The US dollar-dominated international monetary system has persisted for more than 80 years.The formation of the dollar's dominant position can be traced to historical reasons,and its dominant position is supported...The US dollar-dominated international monetary system has persisted for more than 80 years.The formation of the dollar's dominant position can be traced to historical reasons,and its dominant position is supported by strong network externalities.However,a series of recent changes are deepening the inherent contradictions of the dollar system and weakening the foundation of the dollar's credibility.At the same time,with rising geopolitical risks,the reshaping of the global trading system,and the rapid development of digital currencies,the international monetary system is evolving from being dominated by a single currency toward greater diversification.展开更多
In response to the economic impact brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic,the two major countries,China and the United States,have respectively adopted relatively loose monetary policies.This paper mainly adopts the d...In response to the economic impact brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic,the two major countries,China and the United States,have respectively adopted relatively loose monetary policies.This paper mainly adopts the differindifferences model to evaluate the impact of loose monetary policies on the changes in the investment levels of enterprises in the two countries under the background of economic shocks.By comparing the impact of the loose monetary policies of China and the United States on the investment level of enterprises,the research shows that due to the differences in national conditions and policies between China and the United States,the loose monetary policy of the United States mainly affects the capital expenditure of large enterprises.China’s loose monetary policy has also significantly affected corporate investment,but its effects vary in terms of different enterprise scales,geographical locations and equity natures.Further analysis reveals that China’s loose monetary policy has been more effective in promoting investment by small and medium-sized enterprises,enterprises in the eastern region and state-owned enterprises.China’s loose monetary policy still needs to be further improved in the future to ensure the stable development of the national economy.展开更多
We often hear statements like“the market raises expectations for central bank interest rate cuts,resulting in higher commodity prices”.Given the current situation,the People’s Bank of China might adopt a more accom...We often hear statements like“the market raises expectations for central bank interest rate cuts,resulting in higher commodity prices”.Given the current situation,the People’s Bank of China might adopt a more accommodative monetary policy to mitigate the impact of the China-U.S.trade friction.Will this further easing of the monetary environment lead to an increase in natural gas prices?展开更多
We employ the Multi-Scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity Confidence Indicator(MS-LPPLS-CI)approach to identify positive and negative bubbles in the short-,medium,and long-term for the Indian stock market,using wee...We employ the Multi-Scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity Confidence Indicator(MS-LPPLS-CI)approach to identify positive and negative bubbles in the short-,medium,and long-term for the Indian stock market,using weekly data from November 2003 to December 2020.We use a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach to analyze the predictive impact of monetary policy shocks on bubble indicators.We find,in general,strong evidence of predictability across the entire conditional distribution for the two monetary policy shock factors,with stronger impacts for negative bubbles.Our findings have critical implications for the Reserve Bank of India,academics,and investors.展开更多
As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incor...As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incorporates fiscal and monetary policies,this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to fiscal shocks.Our study finds that during the occurrence of a fiscal shock,the growth rate of broad money supply M2 substantially increased,indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to fiscal policy expansion.Based on this empirical finding,this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the fiscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination.Our analysis shows that monetary policy coordination will significantly boost the economic stimulus effect of fiscal policy,generating a fiscal crowding-in effect.From the perspective of China’s institutional strength,this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the fiscal crowdingin effect uncovered in the research literature,and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective.This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.展开更多
The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk,industrial production,and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018.We adopt the aggregate proxie...The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk,industrial production,and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018.We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables,capturing their global effects,and use a novel econometric technique,namely,smooth local projections.The study finds that global macroprudential policy leads the monetary policy,exhibiting a countercyclical pattern concerning industrial production.The latter has an inverse bidirectional linkage with systemic risk.Thus,an ex-ante tight macroprudential policy can indirectly mitigate global systemic risk through its pro-growth effect on industrial production,although no convincing evidence exists for the direct impact of a macroprudential intervention on systemic risk.The study results endure several extensions and a robustness check,which builds on alternative measures of global systemic stress and real economic activity,thereby legitimizing the increased importance attached to the macroprudential policy since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.展开更多
Using system clustering method to group China's provinces into 3 new groups according to their housing prices, then establishing a state-space model and applying the Kalman filter calculation, we made a comparativ...Using system clustering method to group China's provinces into 3 new groups according to their housing prices, then establishing a state-space model and applying the Kalman filter calculation, we made a comparative analysis of the influences of different types of monetary policy instruments towards different regional housing prices. The empirical results show that both the quantitative instruments represented by M2 and the pricing instruments represented by real interest rate have increasing influences on different regional housing prices,but the former influence is much stronger than the latter. The influential differences of quantitative instruments to regional housing prices are much greater. It means the higher the regional housing price is, the greater the influence is. Therefore, the central bank shall optimize the combination of monetary policy instruments according to the above characteristics of different types of monetary policy instruments in order to acquire the regulatory target of real estate market.展开更多
Empirical research has shown that there were international spillover effects from the U.S. monetary policy to output level, net exports and price levels of each country, and the impact on prices in each country was of...Empirical research has shown that there were international spillover effects from the U.S. monetary policy to output level, net exports and price levels of each country, and the impact on prices in each country was of synchronous effect. The structural impulse response analysis showed that U.S. monetary policy could improve U.S. income and payment without damaging U.S. economic growth, but the shocks negatively affected the economic growth in the rest of the world. Hence, it's important to pay close attention to the moral risks of U.S. monetary policy to evade the global shocks caused by the "benefit-itself-at-the-expense-of-others" polices of the American government. Besides these findings, U.S. monetary policy shocks strongly affect China's trade surplus fluctuations. Based on this, we propose that the approaches of balancing China's current account could be explored efficiently from the perspective of monetary policy.展开更多
Financial innovations not only lower the sensitivity of investment to interest rate, but also increase the sensitivity of financial assets price to interest rate, which lowers transaction cost and promotes transaction...Financial innovations not only lower the sensitivity of investment to interest rate, but also increase the sensitivity of financial assets price to interest rate, which lowers transaction cost and promotes transaction efficiency for economic system. As a result, the IS curve slopes more steeply downward and the LM curve slopes more gently upward than they do without financial innovations. So transmission mechanism of monetary policies and their effects are weakened in interest rate channel as well as in credit channel, but the latter have comparative advantage. Therefore, we must devote major efforts to developing and reforming banks and security market under the financial innovations circumstances. At the same time, financial innovations may not be promoted hastily.展开更多
On account of the lack of monetary unit sampling( MUS), an extended audit game model based on uncertainty information,which centers on audit risk and combines audit game with statistical sampling,is established to imp...On account of the lack of monetary unit sampling( MUS), an extended audit game model based on uncertainty information,which centers on audit risk and combines audit game with statistical sampling,is established to improve the effectiveness of audit risks analysis and sampling errors control. In this paper,an example concerning practical problems is given to demonstrate the process of extended audit game and confirm the truth of the effectiveness of the method. Not only does this method enhance the role of audit technology and the extension of audit procedures in deterring material irregularities,but also helps the auditors measure and control audit risk and sample sizes under uncertainty,conducive to improving the effect of cost control,risk evaluation,and decisionmaking optimization in audit sampling.展开更多
This paper investigates the stability of the international monetary system using the new open economic analysis framework. Our research has discovered that conditions for the stability of the international monetary sy...This paper investigates the stability of the international monetary system using the new open economic analysis framework. Our research has discovered that conditions for the stability of the international monetary system are such that the economic volume of reserve currency countries must be large enough and that the solvency capacity growth rate of reserve currency countries should be no lower than the real output growth rate of non- reserve currency countries and the real return of the reserve currency," the existence of the valuation effect cannot secure the stability of a reserve currency," and inclusion of the euro and the Japanese yen into international reserve currencies cannot stabilize the international monetary system, while Renminbi internationalization plays an irreplaceable role to the stability of the international monetary system.展开更多
Since the start of reform and opening in the late 1970s, China's monetary operation has undergone dramatic changes. The J-curve of Chinese monetary aggregate (total quantity growth) over the period between 1978 an...Since the start of reform and opening in the late 1970s, China's monetary operation has undergone dramatic changes. The J-curve of Chinese monetary aggregate (total quantity growth) over the period between 1978 and 2005 illustrates the changes in total quantity growth, while the changes in monetary structure are shown by an X-curve, and are attributed to the increased ratio of money in circulation to savings (money serving as a store of value) from 6:4 to 4:6. Therefore, the key factor in maintaining supply-and -demand equilibrium in monetary supply has shifted from the supply side to the demand side. The monetary aggregate has influenced the decrease in commodity prices. However, composite prices including assets, reflect the equilibrium of monetary supply and demand. In the face of the changes in Chinese monetary operation, attention should be given to inflation pressure and highly concentrated financial risks in the banking system, and the regulation of monetary demand should be emphasized. The regulation of monetary aggregate and monetary structure are both of vital importance.展开更多
In the framework of an overlapping generations model, forward-looking monetary policy roles and backward-looking monetary policy rules were investigated. It is shown that the monetary steady state is more likely to be...In the framework of an overlapping generations model, forward-looking monetary policy roles and backward-looking monetary policy rules were investigated. It is shown that the monetary steady state is more likely to be indeterminate under an active forwardlooking rule than under the corresponding backward-looking rule. It is also shown that backward-looking roles can render the monetary steady state unstable.展开更多
Through a systematic analysis of China's monetary policy instruments adopted between 2001 and 2010, the author argues that raising required reserve ratios (or RRRs) cannot reduce the overall supply of funds, while ...Through a systematic analysis of China's monetary policy instruments adopted between 2001 and 2010, the author argues that raising required reserve ratios (or RRRs) cannot reduce the overall supply of funds, while raising the deposit and loan interest rate expands credit. Compared with the above two approaches, controlling incremental loan scale is more effective. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015), China should improve its monetary policy system in five aspects: the balance sheet structure of The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the intermediary objective and operation instruments, market orientation of the deposit and loan interest rate, ultimate objective of monetary policies and establishment of a systemframeworkforprudent macrofinancial management.展开更多
The choice of liquidity indicators is a key issue in global liquidity management. Money supply statistics such as M2 are no longer able to reflect the true scale of global liquidity due to the effect of financial glob...The choice of liquidity indicators is a key issue in global liquidity management. Money supply statistics such as M2 are no longer able to reflect the true scale of global liquidity due to the effect of financial globalization. External bank liabilities, as an important indicator to measure global liquidity conditions, are omitted by many countries in their broad money statistics. Given that financial institutions' external liabilities serve as a major source of fiscal shock as well as an important cause for the accumulation of monetary risk, it is imperative to include these external liabilities into the global liquidity indicator system.展开更多
We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United State...We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States.In this study,we use the lat-est vintage of Divisia aggregates,maintained within CFS.We use monthly data,from January 1967 to December 2020,which is a sample period that includes the extreme economic events of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.We then make comparisons between narrow and broad Divisia money measures and find evidence of a nonlinear but reserved possible chaotic explanation of their origin.The application of RPs to broad Divisia monetary aggregates encompasses an additional drift structure around the global financial crisis in 2008.Applying the moving window RQA to the growth rates of narrow and broad Divisia monetary aggregates,we identify periods of changes in data-generating processes and associate such changes to monetary policy regimes and financial innovations that occurred during those times.展开更多
I utilize a differentiable dynamical system á la Lotka-Voletrra and explain monetary and fiscal interaction in a supranational monetary union. The paper demonstrates an applied mathematical approach that provides...I utilize a differentiable dynamical system á la Lotka-Voletrra and explain monetary and fiscal interaction in a supranational monetary union. The paper demonstrates an applied mathematical approach that provides useful insights about the interaction mechanisms in theoretical economics in general and a monetary union in particular. I find that a common central bank is necessary but not sufficient to tackle the new interaction problems in a supranational monetary union, such as the free-riding behaviour of fiscal policies. Moreover, I show that supranational institutions, rules or laws are essential to mitigate violations of decentralized fiscal policies.展开更多
Traditionally, organizations assume that compensation/pay and monetary benefits are what all employees need to work harder, be productive, or remain with the company. According to Abraham Maslow, within every person i...Traditionally, organizations assume that compensation/pay and monetary benefits are what all employees need to work harder, be productive, or remain with the company. According to Abraham Maslow, within every person is a hierarchy of five needs: physiological needs, safety needs, social needs, esteem needs, and self-actualization needs Organizations must be able to identify what employees desire to secure optimum performance and to meet the needs of both employees and employers. This research focuses on the generational gap and the significance of intrinsic and extrinsic rewards in the workforce. The purpose and objective of this research are to test the significance of monetary versus non-monetary rewards among the different generations in the organization. A self-designed questionnaire distributed to a multi-generational group of employees of selected organizations was used to collect the analyzed data. Sixty-five (65%) responses were obtained. Secondary data were used to elucidate the needs in this area of study. Because the workforce is predicted to become more diverse in terms of age, organizations will be unlikely to implement one set of rewards for the multiple generations. This is due to the differing expectations and requirements among the generations. However, the results indicate no significant difference in monetary versus non-monetary rewards among the different generations in the workforce.展开更多
This paper highlights the importance of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Thailand since the 1997 financial crisis and then undertakes an empirical investigation of Thailand monetary policy. This study makes e...This paper highlights the importance of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Thailand since the 1997 financial crisis and then undertakes an empirical investigation of Thailand monetary policy. This study makes effort to address both two aspects of monetary transmission mechanism, namely channels of monetary policy and the effect of monetary policy shocks on key macroeconomic variables. To address these issues, the paper specifies structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models and estimates them using quarterly data from 1997q3 to 2014q4. The identification schemes used in this paper follow Kim and Roubini and Raghavan, Silvapulle, and Athanasopoulos with some modifications. The overall result is that the identifying restrictions used in the SVAR seem to appropriately identify a monetary policy shock even though the exchange rate puzzle is found. The results show that interest rate and monetary aggregate have played the dominant channels of monetary transmission mechanism in Thailand, while an exchange rate channel is decreasingly significant. In addition, Thailand economy is somewhat exposed to the foreign sector especially for the world price of oil and the U.S. monetary policy. The results also reveal the linkage and influence of U.S. monetary policy on Thailand monetary policy. The empirical findings are then used to provide Bank of Thailand (BOT) with insight into identifying the important monetary policy transmission channels. It would help the BOT to implement an effective monetary policy for achieving price stability through the appropriate monetary channels.展开更多
摘要The US dollar-dominated international monetary system has persisted for more than 80 years.The formation of the dollar's dominant position can be traced to historical reasons,and its dominant position is supported by strong network externalities.However,a series of recent changes are deepening the inherent contradictions of the dollar system and weakening the foundation of the dollar's credibility.At the same time,with rising geopolitical risks,the reshaping of the global trading system,and the rapid development of digital currencies,the international monetary system is evolving from being dominated by a single currency toward greater diversification.
基金Key Project of the National Social Science Foundation of China:“A Comparative Study of Unconventional Monetary Policies under the Background of Two Global Recessions”(Project No.23AJL003)Key Project of the Jiangxi Provincial Social Science Foundation:“Research on the Effects of China’s Coordinated Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Economic Growth and Employment”(Project No.23JL01).
摘要In response to the economic impact brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic,the two major countries,China and the United States,have respectively adopted relatively loose monetary policies.This paper mainly adopts the differindifferences model to evaluate the impact of loose monetary policies on the changes in the investment levels of enterprises in the two countries under the background of economic shocks.By comparing the impact of the loose monetary policies of China and the United States on the investment level of enterprises,the research shows that due to the differences in national conditions and policies between China and the United States,the loose monetary policy of the United States mainly affects the capital expenditure of large enterprises.China’s loose monetary policy has also significantly affected corporate investment,but its effects vary in terms of different enterprise scales,geographical locations and equity natures.Further analysis reveals that China’s loose monetary policy has been more effective in promoting investment by small and medium-sized enterprises,enterprises in the eastern region and state-owned enterprises.China’s loose monetary policy still needs to be further improved in the future to ensure the stable development of the national economy.
摘要We often hear statements like“the market raises expectations for central bank interest rate cuts,resulting in higher commodity prices”.Given the current situation,the People’s Bank of China might adopt a more accommodative monetary policy to mitigate the impact of the China-U.S.trade friction.Will this further easing of the monetary environment lead to an increase in natural gas prices?
摘要We employ the Multi-Scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity Confidence Indicator(MS-LPPLS-CI)approach to identify positive and negative bubbles in the short-,medium,and long-term for the Indian stock market,using weekly data from November 2003 to December 2020.We use a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach to analyze the predictive impact of monetary policy shocks on bubble indicators.We find,in general,strong evidence of predictability across the entire conditional distribution for the two monetary policy shock factors,with stronger impacts for negative bubbles.Our findings have critical implications for the Reserve Bank of India,academics,and investors.
基金a result of the Major Project of the National Social Science Fund of China (NSSFC)“Study on Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy Coordination under the Dual Economic Circulations”(Grant No.20&ZD104)
摘要As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incorporates fiscal and monetary policies,this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to fiscal shocks.Our study finds that during the occurrence of a fiscal shock,the growth rate of broad money supply M2 substantially increased,indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to fiscal policy expansion.Based on this empirical finding,this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the fiscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination.Our analysis shows that monetary policy coordination will significantly boost the economic stimulus effect of fiscal policy,generating a fiscal crowding-in effect.From the perspective of China’s institutional strength,this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the fiscal crowdingin effect uncovered in the research literature,and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective.This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.
摘要The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk,industrial production,and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018.We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables,capturing their global effects,and use a novel econometric technique,namely,smooth local projections.The study finds that global macroprudential policy leads the monetary policy,exhibiting a countercyclical pattern concerning industrial production.The latter has an inverse bidirectional linkage with systemic risk.Thus,an ex-ante tight macroprudential policy can indirectly mitigate global systemic risk through its pro-growth effect on industrial production,although no convincing evidence exists for the direct impact of a macroprudential intervention on systemic risk.The study results endure several extensions and a robustness check,which builds on alternative measures of global systemic stress and real economic activity,thereby legitimizing the increased importance attached to the macroprudential policy since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.
基金the Humanity and Social Science on Youth Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(No.14YJC790152)the Foundation of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission(No.2016-SHNGE-03-ZD)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2013M531157)
摘要Using system clustering method to group China's provinces into 3 new groups according to their housing prices, then establishing a state-space model and applying the Kalman filter calculation, we made a comparative analysis of the influences of different types of monetary policy instruments towards different regional housing prices. The empirical results show that both the quantitative instruments represented by M2 and the pricing instruments represented by real interest rate have increasing influences on different regional housing prices,but the former influence is much stronger than the latter. The influential differences of quantitative instruments to regional housing prices are much greater. It means the higher the regional housing price is, the greater the influence is. Therefore, the central bank shall optimize the combination of monetary policy instruments according to the above characteristics of different types of monetary policy instruments in order to acquire the regulatory target of real estate market.
摘要Empirical research has shown that there were international spillover effects from the U.S. monetary policy to output level, net exports and price levels of each country, and the impact on prices in each country was of synchronous effect. The structural impulse response analysis showed that U.S. monetary policy could improve U.S. income and payment without damaging U.S. economic growth, but the shocks negatively affected the economic growth in the rest of the world. Hence, it's important to pay close attention to the moral risks of U.S. monetary policy to evade the global shocks caused by the "benefit-itself-at-the-expense-of-others" polices of the American government. Besides these findings, U.S. monetary policy shocks strongly affect China's trade surplus fluctuations. Based on this, we propose that the approaches of balancing China's current account could be explored efficiently from the perspective of monetary policy.
摘要Financial innovations not only lower the sensitivity of investment to interest rate, but also increase the sensitivity of financial assets price to interest rate, which lowers transaction cost and promotes transaction efficiency for economic system. As a result, the IS curve slopes more steeply downward and the LM curve slopes more gently upward than they do without financial innovations. So transmission mechanism of monetary policies and their effects are weakened in interest rate channel as well as in credit channel, but the latter have comparative advantage. Therefore, we must devote major efforts to developing and reforming banks and security market under the financial innovations circumstances. At the same time, financial innovations may not be promoted hastily.
基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(No.JUSRP1071)National Social Science Foundation of China(No.11CGL086)
摘要On account of the lack of monetary unit sampling( MUS), an extended audit game model based on uncertainty information,which centers on audit risk and combines audit game with statistical sampling,is established to improve the effectiveness of audit risks analysis and sampling errors control. In this paper,an example concerning practical problems is given to demonstrate the process of extended audit game and confirm the truth of the effectiveness of the method. Not only does this method enhance the role of audit technology and the extension of audit procedures in deterring material irregularities,but also helps the auditors measure and control audit risk and sample sizes under uncertainty,conducive to improving the effect of cost control,risk evaluation,and decisionmaking optimization in audit sampling.
基金the research program Renminbi Internationalization and Adjustment of Internal and External Imbalances of China’s Economy(NKZXB1222)supported by the Special Fund of Fundamental Scientific Research of Central Universities
摘要This paper investigates the stability of the international monetary system using the new open economic analysis framework. Our research has discovered that conditions for the stability of the international monetary system are such that the economic volume of reserve currency countries must be large enough and that the solvency capacity growth rate of reserve currency countries should be no lower than the real output growth rate of non- reserve currency countries and the real return of the reserve currency," the existence of the valuation effect cannot secure the stability of a reserve currency," and inclusion of the euro and the Japanese yen into international reserve currencies cannot stabilize the international monetary system, while Renminbi internationalization plays an irreplaceable role to the stability of the international monetary system.
摘要Since the start of reform and opening in the late 1970s, China's monetary operation has undergone dramatic changes. The J-curve of Chinese monetary aggregate (total quantity growth) over the period between 1978 and 2005 illustrates the changes in total quantity growth, while the changes in monetary structure are shown by an X-curve, and are attributed to the increased ratio of money in circulation to savings (money serving as a store of value) from 6:4 to 4:6. Therefore, the key factor in maintaining supply-and -demand equilibrium in monetary supply has shifted from the supply side to the demand side. The monetary aggregate has influenced the decrease in commodity prices. However, composite prices including assets, reflect the equilibrium of monetary supply and demand. In the face of the changes in Chinese monetary operation, attention should be given to inflation pressure and highly concentrated financial risks in the banking system, and the regulation of monetary demand should be emphasized. The regulation of monetary aggregate and monetary structure are both of vital importance.
基金Project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 70071012)
摘要In the framework of an overlapping generations model, forward-looking monetary policy roles and backward-looking monetary policy rules were investigated. It is shown that the monetary steady state is more likely to be indeterminate under an active forwardlooking rule than under the corresponding backward-looking rule. It is also shown that backward-looking roles can render the monetary steady state unstable.
摘要Through a systematic analysis of China's monetary policy instruments adopted between 2001 and 2010, the author argues that raising required reserve ratios (or RRRs) cannot reduce the overall supply of funds, while raising the deposit and loan interest rate expands credit. Compared with the above two approaches, controlling incremental loan scale is more effective. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015), China should improve its monetary policy system in five aspects: the balance sheet structure of The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the intermediary objective and operation instruments, market orientation of the deposit and loan interest rate, ultimate objective of monetary policies and establishment of a systemframeworkforprudent macrofinancial management.
摘要The choice of liquidity indicators is a key issue in global liquidity management. Money supply statistics such as M2 are no longer able to reflect the true scale of global liquidity due to the effect of financial globalization. External bank liabilities, as an important indicator to measure global liquidity conditions, are omitted by many countries in their broad money statistics. Given that financial institutions' external liabilities serve as a major source of fiscal shock as well as an important cause for the accumulation of monetary risk, it is imperative to include these external liabilities into the global liquidity indicator system.
摘要We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States.In this study,we use the lat-est vintage of Divisia aggregates,maintained within CFS.We use monthly data,from January 1967 to December 2020,which is a sample period that includes the extreme economic events of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.We then make comparisons between narrow and broad Divisia money measures and find evidence of a nonlinear but reserved possible chaotic explanation of their origin.The application of RPs to broad Divisia monetary aggregates encompasses an additional drift structure around the global financial crisis in 2008.Applying the moving window RQA to the growth rates of narrow and broad Divisia monetary aggregates,we identify periods of changes in data-generating processes and associate such changes to monetary policy regimes and financial innovations that occurred during those times.
摘要I utilize a differentiable dynamical system á la Lotka-Voletrra and explain monetary and fiscal interaction in a supranational monetary union. The paper demonstrates an applied mathematical approach that provides useful insights about the interaction mechanisms in theoretical economics in general and a monetary union in particular. I find that a common central bank is necessary but not sufficient to tackle the new interaction problems in a supranational monetary union, such as the free-riding behaviour of fiscal policies. Moreover, I show that supranational institutions, rules or laws are essential to mitigate violations of decentralized fiscal policies.
摘要Traditionally, organizations assume that compensation/pay and monetary benefits are what all employees need to work harder, be productive, or remain with the company. According to Abraham Maslow, within every person is a hierarchy of five needs: physiological needs, safety needs, social needs, esteem needs, and self-actualization needs Organizations must be able to identify what employees desire to secure optimum performance and to meet the needs of both employees and employers. This research focuses on the generational gap and the significance of intrinsic and extrinsic rewards in the workforce. The purpose and objective of this research are to test the significance of monetary versus non-monetary rewards among the different generations in the organization. A self-designed questionnaire distributed to a multi-generational group of employees of selected organizations was used to collect the analyzed data. Sixty-five (65%) responses were obtained. Secondary data were used to elucidate the needs in this area of study. Because the workforce is predicted to become more diverse in terms of age, organizations will be unlikely to implement one set of rewards for the multiple generations. This is due to the differing expectations and requirements among the generations. However, the results indicate no significant difference in monetary versus non-monetary rewards among the different generations in the workforce.
摘要This paper highlights the importance of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Thailand since the 1997 financial crisis and then undertakes an empirical investigation of Thailand monetary policy. This study makes effort to address both two aspects of monetary transmission mechanism, namely channels of monetary policy and the effect of monetary policy shocks on key macroeconomic variables. To address these issues, the paper specifies structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models and estimates them using quarterly data from 1997q3 to 2014q4. The identification schemes used in this paper follow Kim and Roubini and Raghavan, Silvapulle, and Athanasopoulos with some modifications. The overall result is that the identifying restrictions used in the SVAR seem to appropriately identify a monetary policy shock even though the exchange rate puzzle is found. The results show that interest rate and monetary aggregate have played the dominant channels of monetary transmission mechanism in Thailand, while an exchange rate channel is decreasingly significant. In addition, Thailand economy is somewhat exposed to the foreign sector especially for the world price of oil and the U.S. monetary policy. The results also reveal the linkage and influence of U.S. monetary policy on Thailand monetary policy. The empirical findings are then used to provide Bank of Thailand (BOT) with insight into identifying the important monetary policy transmission channels. It would help the BOT to implement an effective monetary policy for achieving price stability through the appropriate monetary channels.