Amid accelerating population aging and the advent of the longevity era,the traditional insurance and healthcare industries confront a host of prominent practical challenges.These mainly manifest as fragmented service ...Amid accelerating population aging and the advent of the longevity era,the traditional insurance and healthcare industries confront a host of prominent practical challenges.These mainly manifest as fragmented service systems,structural supply-demand imbalance,sluggish operational efficiency,and insufficient synergy in industrial value chain allocation.Powered by core digital technologies such as big data,machine learning,and intelligent perception,artificial intelligence is comprehensively reshaping the whole-industry chain logic of value creation,value delivery,and value capture in the integrated insurance and healthcare sector.It has further served as a core endogenous driver for the iterative evolution of business models in the industry.From an interdisciplinary perspective,this paper innovatively proposes the Longevity,Health,and Pension Life Symbiosis Theory and further constructs a systematic theoretical framework characterized by three-dimensional participants,double-loop nesting,and full-domain AI empowerment.Adopting the benchmarking comparative research method,this paper selects three globally leading health and pension institutions including Nippon Life(Japan),Brookdale(the United States),and ORPEA(Emeis)(France),and explores the localized practices of Taikang Life in the Chinese mainland.This paper systematically summarizes the operational features and development experience of domestic and foreign benchmark enterprises,explores the internal mechanism and typical application scenarios of AI-enabled business model innovation in the longevity,health,and pension sector,identifies key bottlenecks restricting industrial development,and accordingly puts forward targeted optimization approaches and operational countermeasures.The research conclusions can not only provide practical references for China’s insurance industry to deepen the integrated development of the health care industry and realize high-quality development relying on digital technology,but also supplement original theoretical support for the improvement of the people’s livelihood guarantee system in the longevity society.展开更多
Pension fund must consider some significant issues when making renewable energy project investment decisions.It is necessary to determine the most important factors and prioritize the indicators.Accordingly,the purpos...Pension fund must consider some significant issues when making renewable energy project investment decisions.It is necessary to determine the most important factors and prioritize the indicators.Accordingly,the purpose of this study is to conduct a priority analysis of the determinants of investment in renewable energy projects by pension funds.This study constructs a novel fuzzy decision-making model.First,five indicators for this process are weighted using an entropy methodology based on sine trigonometric Pythagorean fuzzy sets.The CRITIC methodology is also considered to make a comparative evaluation.Second,five different clean energy investment alternatives for pension funds are ranked using the RATGOS methodology.Similarly,this ranking analysis is also made by considering TOPSIS technique to check the reliability of the results.The main contribution of this study is the creation of a new and comprehensive fuzzy decision-making model to identify the most important factors in renewable energy project investments for pension funds.The proposed model uses the RATGOS technique to rank clean energy investment alternatives for pension funds.By considering the geometrical mean in the RATGOS calculation process,criticisms related to existing ranking techniques can be overcome.The use of sine trigonometric Pythagorean fuzzy numbers provides significant benefits to the quality of the proposed decision-making model.The defuzzification process can be implemented appropriately using these sets.Therefore,this study’s findings pave the way for investors to make investment decisions under these circumstances.It is concluded that the most important criterion is risk minimization.Effective regulations are another critical issue.Furthermore,the ranking results indicate that the most suitable renewable energy alternative is green bonds.The comparative results with STPFY-TOPSIS show that the proposed model generates coherent and reliable findings.展开更多
This study assesses the portfolio concentration of socially responsible investment(SRI)pension funds,which may be subject to a potentially limited asset universe and have a higher concentration and lower performance t...This study assesses the portfolio concentration of socially responsible investment(SRI)pension funds,which may be subject to a potentially limited asset universe and have a higher concentration and lower performance than conventional funds.Nonetheless,in contrast to previous studies on SRI funds,this study considers the informationadvantage theory,positing that skilled managers should increase their concentration in assets in which they possess valuable information,departing from optimization models to achieve outperformance.This study first compares actual fund concentration with concentration obtained from several traditional and modern portfolio optimization techniques(minimum variance,global minimum variance,optimal portfolio,naïve diversification,risk parity,and reward-to-risk timing)to understand whether SRI pension funds concentrate portfolios and deviate from optimization model solutions.Unlike previous studies,the actual fund assets are considered in the optimization models to take into account the real investment profiles of SRI funds.The results indicate that SRI pension funds are less concentrated than conventional funds,and SRI and conventional pension funds largely diversify their portfolios,presenting lower concentration than portfolios formed with the optimization models.Furthermore,concentration strategies positively influence performance in SRI and conventional funds,revealing the use of information advantage.However,SRI and conventional fund managers present poor skills(picking,timing,and trading)to exploit information advantages due to overconfidence issues,which affect performance with concentration strategies.This situation may be modified if SRI funds follow modern optimization models and conventional funds follow traditional optimization models,improving managers’performance and skills.展开更多
In this paper,we investigate the optimal investment strategy for a target-return pension plan under a Wishart model using stochastic optimal control methods.We consider the fact that mortality and interest rates are a...In this paper,we investigate the optimal investment strategy for a target-return pension plan under a Wishart model using stochastic optimal control methods.We consider the fact that mortality and interest rates are affected by a combination of systematic and idiosyncratic factors,which are modelled by a Wishart model with positive values.On this basis,we analyse the correlation between stochastic mortality and stochastic wage rates for plan members,as well as wage movements and financial market volatility.It is shown that financial market parameters and wage rates have a significant impact on the optimal investment strategy.We provide the optimal investment strategy and the optimal yield adjustment strategy for target-return pensions.This study provides a valuable reference for policy formulation and implementation of target-return pension plans in China.展开更多
How do individuals adjust their savings and consumption behaviors in response to the combined effects of increased life expectancy and declining pension replacement rates?This study constructs a life-cycle model,using...How do individuals adjust their savings and consumption behaviors in response to the combined effects of increased life expectancy and declining pension replacement rates?This study constructs a life-cycle model,using changes in conditional survival probabilities as a proxy for shifts in individual life expectancy,to examine consumption behavior under the dual backdrop of prolonged longevity and a gradual decline in pension replacement rates.The results suggest that changes in life expectancy and pension replacement rates together explain 8.9%to 10.2%of the observed decline in consumption in recent years,with both variables playing equally significant explanatory roles.Furthermore,we find that,to fully offset the negative impact of increased life expectancy on consumption,the pension replacement rate must reach at least 82%.These findings offer theoretical and policy implications for improving the quality of life in later years among enterprise employees in the context of population aging.展开更多
This study examines the sustainability of China's pension funds in a context of negative population growth,analyzing how demographic shifts,economic fluctuations,and institutional flaws impact fund operations.The ...This study examines the sustainability of China's pension funds in a context of negative population growth,analyzing how demographic shifts,economic fluctuations,and institutional flaws impact fund operations.The research reveals that declining working-age populations and accelerating aging are causing imbalances in fund revenues and expenditures.Slower economic growth and inflation further erode contribution capacity and investment returns,while the drawbacks of the Pay-as-you-go system and provincial-level pooling models exacerbate regional risks.Pension funds face multiple challenges including revenue-expenditure imbalances,investment volatility,systemic design flaws,and population mobility-induced risks.The study proposes comprehensive optimization strategies encompassing population structure improvement,diversified funding channels,expenditure control,enhanced investment management,and institutional reforms.These measures aim to provide theoretical and practical references for addressing the sustainability challenges of pension funds under negative population growth.展开更多
Against the backdrop of uneven pressure on the three-pillar pension system and a mismatch between pension funds and the demographic structure,a large number of employees in new forms of employment remain outside the p...Against the backdrop of uneven pressure on the three-pillar pension system and a mismatch between pension funds and the demographic structure,a large number of employees in new forms of employment remain outside the pension security system,facing relatively high pension risks.Due to their high job mobility,weak long-term planning ability,and large income fluctuations,on the basis of maintaining the balance of the three-pillar pension system,individual pension schemes may become a breakthrough point for improving the pension situation of employees in new forms of employment.In line with the national goal of building a multi-level and multi-pillar old-age insurance system,to study the supplementary role of the third-pillar individual pension policy for employees in new forms of employment,this article constructs an evaluation system using the analytic hierarchy process and designs a questionnaire.After conducting a questionnaire survey in six cities in Shandong Province,the collected data are analyzed.It is found that the short-term effect of the current policy is that residents'awareness of pension issues is gradually improving,and the participation rate is increasing,but the behavior is short-term,and residents generally tend to avoid pension risks.Therefore,regarding the deepening of the individual pension system,the article puts forward three suggestions:(1)Conduct comprehensive publicity through multiple channels and with emphasis on key points;(2)Enhance the system's attractiveness according to the characteristics of the target population;(3)Improve the public's awareness of pension planning and financial literacy;(4)Strengthen the connection and transformation among different pillars of the pension system.展开更多
This paper takes Mr.Wang's family,a middle-and high-income household in a first-tier city,as a case study to explore the path of personal pension planning.It conducts a comparative analysis of the actuarial logic ...This paper takes Mr.Wang's family,a middle-and high-income household in a first-tier city,as a case study to explore the path of personal pension planning.It conducts a comparative analysis of the actuarial logic between the U.S.IRA system and China's third-pillar personal pension system.The findings indicate that China's personal pension system,characterized by inclusiveness and certainty,is suitable for taxpayers with a marginal tax rate higher than 3%.For Mr.Wang's family,the optimal strategy is to make the maximum annual contribution to the personal pension account,positioning such contributions as basic assets.Although these assets alone may not fully cover the family's entire pension needs,they can serve as a solid"safety cushion"for elderly care security.By combining this with other asset allocations,a multi-tiered pension security system can be established to achieve long-term financial security in retirement.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to study the influencing factors of flexible employment personnel's participation in urban-rural residents'pension insurance.After reading a large number of literature and research...The purpose of this paper is to study the influencing factors of flexible employment personnel's participation in urban-rural residents'pension insurance.After reading a large number of literature and research results on flexible employment personnel and analyzing and interpreting the urban-rural residents'pension insurance policy of Zhuhai,we take the flexible employment personnel of Zhuhai City as the object of the study,combined with questionnaire survey method,and analyze the difficulties of the flexible employment personnel's participation in the insurance by analyzing the collected data,and find out that Zhuhai's flexibly employed people have cognitive bias towards urban and rural residents'pension insurance,the government's business personnel have a vague understanding of the insurance,and some of the flexibly employed people think that the subsidy is low,etc.The government of Zhuhai City has provided the suggestions of expanding the scope of the publicity of the urban and rural residents'pension insurance,increasing publicity efforts,and providing regular training for the counterpart service personnel in order to increase the rate of the flexibly employed people's participation in the insurance,and improve the inherent bad impression of the insurance by the flexibly employed people.personnel's inherent bad impression of insurance,and further improve China's insurance system.展开更多
The development of a multi-pillar pension insurance system is an effective solution for an aging society.Commercial pension insurance,as the third pillar of pension insurance,is an integral part of this system in Chin...The development of a multi-pillar pension insurance system is an effective solution for an aging society.Commercial pension insurance,as the third pillar of pension insurance,is an integral part of this system in China and can play a critical and complementary role in rural areas where support for the elderly is a more pressing concern and a second pillar of pension insurance remains absent.To this end,we first elaborate on the theoretical logic that commercial pension insurance can develop into one of the pillars of rural pension insurance.We then empirically test rural residents’willingness to participate in a commercial pension insurance plan(CPIP)in a probit model with household research data from rural areas in major labor-exporting provinces,such as Sichuan and Henan so as to explore whether commercial pension insurance has the potential to become one of the pillars of rural pension insurance.Our research findings can be synthesized in three points.First,rural residents out of agricultural production for five consecutive years are more willing to participate in a CPIP than other rural residents,indicating that progress in industrialization and urbanization can significantly boost such willingness.Second,the younger rural residents are more inclined to participate in a CPIP than the older generation.Third,income increases can significantly boost rural residents’willingness to participate in a CPIP.Thus,with progress in industrialization and urbanization and an increase in rural disposable income,commercial pension insurance has a promising potential in rural areas and can hopefully develop into one of the pillars of rural pension insurance.展开更多
In social pension system, the pension replacement rate is one of the key parameters. It not only determines the welfare of retirees and the finance balance of social pension system, but also has an effect on economic ...In social pension system, the pension replacement rate is one of the key parameters. It not only determines the welfare of retirees and the finance balance of social pension system, but also has an effect on economic growth. This paper analyzes the effect of the pension replacement rate on economic growth with the standard overlapping generations' model, and suggests that the pension replacement rate should keep an appropriate level for economic growth and the development of the pension system.展开更多
With the improvement of the degree of aging,the traditional pension model can no longer meet the growing needs of the elderly.Therefore,it is necessary to use the intelligent means of information technology to improve...With the improvement of the degree of aging,the traditional pension model can no longer meet the growing needs of the elderly.Therefore,it is necessary to use the intelligent means of information technology to improve the level of pension services.This paper will integrate multi-sensor fusion technology,NB-IoT communication technology and cloud platform technology to develop and design a smart pension online monitoring system to realize real-time collection of human health and motion status information and realize monitoring platform management.In this system,STM32 microcontroller will be used as the main control module,and MAX30102,ADXL345 and DS18B20 sensors will be used to collect the heart rate,blood oxygen,displacement and body temperature of the human body in real time.On the one hand,the communication part is completed by the BC20 Internet of Things module.The data transmission between the terminal detection device and the cloud platform,on the other hand,the HC-42 Bluetooth module is used to complete the data communication with the mobile phone.The test results show that the system can collect and process data accurately in real time and maintain good communication with the cloud platform and mobile phone.The designed system has strong pertinence,easy operation,high reliability and broad development prospects.展开更多
Nowadays,the disparity of the basic pension in local regions of China can be described as follows:the low level of the unification of the basic pension systems,the large disparity of the level of the basic pension,and...Nowadays,the disparity of the basic pension in local regions of China can be described as follows:the low level of the unification of the basic pension systems,the large disparity of the level of the basic pension,and unfairness of the enterprises’payment for the basic pension in different local regions in China.These have already brought many negative influences,which have greatly held back the development of the society and national economy.We should build the basic pension system in all local regions of China as a whole,which can cover all people and decrease the disparity in different local regions in China.展开更多
From the perspective of dealing with the aging of the population, this paper conducts a more in-depth study on thereform and innovation of Singapore’s central provident fund pension system (CPFPS). The study conclude...From the perspective of dealing with the aging of the population, this paper conducts a more in-depth study on thereform and innovation of Singapore’s central provident fund pension system (CPFPS). The study concluded that: Inthe face of the aging population, Singapore continues to reform the CPFPS. Singapore established and improved amulti-pillar pension system, with the CPFPS as the main pillar, the Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS), theWorkfare Income Supplement Scheme (WISS) and the Housing Pension System (HPS) as the supplementarypillar. The reform and innovation of the CPFPS not only improved and enriched the pension system model, but alsoenhanced the sustainability of the pension system. The CPFPS has been combined with such social and economicpolicies as the SRS, WISS and HPS, thus realizing the diversification of pension accumulation, enhancing theadequacy of pension, and better coping with the aging population. Singapore’s practice of reforming and innovatingthe CPFPS in response to the aging population has certain reference and inspiration for the reform and innovationof pension system in China and other countries in the world.展开更多
Based on the reality that 29 Chinese provinces have already implemented the policy allowing a couple to raise a second child if either parent is an only child, this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of t...Based on the reality that 29 Chinese provinces have already implemented the policy allowing a couple to raise a second child if either parent is an only child, this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of this policy on the financial status of the social pooling fund of basic pension insurance for urban employees. Our study suggests the followings. First, under the previous unchanged family planning policy, current deficits and cumulative deficits will occur in the social pooling fund in the year 2047 and 2063 respectively. Second, if lO% to 50% of qualified couples choose to raise a second child, the financial status of the social pooling fund will improve; relative to the previous unchanged family planning policy, the contribution ratio can decrease from 20% to the range between 18.06% and 19.57% without causing any changes to the original financial status of income and expenditure. Third, if the percentage of couples choosing to raise a second child rises to 60% to 100%, the contribution ratio can even decrease to the range between 16.55% and 17. 7% without causing any changes to the financial status as under the previous unchanged family planning policy. The above conclusions have all passed the sensitivity test. Therefore, the "two-child policy" for qualified couples is favorable to alleviating the payment pressures of pension insurance but the policy effectiveness is subject to fertility desire and the intensity of government implementation.展开更多
Pension funds remain scarce no matter what institutional design is adopted. China has a host of unique issues facing its pension system,issues that must be confronted; for instance,the disappearance of its demographic...Pension funds remain scarce no matter what institutional design is adopted. China has a host of unique issues facing its pension system,issues that must be confronted; for instance,the disappearance of its demographic dividends and legacy costs incurred due to institutional transition. Such features determine that China’s pension system is merely passable at the present time. In this article,Professor Cai Fang offers new and incisive perspectives on this issue,such as the potential stimulus for economic growth by ageing people’s desire to save money for old-age provisions.展开更多
In this paper, we study the optimal investment strategy of defined-contribution pension with the stochastic salary. The investor is allowed to invest in a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price process follows ...In this paper, we study the optimal investment strategy of defined-contribution pension with the stochastic salary. The investor is allowed to invest in a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price process follows a constant elasticity of variance model. The stochastic salary follows a stochastic differential equation, whose instantaneous volatility changes with the risky asset price all the time. The HJB equation associated with the optimal investment problem is established, and the explicit solution of the corresponding optimization problem for the CARA utility function is obtained by applying power transform and variable change technique. Finally, we present a numerical analysis.展开更多
This work focuses on the optimization of investment contributions of pension asset with a view to improving contributors’ participation in achieving better return on investment (RoI) of their funds. We viewed some ne...This work focuses on the optimization of investment contributions of pension asset with a view to improving contributors’ participation in achieving better return on investment (RoI) of their funds. We viewed some new regulations on Nigeria’s Contributory Pension Scheme” (CPS) from amended legislation of 2014, some of which are yet to be implemented when their regulations are approved. A mathematical model involving 5 variables, 5 inequality constraints covering regulatory limitations and limitation on scarce resource known as Asset Under Management (AUM), suggested and mathematically shown to be possible through “maximization of return irrespective of risk” while obeying all regulatory controls as our constraints optimized. Optimized portfolio using MatLab shows that the portfolio representing AES 2013 portfolio with a deficit growth of 15.75 m representing 3.27% less than the portfolio’s full growth potential within defined assumptions would have been averted if contributors actually set their targets and investment managers optimize from forecasts of future prices using trend analysis.展开更多
In this paper, we construct a general model for a pension fund when there are time delays in the valuation process. Actually, we use the standard structure of the basic reserve equation in order to rebuild a more soph...In this paper, we construct a general model for a pension fund when there are time delays in the valuation process. Actually, we use the standard structure of the basic reserve equation in order to rebuild a more sophisticated approach based on the theory of H∞ control. Our model evaluates the incomplete information from the delayed fund valuations—due to the oscillatory pattern for benefit claims and investment experience of the past years—within the context of uncertainty additionally to the randomness which certainly exists. So, we construct estimations for the optimal proposed contribution rates based on a feedback mechanism which is a robust stabilization controller, using typical linear matrix inequalities. Finally, a numerical application is fully investigated to obtain further insight into the problem.展开更多
This paper mainly studies the optimal investment problem of defined contribution(DC)pension under the self-protection and minimum security.First,we apply Ito?theorem to obtain the differential equation of the real sto...This paper mainly studies the optimal investment problem of defined contribution(DC)pension under the self-protection and minimum security.First,we apply Ito?theorem to obtain the differential equation of the real stock price after discounting inflation.Then,under the constraint of external guarantee of DC pension terminal wealth,self-protection is introduced to study the maximization of the expected utility of terminal wealth at retirement time and any time before retirement.The explicit solution of the optimal investment strategy of DC pension at retirement time and any time before retirement should be derived by martingale method.Finally,the influence of selfprotection on the optimal investment strategy of DC pension is numerically analyzed.展开更多
摘要Amid accelerating population aging and the advent of the longevity era,the traditional insurance and healthcare industries confront a host of prominent practical challenges.These mainly manifest as fragmented service systems,structural supply-demand imbalance,sluggish operational efficiency,and insufficient synergy in industrial value chain allocation.Powered by core digital technologies such as big data,machine learning,and intelligent perception,artificial intelligence is comprehensively reshaping the whole-industry chain logic of value creation,value delivery,and value capture in the integrated insurance and healthcare sector.It has further served as a core endogenous driver for the iterative evolution of business models in the industry.From an interdisciplinary perspective,this paper innovatively proposes the Longevity,Health,and Pension Life Symbiosis Theory and further constructs a systematic theoretical framework characterized by three-dimensional participants,double-loop nesting,and full-domain AI empowerment.Adopting the benchmarking comparative research method,this paper selects three globally leading health and pension institutions including Nippon Life(Japan),Brookdale(the United States),and ORPEA(Emeis)(France),and explores the localized practices of Taikang Life in the Chinese mainland.This paper systematically summarizes the operational features and development experience of domestic and foreign benchmark enterprises,explores the internal mechanism and typical application scenarios of AI-enabled business model innovation in the longevity,health,and pension sector,identifies key bottlenecks restricting industrial development,and accordingly puts forward targeted optimization approaches and operational countermeasures.The research conclusions can not only provide practical references for China’s insurance industry to deepen the integrated development of the health care industry and realize high-quality development relying on digital technology,but also supplement original theoretical support for the improvement of the people’s livelihood guarantee system in the longevity society.
摘要Pension fund must consider some significant issues when making renewable energy project investment decisions.It is necessary to determine the most important factors and prioritize the indicators.Accordingly,the purpose of this study is to conduct a priority analysis of the determinants of investment in renewable energy projects by pension funds.This study constructs a novel fuzzy decision-making model.First,five indicators for this process are weighted using an entropy methodology based on sine trigonometric Pythagorean fuzzy sets.The CRITIC methodology is also considered to make a comparative evaluation.Second,five different clean energy investment alternatives for pension funds are ranked using the RATGOS methodology.Similarly,this ranking analysis is also made by considering TOPSIS technique to check the reliability of the results.The main contribution of this study is the creation of a new and comprehensive fuzzy decision-making model to identify the most important factors in renewable energy project investments for pension funds.The proposed model uses the RATGOS technique to rank clean energy investment alternatives for pension funds.By considering the geometrical mean in the RATGOS calculation process,criticisms related to existing ranking techniques can be overcome.The use of sine trigonometric Pythagorean fuzzy numbers provides significant benefits to the quality of the proposed decision-making model.The defuzzification process can be implemented appropriately using these sets.Therefore,this study’s findings pave the way for investors to make investment decisions under these circumstances.It is concluded that the most important criterion is risk minimization.Effective regulations are another critical issue.Furthermore,the ranking results indicate that the most suitable renewable energy alternative is green bonds.The comparative results with STPFY-TOPSIS show that the proposed model generates coherent and reliable findings.
基金supported by Government of Aragon[Grant S38_20R]Ibercaja and University of Zaragoza[Grants JIUZ-2021-SOC-03 and JIUZ2022-CSJ-24]Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER[PID2022-136818NB-100].
摘要This study assesses the portfolio concentration of socially responsible investment(SRI)pension funds,which may be subject to a potentially limited asset universe and have a higher concentration and lower performance than conventional funds.Nonetheless,in contrast to previous studies on SRI funds,this study considers the informationadvantage theory,positing that skilled managers should increase their concentration in assets in which they possess valuable information,departing from optimization models to achieve outperformance.This study first compares actual fund concentration with concentration obtained from several traditional and modern portfolio optimization techniques(minimum variance,global minimum variance,optimal portfolio,naïve diversification,risk parity,and reward-to-risk timing)to understand whether SRI pension funds concentrate portfolios and deviate from optimization model solutions.Unlike previous studies,the actual fund assets are considered in the optimization models to take into account the real investment profiles of SRI funds.The results indicate that SRI pension funds are less concentrated than conventional funds,and SRI and conventional pension funds largely diversify their portfolios,presenting lower concentration than portfolios formed with the optimization models.Furthermore,concentration strategies positively influence performance in SRI and conventional funds,revealing the use of information advantage.However,SRI and conventional fund managers present poor skills(picking,timing,and trading)to exploit information advantages due to overconfidence issues,which affect performance with concentration strategies.This situation may be modified if SRI funds follow modern optimization models and conventional funds follow traditional optimization models,improving managers’performance and skills.
基金Supported by the Anhui Province Higher Education Scientific Research Project(2024AH050643)。
摘要In this paper,we investigate the optimal investment strategy for a target-return pension plan under a Wishart model using stochastic optimal control methods.We consider the fact that mortality and interest rates are affected by a combination of systematic and idiosyncratic factors,which are modelled by a Wishart model with positive values.On this basis,we analyse the correlation between stochastic mortality and stochastic wage rates for plan members,as well as wage movements and financial market volatility.It is shown that financial market parameters and wage rates have a significant impact on the optimal investment strategy.We provide the optimal investment strategy and the optimal yield adjustment strategy for target-return pensions.This study provides a valuable reference for policy formulation and implementation of target-return pension plans in China.
摘要How do individuals adjust their savings and consumption behaviors in response to the combined effects of increased life expectancy and declining pension replacement rates?This study constructs a life-cycle model,using changes in conditional survival probabilities as a proxy for shifts in individual life expectancy,to examine consumption behavior under the dual backdrop of prolonged longevity and a gradual decline in pension replacement rates.The results suggest that changes in life expectancy and pension replacement rates together explain 8.9%to 10.2%of the observed decline in consumption in recent years,with both variables playing equally significant explanatory roles.Furthermore,we find that,to fully offset the negative impact of increased life expectancy on consumption,the pension replacement rate must reach at least 82%.These findings offer theoretical and policy implications for improving the quality of life in later years among enterprise employees in the context of population aging.
摘要This study examines the sustainability of China's pension funds in a context of negative population growth,analyzing how demographic shifts,economic fluctuations,and institutional flaws impact fund operations.The research reveals that declining working-age populations and accelerating aging are causing imbalances in fund revenues and expenditures.Slower economic growth and inflation further erode contribution capacity and investment returns,while the drawbacks of the Pay-as-you-go system and provincial-level pooling models exacerbate regional risks.Pension funds face multiple challenges including revenue-expenditure imbalances,investment volatility,systemic design flaws,and population mobility-induced risks.The study proposes comprehensive optimization strategies encompassing population structure improvement,diversified funding channels,expenditure control,enhanced investment management,and institutional reforms.These measures aim to provide theoretical and practical references for addressing the sustainability challenges of pension funds under negative population growth.
基金funded by the National College Students'Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program(No.202410456025)supported by the China Center of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts and the Hong Kong Institute of Humanities and Natural Sciences and Technology.
摘要Against the backdrop of uneven pressure on the three-pillar pension system and a mismatch between pension funds and the demographic structure,a large number of employees in new forms of employment remain outside the pension security system,facing relatively high pension risks.Due to their high job mobility,weak long-term planning ability,and large income fluctuations,on the basis of maintaining the balance of the three-pillar pension system,individual pension schemes may become a breakthrough point for improving the pension situation of employees in new forms of employment.In line with the national goal of building a multi-level and multi-pillar old-age insurance system,to study the supplementary role of the third-pillar individual pension policy for employees in new forms of employment,this article constructs an evaluation system using the analytic hierarchy process and designs a questionnaire.After conducting a questionnaire survey in six cities in Shandong Province,the collected data are analyzed.It is found that the short-term effect of the current policy is that residents'awareness of pension issues is gradually improving,and the participation rate is increasing,but the behavior is short-term,and residents generally tend to avoid pension risks.Therefore,regarding the deepening of the individual pension system,the article puts forward three suggestions:(1)Conduct comprehensive publicity through multiple channels and with emphasis on key points;(2)Enhance the system's attractiveness according to the characteristics of the target population;(3)Improve the public's awareness of pension planning and financial literacy;(4)Strengthen the connection and transformation among different pillars of the pension system.
摘要This paper takes Mr.Wang's family,a middle-and high-income household in a first-tier city,as a case study to explore the path of personal pension planning.It conducts a comparative analysis of the actuarial logic between the U.S.IRA system and China's third-pillar personal pension system.The findings indicate that China's personal pension system,characterized by inclusiveness and certainty,is suitable for taxpayers with a marginal tax rate higher than 3%.For Mr.Wang's family,the optimal strategy is to make the maximum annual contribution to the personal pension account,positioning such contributions as basic assets.Although these assets alone may not fully cover the family's entire pension needs,they can serve as a solid"safety cushion"for elderly care security.By combining this with other asset allocations,a multi-tiered pension security system can be established to achieve long-term financial security in retirement.
摘要The purpose of this paper is to study the influencing factors of flexible employment personnel's participation in urban-rural residents'pension insurance.After reading a large number of literature and research results on flexible employment personnel and analyzing and interpreting the urban-rural residents'pension insurance policy of Zhuhai,we take the flexible employment personnel of Zhuhai City as the object of the study,combined with questionnaire survey method,and analyze the difficulties of the flexible employment personnel's participation in the insurance by analyzing the collected data,and find out that Zhuhai's flexibly employed people have cognitive bias towards urban and rural residents'pension insurance,the government's business personnel have a vague understanding of the insurance,and some of the flexibly employed people think that the subsidy is low,etc.The government of Zhuhai City has provided the suggestions of expanding the scope of the publicity of the urban and rural residents'pension insurance,increasing publicity efforts,and providing regular training for the counterpart service personnel in order to increase the rate of the flexibly employed people's participation in the insurance,and improve the inherent bad impression of the insurance by the flexibly employed people.personnel's inherent bad impression of insurance,and further improve China's insurance system.
基金part of“Research in the Return of Migrant Workers to Major Labor Exporting Provinces and Corresponding Allocation of Old Age Support Resources in Rural Areas”(16BSH132)a program funded by the National Social Science Fund of China(NSSFC)“Research in the Path to,and Measures for,High-Quality Rural Development Driven by Entrepreneurial Agglomeration from the Perspective of Triple Coupling”(22FH54)。
摘要The development of a multi-pillar pension insurance system is an effective solution for an aging society.Commercial pension insurance,as the third pillar of pension insurance,is an integral part of this system in China and can play a critical and complementary role in rural areas where support for the elderly is a more pressing concern and a second pillar of pension insurance remains absent.To this end,we first elaborate on the theoretical logic that commercial pension insurance can develop into one of the pillars of rural pension insurance.We then empirically test rural residents’willingness to participate in a commercial pension insurance plan(CPIP)in a probit model with household research data from rural areas in major labor-exporting provinces,such as Sichuan and Henan so as to explore whether commercial pension insurance has the potential to become one of the pillars of rural pension insurance.Our research findings can be synthesized in three points.First,rural residents out of agricultural production for five consecutive years are more willing to participate in a CPIP than other rural residents,indicating that progress in industrialization and urbanization can significantly boost such willingness.Second,the younger rural residents are more inclined to participate in a CPIP than the older generation.Third,income increases can significantly boost rural residents’willingness to participate in a CPIP.Thus,with progress in industrialization and urbanization and an increase in rural disposable income,commercial pension insurance has a promising potential in rural areas and can hopefully develop into one of the pillars of rural pension insurance.
摘要In social pension system, the pension replacement rate is one of the key parameters. It not only determines the welfare of retirees and the finance balance of social pension system, but also has an effect on economic growth. This paper analyzes the effect of the pension replacement rate on economic growth with the standard overlapping generations' model, and suggests that the pension replacement rate should keep an appropriate level for economic growth and the development of the pension system.
基金supported by Jiangsu Provincial Natural Science Fund(BK20150247)the Fundamental Research Funds for Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(XSJCX22_36,XSJCX22_44,SJCX22_1479)
摘要With the improvement of the degree of aging,the traditional pension model can no longer meet the growing needs of the elderly.Therefore,it is necessary to use the intelligent means of information technology to improve the level of pension services.This paper will integrate multi-sensor fusion technology,NB-IoT communication technology and cloud platform technology to develop and design a smart pension online monitoring system to realize real-time collection of human health and motion status information and realize monitoring platform management.In this system,STM32 microcontroller will be used as the main control module,and MAX30102,ADXL345 and DS18B20 sensors will be used to collect the heart rate,blood oxygen,displacement and body temperature of the human body in real time.On the one hand,the communication part is completed by the BC20 Internet of Things module.The data transmission between the terminal detection device and the cloud platform,on the other hand,the HC-42 Bluetooth module is used to complete the data communication with the mobile phone.The test results show that the system can collect and process data accurately in real time and maintain good communication with the cloud platform and mobile phone.The designed system has strong pertinence,easy operation,high reliability and broad development prospects.
摘要Nowadays,the disparity of the basic pension in local regions of China can be described as follows:the low level of the unification of the basic pension systems,the large disparity of the level of the basic pension,and unfairness of the enterprises’payment for the basic pension in different local regions in China.These have already brought many negative influences,which have greatly held back the development of the society and national economy.We should build the basic pension system in all local regions of China as a whole,which can cover all people and decrease the disparity in different local regions in China.
摘要From the perspective of dealing with the aging of the population, this paper conducts a more in-depth study on thereform and innovation of Singapore’s central provident fund pension system (CPFPS). The study concluded that: Inthe face of the aging population, Singapore continues to reform the CPFPS. Singapore established and improved amulti-pillar pension system, with the CPFPS as the main pillar, the Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS), theWorkfare Income Supplement Scheme (WISS) and the Housing Pension System (HPS) as the supplementarypillar. The reform and innovation of the CPFPS not only improved and enriched the pension system model, but alsoenhanced the sustainability of the pension system. The CPFPS has been combined with such social and economicpolicies as the SRS, WISS and HPS, thus realizing the diversification of pension accumulation, enhancing theadequacy of pension, and better coping with the aging population. Singapore’s practice of reforming and innovatingthe CPFPS in response to the aging population has certain reference and inspiration for the reform and innovationof pension system in China and other countries in the world.
基金sponsored by the National Social Sciences Foundation Program,An Evaluation of the Impact of China’s Family Planning Policy Adjustment on the Sustainability of the Social Security Fund and A Study of the Relevant Countermeasures(Grant No.15XRK005,chaired by:Zeng Yi)
摘要Based on the reality that 29 Chinese provinces have already implemented the policy allowing a couple to raise a second child if either parent is an only child, this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of this policy on the financial status of the social pooling fund of basic pension insurance for urban employees. Our study suggests the followings. First, under the previous unchanged family planning policy, current deficits and cumulative deficits will occur in the social pooling fund in the year 2047 and 2063 respectively. Second, if lO% to 50% of qualified couples choose to raise a second child, the financial status of the social pooling fund will improve; relative to the previous unchanged family planning policy, the contribution ratio can decrease from 20% to the range between 18.06% and 19.57% without causing any changes to the original financial status of income and expenditure. Third, if the percentage of couples choosing to raise a second child rises to 60% to 100%, the contribution ratio can even decrease to the range between 16.55% and 17. 7% without causing any changes to the financial status as under the previous unchanged family planning policy. The above conclusions have all passed the sensitivity test. Therefore, the "two-child policy" for qualified couples is favorable to alleviating the payment pressures of pension insurance but the policy effectiveness is subject to fertility desire and the intensity of government implementation.
摘要Pension funds remain scarce no matter what institutional design is adopted. China has a host of unique issues facing its pension system,issues that must be confronted; for instance,the disappearance of its demographic dividends and legacy costs incurred due to institutional transition. Such features determine that China’s pension system is merely passable at the present time. In this article,Professor Cai Fang offers new and incisive perspectives on this issue,such as the potential stimulus for economic growth by ageing people’s desire to save money for old-age provisions.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin (07JCYBJC05200)the Young Scholar Program of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics (TJYQ201201)
摘要In this paper, we study the optimal investment strategy of defined-contribution pension with the stochastic salary. The investor is allowed to invest in a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price process follows a constant elasticity of variance model. The stochastic salary follows a stochastic differential equation, whose instantaneous volatility changes with the risky asset price all the time. The HJB equation associated with the optimal investment problem is established, and the explicit solution of the corresponding optimization problem for the CARA utility function is obtained by applying power transform and variable change technique. Finally, we present a numerical analysis.
摘要This work focuses on the optimization of investment contributions of pension asset with a view to improving contributors’ participation in achieving better return on investment (RoI) of their funds. We viewed some new regulations on Nigeria’s Contributory Pension Scheme” (CPS) from amended legislation of 2014, some of which are yet to be implemented when their regulations are approved. A mathematical model involving 5 variables, 5 inequality constraints covering regulatory limitations and limitation on scarce resource known as Asset Under Management (AUM), suggested and mathematically shown to be possible through “maximization of return irrespective of risk” while obeying all regulatory controls as our constraints optimized. Optimized portfolio using MatLab shows that the portfolio representing AES 2013 portfolio with a deficit growth of 15.75 m representing 3.27% less than the portfolio’s full growth potential within defined assumptions would have been averted if contributors actually set their targets and investment managers optimize from forecasts of future prices using trend analysis.
摘要In this paper, we construct a general model for a pension fund when there are time delays in the valuation process. Actually, we use the standard structure of the basic reserve equation in order to rebuild a more sophisticated approach based on the theory of H∞ control. Our model evaluates the incomplete information from the delayed fund valuations—due to the oscillatory pattern for benefit claims and investment experience of the past years—within the context of uncertainty additionally to the randomness which certainly exists. So, we construct estimations for the optimal proposed contribution rates based on a feedback mechanism which is a robust stabilization controller, using typical linear matrix inequalities. Finally, a numerical application is fully investigated to obtain further insight into the problem.
基金Supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China(20BTJ048)Anhui University Humanities and Social Science Research Major Project(SK2021ZD0043)。
摘要This paper mainly studies the optimal investment problem of defined contribution(DC)pension under the self-protection and minimum security.First,we apply Ito?theorem to obtain the differential equation of the real stock price after discounting inflation.Then,under the constraint of external guarantee of DC pension terminal wealth,self-protection is introduced to study the maximization of the expected utility of terminal wealth at retirement time and any time before retirement.The explicit solution of the optimal investment strategy of DC pension at retirement time and any time before retirement should be derived by martingale method.Finally,the influence of selfprotection on the optimal investment strategy of DC pension is numerically analyzed.