The precise modeling of strong nonlinear transient evolution in nonlinear dynamical systems,including soliton evolution,remains a long-term challenge.Deep learning models with powerful nonlinear fitting capabilities h...The precise modeling of strong nonlinear transient evolution in nonlinear dynamical systems,including soliton evolution,remains a long-term challenge.Deep learning models with powerful nonlinear fitting capabilities have become efficient tools for physical system modeling.However,existing initialization methods rely on statistical distribution assumptions and lack constraints from physical mechanisms,which easily lead to suboptimal solutions and severely limit model prediction accuracy and generalization.Based on the energy minimization principle of physical systems,this work proposes energy-based initialization(EBI).This method requires only prior structural knowledge of the physical system as input,without experimental data or architecture customization,to guide initial weights to align with the intrinsic dynamical structure of physical systems.The work further derives an upper bound on the distance between EBI initial weights and optimal weights for downstream tasks,and proves that its performance advantage increases monotonically with the expansion of model parameter scale.Validation across four typical physical scenarios shows that EBI outperforms classical initialization schemes across all metrics,while initialization for a model with 4.7 million parameters takes less than 5 minutes.This work fills the gap of specialized initialization methods in AI for physics,provides efficient support for tasks such as transient prediction of optical fiber laser and inverse sensing of laser structures,and is expected to open new directions for interdisciplinary research between artificial intelligence and physics.展开更多
The chemical composition in a cross section of a high grade pipeline slab was measured point by point (in a scale of 1 μm) using original position statistic distribution analysis (OPA). The result indicated that ...The chemical composition in a cross section of a high grade pipeline slab was measured point by point (in a scale of 1 μm) using original position statistic distribution analysis (OPA). The result indicated that negative segregation strips of Si, Mn, Mo, Ni, Cr, Nb, Cu, Ti, and V exist in the two sides 24 mm away from the central line, with a width of 8-12 mm, Negative segregation inside the central line is more severe than that outside the central line, and the highest positive segregation of the elements appears closely by the inner sides of the negative segregation strips. No obvious negative segregation strip of S and P is found. Segregation of the elements in the central area is higher than that in the outer and inner arc areas. The segregation of C, Ti, S, and P is high and that of Cr, Cu, Si, and Mn is low in the slab.展开更多
Although the complex Wishart distribution has been widely used to analyze the statistic properties of quad-pol SAR spatial data, the applicability of this complex distribution to the time series of sea clutter is rare...Although the complex Wishart distribution has been widely used to analyze the statistic properties of quad-pol SAR spatial data, the applicability of this complex distribution to the time series of sea clutter is rarely discussed.The measured data of the quad-pol X-band marine radar demonstrate that the time series of the sea echoes are also satisfied the circular Gaussian distributions if the low intensity signals, which are mainly dominated by a radar noise, in the shadow regions of the large-scale waves are removed. On the basis of this fact, the probability density functions(PDFs) of the intensity as well as the phase, the real and the imaginary parts of the sea echoes obtained by the marine radar have been derived, and the theoretical models are all expressed in closed forms. In order to validate the theoretical results, the PDFs are compared with the experimental data collected by the Mc Master IPIX radar. And the comparisons show that the PDF models are in good agreement with the experimental data.展开更多
The hazard caused by the fragments of damaged structures is usually significant in acci-dental explosions or hostile blast events.A reliable and efficient method to estimate probable fragment size,velocity and launch ...The hazard caused by the fragments of damaged structures is usually significant in acci-dental explosions or hostile blast events.A reliable and efficient method to estimate probable fragment size,velocity and launch distance will be useful to assess and design countermeasures to mitigate the possible fragment hazards.This paper presents a numerical method for predicting the size and launch distance of the fragments caused by explosive damage of masonry wall.Numerical simulations with different scaled distances are carried out,and the statistical distribution functions of the fragment size and launch distance in terms of the scaled distance are derived.展开更多
The random telegraph signal noise in the pixel source follower MOSFET is the principle component of the noise in the CMOS image sensor under low light. In this paper, the physical and statistical model of the random t...The random telegraph signal noise in the pixel source follower MOSFET is the principle component of the noise in the CMOS image sensor under low light. In this paper, the physical and statistical model of the random telegraph signal noise in the pixel source follower based on the binomial distribution is set up. The number of electrons captured or released by the oxide traps in the unit time is described as the random variables which obey the binomial distribution. As a result,the output states and the corresponding probabilities of the first and the second samples of the correlated double sampling circuit are acquired. The standard deviation of the output states after the correlated double sampling circuit can be obtained accordingly. In the simulation section, one hundred thousand samples of the source follower MOSFET have been simulated,and the simulation results show that the proposed model has the similar statistical characteristics with the existing models under the effect of the channel length and the density of the oxide trap. Moreover, the noise histogram of the proposed model has been evaluated at different environmental temperatures.展开更多
The maximum entropy principle(MEP) is one of the first methods which have been used to predict droplet size and velocity distributions of liquid sprays. This method needs a mean droplets diameter as an input to predic...The maximum entropy principle(MEP) is one of the first methods which have been used to predict droplet size and velocity distributions of liquid sprays. This method needs a mean droplets diameter as an input to predict the droplet size distribution. This paper presents a new sub-model based on the deterministic aspects of liquid atomization process independent of the experimental data to provide the mean droplets diameter for using in the maximum entropy formulation(MEF). For this purpose, a theoretical model based on the approach of energy conservation law entitled energy-based model(EBM) is presented. Based on this approach, atomization occurs due to the kinetic energy loss. Prediction of the combined model(MEF/EBM) is in good agreement with the available experimental data. The energy-based model can be used as a fast and reliable enough model to obtain a good estimation of the mean droplets diameter of a spray and the combined model(MEF/EBM) can be used to well predict the droplet size distribution at the primary breakup.展开更多
A method for packing irregular particles with a prescribed volume fraction is proposed.Furthermore,the generated granular material adheres to the prescribed statistical distribution and satisfies the desired complex s...A method for packing irregular particles with a prescribed volume fraction is proposed.Furthermore,the generated granular material adheres to the prescribed statistical distribution and satisfies the desired complex spatial arrangement.First,the irregular geometries of the realistic particles were obtained from the original particle images.Second,the Minkowski sum was used to check the overlap between irregular particles and place an irregular particle in contact with other particles.Third,the optimised advance front method(OAFM)generated irregular particle packing with the prescribed statistical dis-tribution and volume fraction based on the Minkowski sum.Moreover,the signed distance function was introduced to pack the particles in accordance with the desired spatial arrangement.Finally,seven biaxial tests were performed using the UDEC software,which demonstrated the accuracy and potential usefulness of the proposed method.It can model granular material efficiently and reflect the meso-structural characteristics of complex granular materials.This method has a wide range of applications where discrete modelling of granular media is necessary.展开更多
The statistical distribution of wavelength is directly derived from a two-dimensional and spatially homogeneous Gaussian wave field. The present result differs from both the result of Rayleigh distribution and Sun'...The statistical distribution of wavelength is directly derived from a two-dimensional and spatially homogeneous Gaussian wave field. The present result differs from both the result of Rayleigh distribution and Sun's result (1988b) which is transformed through the period distribution derived from a two-dimensional and stationary Gaussian wave field. A laboratory experiment shows that the present result is more consistent with the observations in the wave tank than the others.展开更多
We are very grateful for the letter written by Dr Lange,and indeed apologize for the mistakes noted in the word-ing of our text regarding statistical analysis.This wasdue to changes carried out while revising the manu...We are very grateful for the letter written by Dr Lange,and indeed apologize for the mistakes noted in the word-ing of our text regarding statistical analysis.This wasdue to changes carried out while revising the manuscriptat the request of reviewers,whom we thank for,point-ing out several issues that were actually similar to thosenoted by Dr.Lange.Unfortunately,we were unable todescribe and discuss our findings properly in the context展开更多
This study deals with the development of statistical modeling for water wave surface elevation by using a method that combines a dynamic solution with random process statistics. Ocean wave data taken from four NOAA (...This study deals with the development of statistical modeling for water wave surface elevation by using a method that combines a dynamic solution with random process statistics. Ocean wave data taken from four NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) buoys moored in the northeast Pacific were used to validate the model. The results indicated that the nonlinear probability density distribution of ocean wave surface elevation derived from the model described the measurements much better than Gaussian distribution and Longuet-Higgins distribution.展开更多
In order to research possible influences of the adjustment of plant distribution on the development frequency of thunderstorms over the Leizhou Peninsula, mathematic statistic methods, including correlation analyses, ...In order to research possible influences of the adjustment of plant distribution on the development frequency of thunderstorms over the Leizhou Peninsula, mathematic statistic methods, including correlation analyses, 11 kinds of fitting models and all-variable regression methods, were used for analyses and research. The results show that the average trend of the number of annual thunderstorm days is descending obviously, and there are thunderstorms in all seasons, in which warm post-midday thunderstorms have taken up the most part, and high frequency is found from May to September, and the starting and ending dates of thunderstorms have a great annual discrepancy. The vegetation structure has been improved along with the reduction of rice fields and the area increment of sugarcane and fruits planting, which results in the decrease of the number of thunderstorm days; the change in the characteristics of winter spare fields, which is caused by the planting of vegetables, limits the formation of thunderstorms in early winter and late spring. Meanwhile, the area adjustment of peanut planting has little influence on the variation of thunderstorm days. The adjustment of principal crop distribution, such as rice, sugarcane, fruits and vegetables, may have obvious influence on the formation of thunderstorms, and sugarcane has the largest effect, followed in turn by rice, vegetables and fruits, and the adjustment of crop distribution has little influence on the starting and ending dates of thunderstorms.展开更多
Objective To estimate the frequency of daily average PM10 concentrations exceeding the air quality standard (AQS) and the reduction of particulate matter emission to meet the AQS from the statistical properties (pr...Objective To estimate the frequency of daily average PM10 concentrations exceeding the air quality standard (AQS) and the reduction of particulate matter emission to meet the AQS from the statistical properties (probability density functions) of air pollutant concentration. Methods The daily PM10 average concentration in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Xi'an was measured from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2008. The PM10 concentration distribution was simulated by using the Iognormal, Weibull and Gamma distributions and the best statistical distribution of PM10 concentration in the 5 cities was detected using to the maximum likelihood method. Results The daily PM10 average concentration in the 5 cities was fitted using the Iognormal distribution. The exceeding duration was predicted, and the estimated PMlo emission source reductions in the 5 cities need to be 56.58%, 93.40%, 80.17%, 82.40%, and 79.80%, respectively to meet the AO, S. Conclusion Air pollutant concentration can be predicted by using the PM10 concentration distribution, which can be further applied in air quality management and related policy making.展开更多
Based on the second order random wave solutions of water wave equations in finite water depth, statistical distributions of the depth integrated local horizontal momentum components are derived by use of the character...Based on the second order random wave solutions of water wave equations in finite water depth, statistical distributions of the depth integrated local horizontal momentum components are derived by use of the characteristic function expansion method. The parameters involved in the distributions can be all determined by the water depth and the wave number spectrum of ocean waves. As an illustrative example, a fully developed wind generated sea is considered and the parameters are calculated for typical wind speeds and water depths by means of the Donelan and Pierson spectrum. The effects of nonlinearity and water depth on the distributions are also investigated.展开更多
A statistic method, statistics of extreme values (SEV), was described in detail, which can esti mate the size of maximum inclusion in steel. The characteristic size of the maximum inclusion in a high clean bearing s...A statistic method, statistics of extreme values (SEV), was described in detail, which can esti mate the size of maximum inclusion in steel. The characteristic size of the maximum inclusion in a high clean bearing steel (GCrl5) was evaluated by this method, and the morphology and corn position of large inclusions found were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). When standard inspection area (S0) is 280 mm2, the characteristic size of the biggest inclusion found in 30 standard inspection area is 23.93 μm, and it has a 99.9% probability of the characteristic size of maximum inclusion predicted being no larger than 36.85μm in the experimental steel. SEM result shows that large inclusions found are mainly composed of CaS, calcium-aluminate and MgO. Compositing widely exists in large inclusions in high clean bearing steel. Compared with traditional evaluation method, SEV method mainly focuses on inclusion size, and the esti- mation result is not affected by inclusion types. SEV method is suitable for the inclusion eval uation of high clean bearing steel.展开更多
Objective To determine the best statistical distribution of concentration data of major air pollutants in Shanghai. Methods Four types of theoretic distributions (lognormal, gamma, Pearson V and extreme value) were ch...Objective To determine the best statistical distribution of concentration data of major air pollutants in Shanghai. Methods Four types of theoretic distributions (lognormal, gamma, Pearson V and extreme value) were chosen to fit daily average concentration data of PM10, SO2 and NO2 from June 1, 2000 to May 31, 2003 in Shanghai by using the maximum likelihood method. The fit results were evaluated by Chi-square test. Results The best-fit distributions for PM10,SO2 and NO2 concentrations in Shanghai were lognormal, Pearson V, and extreme value distributions, respectively. Conclusion The results can be further applied to local air pollution prediction and control, e.g., the probabilities exceeding the air quality standard and emission source reduction of air pollutant concentration to meet the standard.展开更多
Wave steepness is an important characteristic describing the severity of sea state in ocean engineering. In the existing theoretical and experimental studies,wave steepness is often substituted by some related quantit...Wave steepness is an important characteristic describing the severity of sea state in ocean engineering. In the existing theoretical and experimental studies,wave steepness is often substituted by some related quantities. In this paper,a new probability density function(pdf) of steepness,which is a pdf of the steepness in its original definition,is obtained for narrowband Gaussian processes. The drawback inherent in the previous theoretical pdfs of steepness,that is,the probability density at zero steepness is nonzero,has been eliminated. Laboratory experiments were conducted in a wind-wave flume to measure the wave steepness distribution. Comparisons among laboratory measurements and some theoretical pdfs of steepness show that the new pdf generally fits the data better than the one proposed by Zheng et al.(1999) .展开更多
A general version of the inverted exponential distribution is introduced, studied and analyzed. This generalization depends on the method of Marshall-Olkin to extend a family of distributions. Some statistical and rel...A general version of the inverted exponential distribution is introduced, studied and analyzed. This generalization depends on the method of Marshall-Olkin to extend a family of distributions. Some statistical and reliability properties of this family are studied. In addition, numerical estimation of the maximum likelihood estimate(MLE) parameters are discussed in details. As an application, some real data sets are analyzed and it is observed that the presented family provides a better fit than some other known distributions.展开更多
The pits and pit-associated fatigue crack initiation of the offshore structure steel A537cLl have been investigated under salt water spray condition.The tests were interrupted on sched- ule to make plastic replica of ...The pits and pit-associated fatigue crack initiation of the offshore structure steel A537cLl have been investigated under salt water spray condition.The tests were interrupted on sched- ule to make plastic replica of corroded specimen surface on which many randomly distributed pits can be found.The development of the geometric parameters of pits was obtained and the statistical distributions of these parameters were determined.Instead of depth,the ratio of depth to width is the most dominant parameter in relation to crack initiation.Also,the pitting was enhanced when low frequency or high stress range was applied and although stress range has no effect on the nucleation of pits,it can accelerate the initiation of cracks from pits.展开更多
On the basis of the linear model of random sea waves presented by Longuet-Higgins,the statistical distribution of the horizontal velocities of water particles at wave surface maxima is derived theoretically.The derive...On the basis of the linear model of random sea waves presented by Longuet-Higgins,the statistical distribution of the horizontal velocities of water particles at wave surface maxima is derived theoretically.The derived distribution is similar to that of wave surface maxima,and a new spectral width epsilon(u),which is defined as(1-m(3)(2)/m(2)m(4))(1/2),is introduced in the distribution.When epsilon(u)tends to zero,the distribution is reduced to Rayleigh distribution and it is reduced to the normal distribution when epsilon(u)tends to unity.For a narrow spectrum,it is proved that epsilon is equal to 1/2 epsilon,where epsilon is(1-m(2)(2)/m(0)m(4))(1/2)and is the commonly used spectral width.展开更多
Forecasting mine production is pertinent to gold mining as it serves as production goals for investors. It is therefore important to identify the exact distribution that gold production as a response variable naturall...Forecasting mine production is pertinent to gold mining as it serves as production goals for investors. It is therefore important to identify the exact distribution that gold production as a response variable naturally follows. It is even more appropriate to have a model(s) with few predictor variables. This paper seeks to identify appropriate statistical distribution functions for fitting gold production in Ghana. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold production between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Weibull, Log-Normal, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC, AICc and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the reduced modified 3-parameter Weibull distribution provided the best fit for gold production in Ghana. Though the reduced modified Weibull function is proposed, it is important however to recognize that other external factors can influence production levels. Also, the average quarterly fitted gold production is 1000334.8918 ± 75,327.080 (±7.5%) [i.e., 925,007.812 – 1,075,661.972]. This indicates that the average annually fitted gold production lies between 3700031.248 and 4302647.888 ounces at 99.9% confidence level. Therefore, the predicted gold production for the year 2022 is 3.7million ounces at 99.9% confidence level.展开更多
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Grant No.2025JCTP01)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFB4601101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12261131495).
摘要The precise modeling of strong nonlinear transient evolution in nonlinear dynamical systems,including soliton evolution,remains a long-term challenge.Deep learning models with powerful nonlinear fitting capabilities have become efficient tools for physical system modeling.However,existing initialization methods rely on statistical distribution assumptions and lack constraints from physical mechanisms,which easily lead to suboptimal solutions and severely limit model prediction accuracy and generalization.Based on the energy minimization principle of physical systems,this work proposes energy-based initialization(EBI).This method requires only prior structural knowledge of the physical system as input,without experimental data or architecture customization,to guide initial weights to align with the intrinsic dynamical structure of physical systems.The work further derives an upper bound on the distance between EBI initial weights and optimal weights for downstream tasks,and proves that its performance advantage increases monotonically with the expansion of model parameter scale.Validation across four typical physical scenarios shows that EBI outperforms classical initialization schemes across all metrics,while initialization for a model with 4.7 million parameters takes less than 5 minutes.This work fills the gap of specialized initialization methods in AI for physics,provides efficient support for tasks such as transient prediction of optical fiber laser and inverse sensing of laser structures,and is expected to open new directions for interdisciplinary research between artificial intelligence and physics.
摘要The chemical composition in a cross section of a high grade pipeline slab was measured point by point (in a scale of 1 μm) using original position statistic distribution analysis (OPA). The result indicated that negative segregation strips of Si, Mn, Mo, Ni, Cr, Nb, Cu, Ti, and V exist in the two sides 24 mm away from the central line, with a width of 8-12 mm, Negative segregation inside the central line is more severe than that outside the central line, and the highest positive segregation of the elements appears closely by the inner sides of the negative segregation strips. No obvious negative segregation strip of S and P is found. Segregation of the elements in the central area is higher than that in the outer and inner arc areas. The segregation of C, Ti, S, and P is high and that of Cr, Cu, Si, and Mn is low in the slab.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2016YFC1401008the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41376179the National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers under contract No.U1406404
摘要Although the complex Wishart distribution has been widely used to analyze the statistic properties of quad-pol SAR spatial data, the applicability of this complex distribution to the time series of sea clutter is rarely discussed.The measured data of the quad-pol X-band marine radar demonstrate that the time series of the sea echoes are also satisfied the circular Gaussian distributions if the low intensity signals, which are mainly dominated by a radar noise, in the shadow regions of the large-scale waves are removed. On the basis of this fact, the probability density functions(PDFs) of the intensity as well as the phase, the real and the imaginary parts of the sea echoes obtained by the marine radar have been derived, and the theoretical models are all expressed in closed forms. In order to validate the theoretical results, the PDFs are compared with the experimental data collected by the Mc Master IPIX radar. And the comparisons show that the PDF models are in good agreement with the experimental data.
基金Supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC,No.DP0774061)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50638030 and 50528808).
摘要The hazard caused by the fragments of damaged structures is usually significant in acci-dental explosions or hostile blast events.A reliable and efficient method to estimate probable fragment size,velocity and launch distance will be useful to assess and design countermeasures to mitigate the possible fragment hazards.This paper presents a numerical method for predicting the size and launch distance of the fragments caused by explosive damage of masonry wall.Numerical simulations with different scaled distances are carried out,and the statistical distribution functions of the fragment size and launch distance in terms of the scaled distance are derived.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.61372156 and 61405053)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China(Grant No.LZ13F04001)
摘要The random telegraph signal noise in the pixel source follower MOSFET is the principle component of the noise in the CMOS image sensor under low light. In this paper, the physical and statistical model of the random telegraph signal noise in the pixel source follower based on the binomial distribution is set up. The number of electrons captured or released by the oxide traps in the unit time is described as the random variables which obey the binomial distribution. As a result,the output states and the corresponding probabilities of the first and the second samples of the correlated double sampling circuit are acquired. The standard deviation of the output states after the correlated double sampling circuit can be obtained accordingly. In the simulation section, one hundred thousand samples of the source follower MOSFET have been simulated,and the simulation results show that the proposed model has the similar statistical characteristics with the existing models under the effect of the channel length and the density of the oxide trap. Moreover, the noise histogram of the proposed model has been evaluated at different environmental temperatures.
摘要The maximum entropy principle(MEP) is one of the first methods which have been used to predict droplet size and velocity distributions of liquid sprays. This method needs a mean droplets diameter as an input to predict the droplet size distribution. This paper presents a new sub-model based on the deterministic aspects of liquid atomization process independent of the experimental data to provide the mean droplets diameter for using in the maximum entropy formulation(MEF). For this purpose, a theoretical model based on the approach of energy conservation law entitled energy-based model(EBM) is presented. Based on this approach, atomization occurs due to the kinetic energy loss. Prediction of the combined model(MEF/EBM) is in good agreement with the available experimental data. The energy-based model can be used as a fast and reliable enough model to obtain a good estimation of the mean droplets diameter of a spray and the combined model(MEF/EBM) can be used to well predict the droplet size distribution at the primary breakup.
基金The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1504802)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41972266,12102230).
摘要A method for packing irregular particles with a prescribed volume fraction is proposed.Furthermore,the generated granular material adheres to the prescribed statistical distribution and satisfies the desired complex spatial arrangement.First,the irregular geometries of the realistic particles were obtained from the original particle images.Second,the Minkowski sum was used to check the overlap between irregular particles and place an irregular particle in contact with other particles.Third,the optimised advance front method(OAFM)generated irregular particle packing with the prescribed statistical dis-tribution and volume fraction based on the Minkowski sum.Moreover,the signed distance function was introduced to pack the particles in accordance with the desired spatial arrangement.Finally,seven biaxial tests were performed using the UDEC software,which demonstrated the accuracy and potential usefulness of the proposed method.It can model granular material efficiently and reflect the meso-structural characteristics of complex granular materials.This method has a wide range of applications where discrete modelling of granular media is necessary.
基金This work was financially supported by the National Science Foundation of China(No.49476270)
摘要The statistical distribution of wavelength is directly derived from a two-dimensional and spatially homogeneous Gaussian wave field. The present result differs from both the result of Rayleigh distribution and Sun's result (1988b) which is transformed through the period distribution derived from a two-dimensional and stationary Gaussian wave field. A laboratory experiment shows that the present result is more consistent with the observations in the wave tank than the others.
摘要We are very grateful for the letter written by Dr Lange,and indeed apologize for the mistakes noted in the word-ing of our text regarding statistical analysis.This wasdue to changes carried out while revising the manuscriptat the request of reviewers,whom we thank for,point-ing out several issues that were actually similar to thosenoted by Dr.Lange.Unfortunately,we were unable todescribe and discuss our findings properly in the context
基金Supported by the High-Tech Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, No. 2001AA633070 2003AA604040)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40476015).
摘要This study deals with the development of statistical modeling for water wave surface elevation by using a method that combines a dynamic solution with random process statistics. Ocean wave data taken from four NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) buoys moored in the northeast Pacific were used to validate the model. The results indicated that the nonlinear probability density distribution of ocean wave surface elevation derived from the model described the measurements much better than Gaussian distribution and Longuet-Higgins distribution.
摘要In order to research possible influences of the adjustment of plant distribution on the development frequency of thunderstorms over the Leizhou Peninsula, mathematic statistic methods, including correlation analyses, 11 kinds of fitting models and all-variable regression methods, were used for analyses and research. The results show that the average trend of the number of annual thunderstorm days is descending obviously, and there are thunderstorms in all seasons, in which warm post-midday thunderstorms have taken up the most part, and high frequency is found from May to September, and the starting and ending dates of thunderstorms have a great annual discrepancy. The vegetation structure has been improved along with the reduction of rice fields and the area increment of sugarcane and fruits planting, which results in the decrease of the number of thunderstorm days; the change in the characteristics of winter spare fields, which is caused by the planting of vegetables, limits the formation of thunderstorms in early winter and late spring. Meanwhile, the area adjustment of peanut planting has little influence on the variation of thunderstorm days. The adjustment of principal crop distribution, such as rice, sugarcane, fruits and vegetables, may have obvious influence on the formation of thunderstorms, and sugarcane has the largest effect, followed in turn by rice, vegetables and fruits, and the adjustment of crop distribution has little influence on the starting and ending dates of thunderstorms.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program (973 program) of China (2011CB503802)Gong-Yi Program of China Ministry of Environmental Protection (201209008)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (NCET-09-0314)
摘要Objective To estimate the frequency of daily average PM10 concentrations exceeding the air quality standard (AQS) and the reduction of particulate matter emission to meet the AQS from the statistical properties (probability density functions) of air pollutant concentration. Methods The daily PM10 average concentration in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Xi'an was measured from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2008. The PM10 concentration distribution was simulated by using the Iognormal, Weibull and Gamma distributions and the best statistical distribution of PM10 concentration in the 5 cities was detected using to the maximum likelihood method. Results The daily PM10 average concentration in the 5 cities was fitted using the Iognormal distribution. The exceeding duration was predicted, and the estimated PMlo emission source reductions in the 5 cities need to be 56.58%, 93.40%, 80.17%, 82.40%, and 79.80%, respectively to meet the AO, S. Conclusion Air pollutant concentration can be predicted by using the PM10 concentration distribution, which can be further applied in air quality management and related policy making.
摘要Based on the second order random wave solutions of water wave equations in finite water depth, statistical distributions of the depth integrated local horizontal momentum components are derived by use of the characteristic function expansion method. The parameters involved in the distributions can be all determined by the water depth and the wave number spectrum of ocean waves. As an illustrative example, a fully developed wind generated sea is considered and the parameters are calculated for typical wind speeds and water depths by means of the Donelan and Pierson spectrum. The effects of nonlinearity and water depth on the distributions are also investigated.
基金funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China(51474076)International S&T Cooperation Program(ISTCP)of China(2015DFG51950)
摘要A statistic method, statistics of extreme values (SEV), was described in detail, which can esti mate the size of maximum inclusion in steel. The characteristic size of the maximum inclusion in a high clean bearing steel (GCrl5) was evaluated by this method, and the morphology and corn position of large inclusions found were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). When standard inspection area (S0) is 280 mm2, the characteristic size of the biggest inclusion found in 30 standard inspection area is 23.93 μm, and it has a 99.9% probability of the characteristic size of maximum inclusion predicted being no larger than 36.85μm in the experimental steel. SEM result shows that large inclusions found are mainly composed of CaS, calcium-aluminate and MgO. Compositing widely exists in large inclusions in high clean bearing steel. Compared with traditional evaluation method, SEV method mainly focuses on inclusion size, and the esti- mation result is not affected by inclusion types. SEV method is suitable for the inclusion eval uation of high clean bearing steel.
基金This work was supported by Shanghai Municipal Committee of Science and Technology through grant 03DZ05052.
摘要Objective To determine the best statistical distribution of concentration data of major air pollutants in Shanghai. Methods Four types of theoretic distributions (lognormal, gamma, Pearson V and extreme value) were chosen to fit daily average concentration data of PM10, SO2 and NO2 from June 1, 2000 to May 31, 2003 in Shanghai by using the maximum likelihood method. The fit results were evaluated by Chi-square test. Results The best-fit distributions for PM10,SO2 and NO2 concentrations in Shanghai were lognormal, Pearson V, and extreme value distributions, respectively. Conclusion The results can be further applied to local air pollution prediction and control, e.g., the probabilities exceeding the air quality standard and emission source reduction of air pollutant concentration to meet the standard.
摘要Wave steepness is an important characteristic describing the severity of sea state in ocean engineering. In the existing theoretical and experimental studies,wave steepness is often substituted by some related quantities. In this paper,a new probability density function(pdf) of steepness,which is a pdf of the steepness in its original definition,is obtained for narrowband Gaussian processes. The drawback inherent in the previous theoretical pdfs of steepness,that is,the probability density at zero steepness is nonzero,has been eliminated. Laboratory experiments were conducted in a wind-wave flume to measure the wave steepness distribution. Comparisons among laboratory measurements and some theoretical pdfs of steepness show that the new pdf generally fits the data better than the one proposed by Zheng et al.(1999) .
基金supported by the Research Center of the Female Scientific and Medical Colleges,Deanship of Scientific Research,King Saud University
摘要A general version of the inverted exponential distribution is introduced, studied and analyzed. This generalization depends on the method of Marshall-Olkin to extend a family of distributions. Some statistical and reliability properties of this family are studied. In addition, numerical estimation of the maximum likelihood estimate(MLE) parameters are discussed in details. As an application, some real data sets are analyzed and it is observed that the presented family provides a better fit than some other known distributions.
摘要The pits and pit-associated fatigue crack initiation of the offshore structure steel A537cLl have been investigated under salt water spray condition.The tests were interrupted on sched- ule to make plastic replica of corroded specimen surface on which many randomly distributed pits can be found.The development of the geometric parameters of pits was obtained and the statistical distributions of these parameters were determined.Instead of depth,the ratio of depth to width is the most dominant parameter in relation to crack initiation.Also,the pitting was enhanced when low frequency or high stress range was applied and although stress range has no effect on the nucleation of pits,it can accelerate the initiation of cracks from pits.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.(No.49676274)
摘要On the basis of the linear model of random sea waves presented by Longuet-Higgins,the statistical distribution of the horizontal velocities of water particles at wave surface maxima is derived theoretically.The derived distribution is similar to that of wave surface maxima,and a new spectral width epsilon(u),which is defined as(1-m(3)(2)/m(2)m(4))(1/2),is introduced in the distribution.When epsilon(u)tends to zero,the distribution is reduced to Rayleigh distribution and it is reduced to the normal distribution when epsilon(u)tends to unity.For a narrow spectrum,it is proved that epsilon is equal to 1/2 epsilon,where epsilon is(1-m(2)(2)/m(0)m(4))(1/2)and is the commonly used spectral width.
摘要Forecasting mine production is pertinent to gold mining as it serves as production goals for investors. It is therefore important to identify the exact distribution that gold production as a response variable naturally follows. It is even more appropriate to have a model(s) with few predictor variables. This paper seeks to identify appropriate statistical distribution functions for fitting gold production in Ghana. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold production between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Weibull, Log-Normal, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC, AICc and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the reduced modified 3-parameter Weibull distribution provided the best fit for gold production in Ghana. Though the reduced modified Weibull function is proposed, it is important however to recognize that other external factors can influence production levels. Also, the average quarterly fitted gold production is 1000334.8918 ± 75,327.080 (±7.5%) [i.e., 925,007.812 – 1,075,661.972]. This indicates that the average annually fitted gold production lies between 3700031.248 and 4302647.888 ounces at 99.9% confidence level. Therefore, the predicted gold production for the year 2022 is 3.7million ounces at 99.9% confidence level.