The decarbonization of China’s steel sector illustrates a central paradox of industrial transformation: Technologies that can deliver deep emissions reductions remain constrained by resource availability, deployment ...The decarbonization of China’s steel sector illustrates a central paradox of industrial transformation: Technologies that can deliver deep emissions reductions remain constrained by resource availability, deployment feasibility, and regional disparities. Drawing on the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) 2010-2023, this perspective situates the challenge against an empirical baseline where national CO2 totals rose from 8.2 Gt (2010) to 11.2 Gt (2023), with industry and power emissions are tightly coupled, and a handful of regions—Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Guangdong—exerting disproportionate influence. Within this context, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) and hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (H2-DRI) emerge as the two most prominent pathways, yet both present significant limitations often obscured by macro-level comparisons. CCUS offers the largest near-term abatement through retrofits to existing blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace assets, with potential contributions exceeding 40% of industry reductions by 2060. However, full-chain accounting reveals high energy penalties and concentrated water burdens, raising concerns over long-term sustainability. H2-DRI, by contrast, achieves near-zero process emissions under moderate renewable hydrogen supply but faces diminishing returns at aggressive deployment levels, where reliance on grid electricity and fossil-derived hydrogen erodes life-cycle benefits—indeed, emission intensities increase more than six-fold when renewable supply saturates. Economic comparisons are equally boundary-sensitive: CCUS costs hinge on capture and storage integration, while H2-DRI depends on electricity pricing, electrolyzer utilization, and hydrogen transport infrastructure—factors often excluded in optimistic projections. A viable transition therefore requires more than technological substitution. Demand reduction, material efficiency, and scrap recycling must complement region-differentiated strategies, while disruptive innovations in hydrogen transport, electrolytic ironmaking, and capture efficiency will be essential. The steel industry’s trajectory thus becomes a decisive test case for whether large-scale industrial decarbonization can succeed under the real-world constraints of resource scarcity, economic feasibility, and governance capacity.展开更多
Air pollution control policies in China have been experiencing profound changes,highlighting a strategic transformation from total pollutant emission control to air quality improvement,along with the shifting targets ...Air pollution control policies in China have been experiencing profound changes,highlighting a strategic transformation from total pollutant emission control to air quality improvement,along with the shifting targets starting from acid rain and NOxemissions to PM2.5pollution,and then the emerging O3challenges.The marvelous achievements have been made with the dramatic decrease of SO2emission and fundamental improvement of PM2.5concentration.Despite these achievements,China has proposed Beautiful China target through 2035 and the goal of 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutrality,which impose stricter requirements on air quality and synergistic mitigation with Greenhouse Gas(GHG)emissions.Against this background,an integrated multi-objective and multi-benefit roadmap is required to provide decision support for China’s long-term air quality improvement strategy.This paper systematically reviews the technical system for developing the air quality improvement roadmap,which was integrated from the research output of China’s National Key R&D Program for Research on Atmospheric Pollution Factors and Control Technologies(hereafter Special NKP),covering mid-and long-term air quality target setting techniques,quantitative analysis techniques for emission reduction targets corresponding to air quality targets,and pathway optimization techniques for realizing reduction targets.The experience and lessons derived from the reviews have implications for the reformation of China’s air quality improvement roadmap in facing challenges of synergistic mitigation of PM2.5and O3,and the coupling with climate change mitigation.展开更多
基金the Graduate Research Excellence Scholarship(GRES)from Monash University Malaysia。
摘要The decarbonization of China’s steel sector illustrates a central paradox of industrial transformation: Technologies that can deliver deep emissions reductions remain constrained by resource availability, deployment feasibility, and regional disparities. Drawing on the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) 2010-2023, this perspective situates the challenge against an empirical baseline where national CO2 totals rose from 8.2 Gt (2010) to 11.2 Gt (2023), with industry and power emissions are tightly coupled, and a handful of regions—Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Guangdong—exerting disproportionate influence. Within this context, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) and hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (H2-DRI) emerge as the two most prominent pathways, yet both present significant limitations often obscured by macro-level comparisons. CCUS offers the largest near-term abatement through retrofits to existing blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace assets, with potential contributions exceeding 40% of industry reductions by 2060. However, full-chain accounting reveals high energy penalties and concentrated water burdens, raising concerns over long-term sustainability. H2-DRI, by contrast, achieves near-zero process emissions under moderate renewable hydrogen supply but faces diminishing returns at aggressive deployment levels, where reliance on grid electricity and fossil-derived hydrogen erodes life-cycle benefits—indeed, emission intensities increase more than six-fold when renewable supply saturates. Economic comparisons are equally boundary-sensitive: CCUS costs hinge on capture and storage integration, while H2-DRI depends on electricity pricing, electrolyzer utilization, and hydrogen transport infrastructure—factors often excluded in optimistic projections. A viable transition therefore requires more than technological substitution. Demand reduction, material efficiency, and scrap recycling must complement region-differentiated strategies, while disruptive innovations in hydrogen transport, electrolytic ironmaking, and capture efficiency will be essential. The steel industry’s trajectory thus becomes a decisive test case for whether large-scale industrial decarbonization can succeed under the real-world constraints of resource scarcity, economic feasibility, and governance capacity.
基金supported by the China’s National Key R&D Program(Nos.2019YFC0214804 and 2019YFC0214205)。
摘要Air pollution control policies in China have been experiencing profound changes,highlighting a strategic transformation from total pollutant emission control to air quality improvement,along with the shifting targets starting from acid rain and NOxemissions to PM2.5pollution,and then the emerging O3challenges.The marvelous achievements have been made with the dramatic decrease of SO2emission and fundamental improvement of PM2.5concentration.Despite these achievements,China has proposed Beautiful China target through 2035 and the goal of 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutrality,which impose stricter requirements on air quality and synergistic mitigation with Greenhouse Gas(GHG)emissions.Against this background,an integrated multi-objective and multi-benefit roadmap is required to provide decision support for China’s long-term air quality improvement strategy.This paper systematically reviews the technical system for developing the air quality improvement roadmap,which was integrated from the research output of China’s National Key R&D Program for Research on Atmospheric Pollution Factors and Control Technologies(hereafter Special NKP),covering mid-and long-term air quality target setting techniques,quantitative analysis techniques for emission reduction targets corresponding to air quality targets,and pathway optimization techniques for realizing reduction targets.The experience and lessons derived from the reviews have implications for the reformation of China’s air quality improvement roadmap in facing challenges of synergistic mitigation of PM2.5and O3,and the coupling with climate change mitigation.