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Advancing Asian Monsoon Climate Prediction under Global Change:Progress,Challenges,and Outlook 认领 引用 被引量：3
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作者 Bin WANG Fei LIU +9 位作者 Renguang WU Qinghua DING Shaobo QIAO Juan LI Zhiwei WU Keerthi SASIKUMAR Jianping LI Qing BAO Haishan CHEN Yuhang XIANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2026年第1期1-29,共29页
Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ... Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction. 展开更多
关键词 Asian summer monsoon monsoon climate prediction climate predictability predictability sources seasonal prediction models seasonal prediction techniques artificial intelligence
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Enhanced Impacts of ENSO on the Commencement of the Tropical Asian Summer Monsoon in May after 1976/77 认领 引用
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作者 Yongmao PENG Peng HU +6 位作者 Wen CHEN Ruowen YANG Jingnan LI Qi YAN Ziqi NIU Kexu ZHU Xinyang YAN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2026年第5期919-932,I0001-I0006,共14页
The commencement of the tropical Asian summer monsoon(TASM)in May is a crucial phase in its seasonal evolution,with critical implications for agriculture and water resources.Based on observational and reanalysis data,... The commencement of the tropical Asian summer monsoon(TASM)in May is a crucial phase in its seasonal evolution,with critical implications for agriculture and water resources.Based on observational and reanalysis data,this study finds that the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and monsoon commencement experiences a notable interdecadal strengthening after 1976/77.While the response of tropical tropospheric temperature to ENSO remains largely unchanged,ENSO induces a stronger Walker circulation,a more pronounced equatorial Rossby wave,and an intensified extratropical Rossby wave train after 1976/77.These enhanced atmospheric processes,which directly reinforce the ENSO-TASM commencement relationship,are likely driven by interdecadal shifts in the structure and variance of ENSO.Post-1976/77,ENSO displays increased variance and a more coherent structure,with more pronounced sea surface temperature anomalies in the western North Pacific and subtropical North Pacific.Given the limitations of observational data,a 1000-year piControl experiment further confirms the role of ENSO variance changes in strengthening its influence on monsoon commencement.Our findings underscore the critical influence of evolving ENSO characteristics on climate anomalies such as monsoon commencement,offering potential insights for short-term climate prediction. 展开更多
关键词 tropical Asian summer monsoon monsoon commencement ENSO interdecadal change
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The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons:Current Status and Future Perspectives 认领 引用
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作者 Tianjun ZHOU Xiaolong CHEN +11 位作者 Wenxia ZHANG Bo WU Ziming CHEN Jie JIANG Xin HUANG Shuai HU Meng ZUO Wenmin MAN Lixia ZHANG Zhun GUO Pengfei LIN Lu WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2026年第1期30-58,共29页
The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risk... The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions. 展开更多
关键词 global monsoons interannual variability decadal variability detection and attribution climate extreme events projection uncertainty
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Differential Vegetation Feedback on the Global Land Monsoon System during the Mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial 认领 引用
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作者 Zhenqian WANG Qiong ZHANG +1 位作者 Jie CHEN Zixuan HAN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2026年第1期103-119,共17页
This study investigates the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the global land monsoon system during the Last Interglacial(LIG,127000 years BP)and the mid-Holocene(MH,6000 years BP)using the earth system model E... This study investigates the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the global land monsoon system during the Last Interglacial(LIG,127000 years BP)and the mid-Holocene(MH,6000 years BP)using the earth system model EC-Earth3.Our findings indicate that vegetation changes significantly influence the global monsoon area and precipitation patterns,especially in the North African and Indian monsoon regions.The North African monsoon region experienced the most substantial increase in vegetation during both the LIG and MH,resulting in significant increases in monsoonal precipitation by 9.8%and 6.0%,respectively.The vegetation feedback also intensified the Saharan Heat Low,strengthened monsoonal flows,and enhanced precipitation over the North African monsoon region.In contrast,the Indian monsoon region exhibited divergent responses to vegetation changes.During the LIG,precipitation in the Indian monsoon region decreased by 2.2%,while it increased by 1.6%during the MH.These differences highlight the complex and region-specific impacts of vegetation feedback on monsoon systems.Overall,this study demonstrates that vegetation feedback exerts distinct influences on the global monsoon during the MH and LIG.These findings highlight the importance of considering vegetation-climate feedback in understanding past monsoon variability and in predicting future climate change impacts on monsoon systems. 展开更多
关键词 Last Interglacial mid-Holocene global land monsoon vegetation feedback
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Multi-method characterization of grain-size sensitive components in deep-sea sediments from the Zhongnan Seamount,South China Sea:implications for monsoon-volcanic interactions and turbidity current events 认领 引用
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作者 Yuanfu Yue Xintian Yu +2 位作者 Liuying He Xinmeng Yuan Kefu Yu 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2026年第2期162-174,共13页
Grain-size sensitive component separation(GSCS)methods are pivotal for paleoenvironmental reconstruction but remain underexplored in tectonically active deep-sea seamount settings like the central South China Sea(SCS)... Grain-size sensitive component separation(GSCS)methods are pivotal for paleoenvironmental reconstruction but remain underexplored in tectonically active deep-sea seamount settings like the central South China Sea(SCS).This study presents the first systematic comparison of three GSCS techniques,namely standard deviation(STD),endmember modeling(EMM),and principal component analysis(PCA).These methods are applied specifically to sediment core GT-06 recovered from the Zhongnan Seamount in the central South China Sea.By integrating grain-size unmixing with complementary proxies,including magnetic susceptibility(MS)and loss on ignition(LOI),we assess the resolving power of each method and relate the resulting components to site-specific sedimentary processes(e.g.,summer monsoon,volcanic activity,seamount collapse-induced turbidity currents).Key results show that all methods identified three dominant grain-size ranges(clay,silt-sand,coarse sand)with robust inter-method correlations.Critically,EMM and PCA uniquely resolved a volcanic-derived silt component(EM2)that was undetectable using the STD method,highlighting a key limitation of STD in complex settings.Four geologically meaningful end-members were identified:(1)fine-grained terrigenous clay linked to the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM),(2)volcanic detritus reflecting Quaternary submarine eruptions,(3)siliceous biogenic debris indicative of monsoon-modulated productivity,and(4)coarse calcareous fragments associated with seamount collapse-induced turbidity currents.The results highlight the superior ability of EMM/PCA to resolve complex signals,whereas STD serves as an efficient yet limited tool for first-order screening.Together,these methods form a site-adapted framework for tectonically active deep-sea seamounts:EMM/PCA enabling fine-scale interpretation of monsoon-volcanic-turbidity interactions,and STD supports rapid large-dataset comparison.This workflow improves the reliability of paleoenvironmental reconstructions in mixed-signal settings like the Zhongnan Seamount. 展开更多
关键词 grain-size sensitive component separation South China Sea Zhongnan Seamount East Asian monsoon volcanic activity turbidity currents deep-sea sediments
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Decreased Interhemispheric Asymmetries of Global Land Monsoon Precipitation toward the Carbon Neutrality Goal 认领 引用
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作者 Xiaochao YU Hua ZHANG +1 位作者 Zhili WANG Bing XIE 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2026年第1期120-134,共15页
Global land monsoon precipitation(GLMP)is highly sensitive to changes in interhemispheric thermal contrast(ITC).Amplified interhemispheric asymmetries of GLMP due to enhanced ITC driven by high-level anthropogenic emi... Global land monsoon precipitation(GLMP)is highly sensitive to changes in interhemispheric thermal contrast(ITC).Amplified interhemispheric asymmetries of GLMP due to enhanced ITC driven by high-level anthropogenic emissions are expected to simultaneously increase the probability of regional floods and droughts,threatening ecosystems within global terrestrial monsoon regions and the freshwater supply for billions of residents in these areas.In this study,the responses of GLMP to the evolution of ITC toward the carbon neutrality goal are assessed using multimodel outputs from a new model intercomparison project(CovidMIP).The results show that the Northern Hemisphere-Southern Hemisphere(NH-SH)asymmetry of GLMP in boreal summer weakens during the 2040s,as a persistent reduction in well-mixed greenhouse gas(WMGHG)emissions leads to a downward trend in the ITC after 2040.At the same time,the reduction in WMGHG emissions dampens the Eastern Hemisphere-Western Hemisphere(EH-WH)asymmetry of GLMP by inducing La Niña-like cooling and enhancing moisture transport to Inner America.The resulting increases in land monsoon precipitation(LMP)may alleviate drought under the global warming scenario by about 19%-25%and 7%-9%in the WH and SH monsoon regions,respectively.However,a persistent reduction in aerosol emissions in Asia will dominate the increases in LMP in this region until the mid-21st century,and these increases may be approximately 23%-60%of the growth under the global warming scenario.Our results highlight the different rates of response of aerosol and WMGHG concentrations to the carbon neutrality goal,leading to various changes in LMP at global and regional scales. 展开更多
关键词 global land monsoon precipitation interhemispheric thermal contrast carbon neutrality goal CovidMIP
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Monsoon vs.non‑monsoon precipitation isotopes in Southwest China:Contrasting roles of moisture sources,Tibetan hydroclimate,and local amount effects 认领 引用
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作者 ZHAO Pei TANG Jialiang 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2026年第5期2199-2209,共11页
Natural stable isotopes in precipitation provide important information on water vapor sources and atmospheric convection processes,which play key roles in climate change,hydrological cycle,and paleoclimate reconstruct... Natural stable isotopes in precipitation provide important information on water vapor sources and atmospheric convection processes,which play key roles in climate change,hydrological cycle,and paleoclimate reconstruction.However,the controlling mechanisms of precipitation isotopes in subtropical regions remain insufficiently understood.This study aimed to clarify the dominant controls on precipitation isotope variability and their seasonal differences in a typical subtropical region of Southwest China.Monthly precipitation samples were continuously collected at the Yanting experimental station in Sichuan,Southwest China from 2012 to 2020.The oxygen isotope ratio(δ18O)and deuterium excess(d-excess)in precipitation were analyzed,and their relationships with precipitation amount,large-scale atmospheric circulation,and moisture source regions were examined using statistical analysis and a structural equation model.The results showed a significant negative relationship between anomaly precipitation amount and monthlyδ18O values,particularly during the monsoon season,indicating a pronounced precipitation amount effect.Structural equation modeling revealed that this effect was mainly driven by hydrometeorological conditions over the seas and Tibetan Plateau.Moisture from the Bay of Bengal was identified as a more influential source than the South China Sea,largely associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation,and its contribution has increased in recent years.In contrast,during the nonmonsoon season,precipitationδ18O variations showed no significant relationship with any local factor,suggesting a combined influence of teleconnections and local processes.These findings demonstrate that precipitation isotopes in Southwest China are governed by distinct seasonal mechanisms,underscoring the critical roles of large-scale atmospheric circulation,Tibetan Plateau hydroclimate,and moisture source dynamics in modulating isotope variability across subtropical monsoon regions. 展开更多
关键词 Stable isotope Vapor source Structural equation model Precipitation amount effect Subtropical region Monsoon season
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Asian Monsoon Climate Prediction 认领 引用
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作者 Chih-Pei CHANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2026年第5期1092-1094,共3页
Since Blanford(1884)first linked Himalayan snowfall to subsequent Indian summer monsoon(ISM)rainfall,the potential for long-range forecasting has been recognized.Key advances followed:discovery of the Southern Oscilla... Since Blanford(1884)first linked Himalayan snowfall to subsequent Indian summer monsoon(ISM)rainfall,the potential for long-range forecasting has been recognized.Key advances followed:discovery of the Southern Oscillation(Walker,1925;Walker and Bliss,1932);identification of the Pacific-North American pattern(Wallace and Gutzler,1981);and Bjerknes’(1969)seminal study of ENSO as a predictable climate driver.Foundational theory—including equatorial wave dynamics(Matsuno,1966;Webster,1972;Gill,1980). 展开更多
关键词 pacific north american pattern equatorial wave dynamics enso southern oscillation walker walker equatorial wave dynamics matsuno webster gill asian monsoon southern oscillation
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Prediction of the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon based on machine learning 认领 引用
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作者 Suan Hu Yineng Li +3 位作者 Jieshuo Xie Ke Huang Wenping Gong Lu Yang 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CAS CSCD 2026年第4期8-13,共6页
Accurately predicting the onset of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)is crucial for agricultural planning and disaster prevention for countries surrounding the SCS.However,due to the limited availability of... Accurately predicting the onset of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)is crucial for agricultural planning and disaster prevention for countries surrounding the SCS.However,due to the limited availability of data(only one data point per year),the prediction of the onset date of the SCSSM faces significant uncertainty.In this study,the authors propose a new forecasting method for the onset date of the SCSSM using the Random Forest regression model called MMPM(Multi-model Prediction Method).The MMPM generates a large number of randomly initialized predictive models(∼10000)and selects the optimal one based on data from the past nine years to predict the date of SCSSM onset for the following year.By using this method,the authors effectively mitigate the impact of interdecadal variability and predict the date one month before the onset of the SCSSM using factors such as sea surface temperature,mean sea level pressure,and temperature tendency from the previous few months.Compared to an existing statistical forecasting method(SM-17),the MMPM improves the predictive performance by over 10%.This study demonstrates the effectiveness of an innovative strategy in overcoming data limitations and providing better tools for predicting important weather patterns. 展开更多
关键词 South China Sea Summer monsoon Machine learning Prediction
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Impacts of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ Global Warming on the Onset,Cessation,and Length of the Rainy Season in Global Land Monsoon Regions 认领 引用
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作者 Thierry N.TAGUELA Ibraheem RAJI +4 位作者 Akintomide A.AKINSANOLA Priyanshi SINGHAI Oluwafemi E.ADEYERI Caroline M.WAINWRIGHT Rondrotiana BARIMALALA 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2026年第1期87-102,共16页
The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.... The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.In this study,we analyze how global warming levels(GWLs)of 1.5℃ and 2℃ could affect the timing of rainfall onset(RODs),rainfall cessation(RCDs),and the overall duration of the rainy season(LRS)over global land monsoon(GLM)regions using simulations from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.With high model consensus,our results reveal that RODs are projected to occur later over Southern Africa,North Africa,and South America,but earlier over South Asia and Australia,in a warmer climate.The projected early RODs in Australia are more pronounced at the 2℃ GWL under SSP5-8.5.On the other hand,early RCDs are projected over South America and East Asia,while late RCDs are projected over North Africa,with high inter-model agreement.These changes are associated with a future decrease in LRS in most GLM regions.Additionally,we found that continuous warming over 1.5℃ will further reduce the length of the rainy season,especially over the South America,North Africa,and Southern Africa monsoon regions.The findings underscore the urgent need to mitigate global warming. 展开更多
关键词 rainfall onset rainfall cessation global land monsoon rainy season length CMIP6 projections global warming levels
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Key Mechanisms Leading to the East-West Asymmetric Impacts of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on the West African Monsoon 认领 引用
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作者 Moussa Diakhaté Abdou Lahat Dieng 《Open Journal of Modern Hydrology》 CAS 2026年第1期84-98,共15页
Convectively coupled Kelvin waves(CCKWs)are among the most influential sources of synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability affecting the West African monsoon.Yet,how their impacts differ across the West Africa and why ra... Convectively coupled Kelvin waves(CCKWs)are among the most influential sources of synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability affecting the West African monsoon.Yet,how their impacts differ across the West Africa and why rainfall transitions occur earlier in some regions than others remain poorly documented.Using daily observations and reanalysis fields for 1981-2024,this study investigates Kelvin-wave modulation of West African rainfall during July-September,focusing on the contrasting responses of eastern and western West Africa.Composite analyses reveal a coherent wet(phase 2)and dry(phase 6)structure,but with markedly sharper and earlier transitions in the east.The Intertropical Discontinuity and vertical wind shear show little longitudinal dependence,indicating that surface and mesoscale factors do not drive the asymmetry.Instead,the key mechanism originates from the vertical generation of humidity anomalies by Kelvin-wave-induced subsidence and ascent.Eastern West Africa exhibits deeper mid-level drying during the wet-todry transition and earlier moistening during the dry-to-wet transition,producing stronger humidity anomalies q′.These anomalies are subsequently redistributed horizontally by the mean monsoon flow,yielding earlier sign reversals in the flux term uq′.Western regions,with a weaker vertical response,transition more gradually.This integrated vertical-horizontal mechanism explains the spatial heterogeneity of Kelvin-wave impacts and highlights the need for forecasting systems to resolve regional differences in vertical humidity sensitivity. 展开更多
关键词 Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves West African Monsoon Moisture Flux and Humidity Anomalies Intraseasonal Variability Zonal Rainfall Asymmetry
Recent Advances in Understanding Multi-scale Climate Variability of the Asian Monsoon 认领 引用 被引量：30
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作者 Wen CHEN Renhe ZHANG +12 位作者 Renguang WU Zhiping WEN Liantong ZHOU Lin WANG Peng HU Tianjiao MA Jinling PIAO Lei SONG Zhibiao WANG Juncong LI Hainan GONG Jingliang HUANGFU Yong LIU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第8期1429-1456,共28页
Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field i... Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed,with a focus on the past several years.The achievements are summarized into the following topics:(1)the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon;(2)the East Asian summer monsoon;(3)the East Asian winter monsoon;and(4)the Indian summer monsoon.Specifically,new results are highlighted,including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal,Indochina Peninsula,and South China Sea;the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020,which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes;the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions,which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability(mostly the Arctic Oscillation);and the accelerated warming over South Asia,which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming,is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999.A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability. 展开更多
关键词 Asian monsoon multi-scale climate variability monsoon onset East Asian summer monsoon East Asian winter monsoon Indian summer monsoon
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Upscale Convective Growth Prevailing on the Monsoon Coast with Changing Atmospheric Conditions and Local Forcings 认领 引用 被引量：1
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作者 Sijia ZHANG Guixing CHEN +1 位作者 Lanqiang BAI Lin SU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2025年第11期2247-2262,共16页
Active atmospheric convection on the monsoon coast is crucial for the Earth’s climate system.In particular,the upscale convective growth(UCG)from ordinary isolated convection to organized convective system is a key p... Active atmospheric convection on the monsoon coast is crucial for the Earth’s climate system.In particular,the upscale convective growth(UCG)from ordinary isolated convection to organized convective system is a key process causing severe weather,but its activities on the monsoon coast are less understood because of the lack of fine-resolution datasets.For the first time,we present the climatology of UCG on a typical monsoon coast using kilometer-mesh radar data from southern China.The UCG undergoes pronounced subseasonal and diurnal variations in the early-summer rainy season.The subseasonal UCG increase is attributed to the onshore flows shifting from easterlies in April to monsoon southwesterlies in June.UCG becomes vigorous following summer monsoon onset,with hotspots near windward coastal mountains.Daytime UCG first peaks near noontime along coastal land,where onshore flows are destabilized by boundary-layer heating and mountains.Afternoon inland peaks and off-coast minimums are recognized due to land–sea thermal contrast and sea-breeze circulation.Nighttime UCG is revived at the coast by nocturnally enhanced southerlies,followed by offshore activity as the convergence of land-breeze northerlies shifts seaward.The UCG thus responds strongly to changing atmospheric conditions,land heating/cooling,and thermally driven local circulations.Our results may help clarify the predictability of monsoon coastal convection. 展开更多
关键词 upscale convective growth monsoon coast convection diurnal variations
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Primary and Secondary Calcite in Chinese Loess Distinguished by Crystallinity and Implications for Illuviation Depth and East Asian Summer Monsoon Intensity 认领 引用 被引量：1
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作者 Yan Zhao Kang-Jun Huang +3 位作者 Yuanqiang Guo Pan Zhang Yawen Lu Long Ma 《Journal of Earth Science》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2025年第6期2789-2797,共9页
The crystallinity has the potential to distinguish the primary and secondary calcite in Chinese loess, which then provides insights into illuviation depth and variations of the East Asian Summer Monsoon. However, this... The crystallinity has the potential to distinguish the primary and secondary calcite in Chinese loess, which then provides insights into illuviation depth and variations of the East Asian Summer Monsoon. However, this aspect has been rarely investigated. In this study, we defined the crystallinity of calcite as the height/area (H/A) ratio of the diffracted peak at crystal face (1 0 4). The H/A ratio inversely correlates with the average width of the diffracted peak, where a higher H/A ratio indicates higher crystallinity of calcite. Through the mixing and synthetic experiments, we found that the H/A ratio is minimally affected by factors such as calcite content, deposition temperature or rate but significantly influenced by the ionic impurity and the mixing proportion of different calcites. Subsequently, we examined desert samples of loess sources and loess carbonate nodules. Desert samples predominantly consist of primary calcite which inherits characteristics from cryptocrystalline limestone with high levels of ionic impurities resulting in low H/A ratio of 4.30 ± 0.51. In contrast, loess carbonate nodules contain abundant secondary calcite precipitated within soil interstices with low levels of ionic impurities leading to a significantly higher H/A ratio of 7.76 ± 0.82. Consequently, higher H/A ratios during interglacial periods compared to glacial periods are attributed to variations in relative proportions between primary and secondary calcite in loess sequences. The thickness, between the glacial-interglacial boundary and the depth where the H/A ratio starts to increase from the bottom to the top in the loess layer, can be used to indicate the illuviation depth of upper-soil carbonates and the intensity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon. This proxy can be further applied in long-term loess sequences to uncover the summer monsoon evolution. 展开更多
关键词 calcite crystallinity primary and secondary calcites Chinese loess illuviation depth East Asian Summer Monsoon climate change environmental geology
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Improving subseasonal forecasting of East Asian monsoon precipitation with deep learning 认领 引用 被引量：2
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作者 Jiahui Zhou Fei Liu 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2025年第3期34-40,共7页
Accurate subseasonal forecasting of East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)precipitation is crucial,as it directly impacts the livelihoods of billions.However,the prediction skill of state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal(S... Accurate subseasonal forecasting of East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)precipitation is crucial,as it directly impacts the livelihoods of billions.However,the prediction skill of state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)models for precipitation remains limited.In this study,the authors developed a convolutional neural network(CNN)regression model to enhance the prediction skill for weekly EASM precipitation by utilizing the more reliably predicted circulation fields from dynamic models.The outcomes of the CNN model are promising,as it led to a 14%increase in the anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC),from 0.30 to 0.35,and a 22%reduction in the root-mean-square error(RMSE),from 3.22 to 2.52,for predicting the weekly EASM precipitation index at a leading time of one week.Among the S2S models,the improvement in prediction skill through CNN correction depends on the model’s performance in accurately predicting circulation fields.The CNN correction of EASM precipitation index can only rectify the systematic errors of the model and is independent of whether the each grid point or the entire area-averaged index is corrected.Furthermore,u200(200-hPa zonal wind)is identified as the most important variable for efficient correction. 展开更多
关键词 East asian monsoon precipitation Subseasonal forecast Deep learning Bias correction
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Short-and Long-lived Break Events during the South China Sea Summer Monsoon and Their Associations with Intraseasonal Oscillations 认领 引用
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作者 Minghao BI Ke XU +1 位作者 Xiaoxuan ZHAO Riyu LU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2025年第5期855-869,共15页
This study conducts a comparative investigation between short-lived(3-8 days)and long-lived(9-24 days)break events of the South China Sea summer monsoon during 1979-2020,focusing on their statistical characteristics a... This study conducts a comparative investigation between short-lived(3-8 days)and long-lived(9-24 days)break events of the South China Sea summer monsoon during 1979-2020,focusing on their statistical characteristics and potential mechanisms for their different persistence.Results suggest that both types of events are characterized by anomalously suppressed convection accompanied by an anomalous anticyclone during the break period.However,these convection and circulation anomalies exhibit more localized patterns for short-lived events,but possess larger spatial scales and stronger intensities for long-lived events.The influence of tropical intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs)on short-and long-lived events is explored to interpret their different durations.It is found that for short-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation is dominant in initiating and terminating the break,while the impact of the 30-60-day oscillation is secondary,thus resulting in a brief break period.In contrast,for long-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation contributes to break development rather than its initiation,and concurrently,the 30-60-day oscillation shows a remarkable enhancement and plays a decisive role in prolonging the break duration.Furthermore,we find that long-lived events are preceded by significant ISO activities approximately two weeks before their occurrence,which can be regarded as efficient predictors.Associated with these precursory ISOs,the occurrence probability of break days for long-lived events can rise up to triple their original probability(35.43%vs.11.21%). 展开更多
关键词 South China Sea summer monsoon monsoon break intraseasonal oscillations atmospheric circulation convection
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A non-ENSO driver of the South China Sea winter monsoon:North Pacific sea ice 认领 引用
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作者 Chang Kong Xiaodan Chen +1 位作者 Zhiping Wen Yuanyuan Guo 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2025年第5期41-47,共7页
The South China Sea winter monsoon(SCSWM),an integral component of the East Asian winter monsoon,connects extratropical and tropical regions.Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis and PAMIP simulations,the relationship between Arc... The South China Sea winter monsoon(SCSWM),an integral component of the East Asian winter monsoon,connects extratropical and tropical regions.Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis and PAMIP simulations,the relationship between Arctic sea ice and the SCSWM is investigated.The authors reveal that its strongest relationship with Arctic sea ice occurs in the North Pacific sector,i.e.,the Sea of Okhotsk and western Bering Sea.This link persists throughout the cold season,peaks when sea ice precedes the SCSWM by one month,and is independent of ENSO.North Pacific sea-ice loss weakens the meridional temperature gradient(MTG)and vertical wind shear in midlatitudes,reducing baroclinic eddy formation.Given the reduced zonal wind according to the thermal wind relation,the reduced wave activity flux in the upper troposphere must be balanced by equatorward wind based on the quasi-geostrophic momentum equation.This generates an anomalous meridional overturning circulation with descent and low-level divergence around 30°N,which intensifies the divergent component of the SCSWM.The divergent northerly anomalies also lead to cold advection and subtropical cooling.The enhanced MTG due to the subtropical cooling and weakened MTG due to high-latitude warming closely tied to reduced North Pacific sea ice displace the westerly jet southward,creating cyclonic shears over the North Pacific and intensifying the rotational component of the SCSWM.These findings establish North Pacific sea ice as a non-ENSO driver of the SCSWM,holding substantial implications for the predictability of the SCSWM. 展开更多
关键词 South China Sea winter monsoon Arctic sea ice East Asian winter monsoon PAMIP
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Phase-and Amplitude-Locking of Annual Maximum Rainfall Events in North China with the Annual Cycle of the East Asian Summer Monsoon 认领 引用
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作者 Wanyi SUN Congwen ZHU +2 位作者 Boqi LIU Yuhan YAN Zhiqi YAN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2025年第8期1608-1619,共12页
The annual maximum rainfall event(AMRE)refers to the maximum consecutive five-day rainfall in a year.In North China,these events account for 15%–80%of the total summer(June–August)rainfall amount and pose a great ch... The annual maximum rainfall event(AMRE)refers to the maximum consecutive five-day rainfall in a year.In North China,these events account for 15%–80%of the total summer(June–August)rainfall amount and pose a great challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting.Based on data analyses during 1979–2023,this study shows the interannual variability of AMRE is significantly influenced by the phase and amplitude mode of the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM),characterized by two orthogonal patterns of southeasterly winds at 850 h Pa over the northwestern Pacific.The EASM phase-locked AMRE shows heavy rainfall events occurring extremely early and late in Beijing and surrounding areas,corresponding to the peak southeasterly wind anomalies in June and August.The EASM amplitude-locked AMRE exhibits extreme heavy or light rainfall over southwest areas with normal phase.Therefore,AMRE has a potential predictability on the seasonal time scale due to its phase-and amplitude-locking with the slow variation of the annual cycle of the EASM. 展开更多
关键词 annual maximum rainfall event North China phase-locking annual cycle East Asian summer monsoon interannual variability
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An Introduction to the Synthesis Community Integrated Model Version 2(SYCIM2.0)and Its Simulation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon 认领 引用
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作者 Wenjun LIANG Wenjie DONG +19 位作者 Danya XU Bin WANG Li LIU Yanli TANG Jie YANG Song WANG Fuhai DAO Duofan ZHENG Chenhao LI Fei LIU Shaobo QIAO Xian ZHU Kangyou ZHONG Siqi LI Lijuan LI Nan WEI Chiyue LIN Feng PAN Qingyang LI Hui HU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2025年第11期2203-2222,共20页
Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM... Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM2.0 aims to meet the demand for seamless climate prediction through accurate climate simulations and projections.This paper provides an overview of SYCIM2.0 and highlights its key features,especially the coupling of an unstructured ocean model and the tuning process.An extensive evaluation of its performance,focusing on the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM),is presented based on long-term simulations with fixed external forcing.The results suggest that after nearly 240 years of integration,SYCIM2.0 achieves a quasi-equilibrium state,albeit with small trends in the net radiation flux at the top-of-atmosphere(TOA)and Earth’s surface,as well as with global mean near-surface temperatures.Compared to observational and reanalysis data,the model realistically simulates spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST)and precipitation centers to include their annual cycles,in addition to the lower-level wind fields in the EASM region.However,it exhibits a weakened and eastward-shifted Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH),resulting in an associated precipitation bias.SYCIM2.0 robustly captures the dominant mode of the EASM and its close relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)but exhibits relatively poor performance in simulating the second leading mode and the associated air–sea interaction processes.Further comprehensive evaluations of SYCIM2.0 will be conducted in future studies. 展开更多
关键词 Climate System Model East Asian Summer Monsoon model evaluation unstructured grid ENSO
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Comparison of Monsoon Raindrop Size Distribution Between Inland and Coastal in South China 认领 引用
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作者 LAI Rui-ze HU Sheng +2 位作者 LIU Xian-tong XIAO Hui LI Hui-qi 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE CSCD 2025年第2期223-236,共14页
The raindrop size distribution(DSD) is a significant characteristic of precipitation physics,which plays a crucial role in improving the accuracy of radar quantitative precipitation estimation and prediction.There is ... The raindrop size distribution(DSD) is a significant characteristic of precipitation physics,which plays a crucial role in improving the accuracy of radar quantitative precipitation estimation and prediction.There is an effect of atmospheric circulation and weather sy stems in South China,with frequent precipitation and differences in regional features,resulting in a limited understanding of the DSD characteristics and their impact mechanisms in the region. In this study,six ground-based two-dimensional video di sdrometers(2DVDs) were used to analyze the DSD of inland and coastal in South China during the five-year(2016-2020) monsoon seasons(April to September),ERA5 reanalysis data and MODIS cloud property products were also used to investigate the dynamics and microphysical characteristics of monsoon precipitation.Compared to inland rainfall,coastal rainfall has a higher conentration of small,medium,and diameter of less than 4.7 mm large raindrops.Considering the contributions to precipitation,the inland and coastal rainfall are dominated by convective rain,accounting for 74.8% and 84.7% of the total rainfall,respectively.The coastal rainfall has a higher the mass-weiglited mean diameter(Dm) value than the inland rainfall Dm for both the stratiform and convective rainfall.The logarithmic mean of the generalized intercept parameter(log10Nw) in inland stratiform rain is greater than that in coastal areas,while convective rain is relatively small.Due to the impact of precipitation types and climate conditions,The Z-R relationship between inland and coastal rainfall also shows obvious differences.Compared to inland areas,there is more frequent convective activity,relatively moist near-surface conditions,and lower cloud droplet number concentrations,which contribute to larger Dm of raindrops in coastal areas.This study deepens the understanding of changes in South China's coastal and inland DSD and provides support for improving numerical weather forecasting in the region. 展开更多
关键词 raindrop size distribution monsoon rainfall regional variability South China
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