces vulnerability.Furthermore,differences in business models account for the heterogeneity of systemic exposure:retail-focused banks are more sensitive to domestic shocks,while globally diversified banks demonstrate greater resilience.These findings offer micro-level evidence supporting the integration of credit composition into macroprudential policy design to enhance financial system stability.展开更多
基金supported by the General Project of the National Social Science Fund,“Research on the Implementation Mechanism and Optimization Path of Multi-level Agricultural Insurance from the Perspective of Heterogeneity”(Project No.19BJY161)the Outstanding Youth Scientific Research Project of the Hunan Provincial Department of Education,“Measurement,Transmission,and Prevention of Systemic Financial Risks in the Context of Low-carbon Transition”(Project No.22B0649)the General Project of the Hunan Provincial Social Science Achievement Evaluation Committee,“Research on the Measurement and Early Warning of Systemic Financial Risks under the Impact of Low-carbon Transition”(Project No.XSP2023JJZ010).
摘要Effective corporate governance and sound macroprudential policies are crucial to the stability and sustainable development of the banking sector in China.This paper uses panel data sets from 31 listed Chinese commercial banks between 2007 and 2023 to examine how corporate governance and macroprudential regulation influence bank risk-taking.To achieve this,we constructed a set of micro-level corporate governance indicators.The findings show that corporate governance significantly reduces bank risk-taking,while macroprudential regulation positively moderates this relationship.Furthermore,business diversification and loan concentration are the key mechanisms through which corporate governance mitigates risk-taking.We confirmed the soundness of these findings by using robust econometric techniques,including difference-in-differences,system GMM,and alternative independent variables.This study provides valuable insights for optimizing bank capital structures,enhancing corporate governance,improving personnel management,and clarifying the roles of regulators in refining the macroprudential regulatory framework.
摘要The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk,industrial production,and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018.We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables,capturing their global effects,and use a novel econometric technique,namely,smooth local projections.The study finds that global macroprudential policy leads the monetary policy,exhibiting a countercyclical pattern concerning industrial production.The latter has an inverse bidirectional linkage with systemic risk.Thus,an ex-ante tight macroprudential policy can indirectly mitigate global systemic risk through its pro-growth effect on industrial production,although no convincing evidence exists for the direct impact of a macroprudential intervention on systemic risk.The study results endure several extensions and a robustness check,which builds on alternative measures of global systemic stress and real economic activity,thereby legitimizing the increased importance attached to the macroprudential policy since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.
基金the Humanities and Social Science Fund Project of Ministry of Education of China(No.20YJA790003)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(No.ZR2020MG039)the Future Plan for Young Scholars of Shandong University(No.2016WLJH05).
摘要We construct a connected network between China and the economies that are financially linked to it,based on the network topology of variance decompositions,and measure the cross-border contagion of financial risks among these economies.We then examine whether the concerted use of macroprudential policies mitigates the cross-border contagion of financial risks.The empirical results show that the tightening of macroprudential policies,especially counter-cyclical capital buffers and limits on credit growth,in economies with net spillover risk(e.g.the US and China).can reduce the cross-border spillover of domestic financial risks to other economies.The concerted use of macroprudential policies can contribute to global financial stability.However,the tightening of"capital"macroprudential policy tools will increase domestic cross-border absorption of financial risks.Hence,macroprudential regulation of cross-border capital flows must be strengthened.
基金supported by the National Social Science Fund of China(18CJY061)。
摘要In recent years,the rapid development of fi ntech has brought far-reaching changes to the fi nancial sector.At the same time,fi ntech may cause potential systemic risk in the fi nancial sector,which has aroused special concerns from fi nancial regulatory authorities.Based on the micro data of China’s listed banks from 2013 to 2020,this paper analyzes the impact of fi ntech development on systemic risk in China’s banking industry and its mechanism.It reveals that for a micro bank,fintech progress increases its risk-taking and enhances inter-bank linkages,which results in signifi cantly amplifi ed systemic risk,and the impact is time-lagged and persistent.In addition,the heterogeneity analysis shows that the impacts of fi ntech on state-owned banks and other banks are heterogeneous and the margining risk of state-owned banks is lower when the fi ntech improves.It is also found that enhancing macroprudential supervision can reduce the systemic risk spillover of fintech.Robustness analyses including GMM regression and the method of instrumental variables prove that the conclusion is robust.This paper is of theoretical and policy signifi cance for the prevention of systemic risk in the banking industry as China develops fi ntech.
摘要International capital flows play a crucial role in the process of globalization,presenting both opportunities and challenges to the financial stability of emerging economies.This article sorts out the positive effects and potential risks of international capital flows on the financial stability of emerging economies.By combining case studies in recent years,it analyzes the complex relationship between cross-border capital flows and financial stability,and proposes policy paths for emerging economies to cope with the shock of capital flows,providing references for enhancing financial resilience and achieving sustainable development.
摘要According to the consensus view, central banks reached a high level of independence by the end of last century. This paper argues that as a result short-term political considerations applied during the appointment process of central bank decision-makers, their actual independence was at a lower level already that time. The global f'mancial crisis created new tasks for central banks and forced a review of the meaning of independence. The paper argues that central banks should be responsible for safeguarding fmancial stability and their macro-prudential activity can only be executed in cooperation with governments. However, interest rate policy decisions must remain free of political influence. The novelty of this paper lies in showing the conflictual relationship of the various roles of central banks. The paper concludes that the duality of independence and cooperation represents a major uncertainty in the operation of central banks. As a result of the greater degree of politicisation of the activities of central banks, their de facto independence in interest rate policy making may further shrink in the future. The paper also shows that India represents a unique case of central bank independence. In most countries, de jure independence is higher than de facto. India is one of the very rare countries where the reverse is the case.
摘要Following the 2008 financial crisis,the relationship between credit structure and systemic risk has garnered increasing attention in financial stability research.Systemic risk arises not only from the fragility of individual banks but also from structural similarities in credit allocation across institutions.This study examines how the composition of bank credit—specifically,the balance between household and corporate lending—affects systemic risk in the UK banking sector.Using data from HSBC,Barclays,and Lloyds covering 2016–2024,Marginal Expected Shortfall(MES)is employed to measure banks’exposure to market tail risk.The analysis shows that a growing share of household credit,particularly mortgage lending,significantly amplifies systemic risk,whereas corporate credit provides diversification benefits and reduces vulnerability.Furthermore,differences in business models account for the heterogeneity of systemic exposure:retail-focused banks are more sensitive to domestic shocks,while globally diversified banks demonstrate greater resilience.These findings offer micro-level evidence supporting the integration of credit composition into macroprudential policy design to enhance financial system stability.