Regression is a widely used econometric tool in research. In observational studies, based on a number of assumptions, regression-based statistical control methods attempt to analyze the causation between treatment and...Regression is a widely used econometric tool in research. In observational studies, based on a number of assumptions, regression-based statistical control methods attempt to analyze the causation between treatment and outcome by adding control variables. However, this approach may not produce reliable estimates of causal effects. In addition to the shortcomings of the method, this lack of confidence is mainly related to ambiguous formulations in econometrics, such as the definition of selection bias, selection of core control variables, and method of testing for robustness. Within the framework of the causal models, we clarify the assumption of causal inference using regression-based statistical controls, as described in econometrics, and discuss how to select core control variables to satisfy this assumption and conduct robustness tests for regression estimates.展开更多
The new economics and business degrees adapted to the European Higher Education Area (EHEA) must face the challenge of training individuals capable of analyzing and interpreting the functioning of the economy improv...The new economics and business degrees adapted to the European Higher Education Area (EHEA) must face the challenge of training individuals capable of analyzing and interpreting the functioning of the economy improving the well-being of the society. Therefore, econometrics should be considered as a strategic tool which is narrowly related with some main competences such as information management, problem solving or decision-making. In this paper we summarize our experiences based in blended learning, which provide several interesting findings, based on both students' and teachers' opinions. We have experienced that doing econometrics is a good way of learning econometrics, as it proves the teamwork developed with Gretl, which has shown to be a suitable, user-friendly, flexible, open-source and accurate software. Furthermore, according to students' online surveys, blended learning provides outstanding advantages in the achievement of competences as problem solving, applying knowledge in practice, computing and information management and teamwork.展开更多
This paper utilizes a panel data of 31 provinces in China spanning from 2007 to 2014.Spatial econometrics is applied to carry out regression analysis of the impact of urbanization and factor inputs on China's econ...This paper utilizes a panel data of 31 provinces in China spanning from 2007 to 2014.Spatial econometrics is applied to carry out regression analysis of the impact of urbanization and factor inputs on China's economic growth.By comparing differences among regions,this paper finds that in the regional level,the positive effect of urbanization in the Eastern region and the Western region is significant,and the positive effect of the proportion of input factors in the Central region is also significant but to a lesser extent.In general,there exists spatial spill-over effect between urbanization and factor inputs structure and economic growth,i.e.,both are capable of producing positive effect,but the input role played by the scale factor has diminishing marginal effect.Urbanization is more likely to become the driving force of economic growth and to stimulate economic growth.展开更多
Due to the outbreak of the Covid-19 in 2020,online education has become the mainstream.After the epidemic,the blending learning mode has also become a key goal of the teaching reform of colleges and universities,and t...Due to the outbreak of the Covid-19 in 2020,online education has become the mainstream.After the epidemic,the blending learning mode has also become a key goal of the teaching reform of colleges and universities,and the blending learning mode of various courses has blossomed everywhere.In this context,this paper used the Econometrics course as the carrier,analyzed the many unreasonable problems in the traditional Econometrics course,and proposed an optimization plan and path for the blending learning mode to address these problems.展开更多
This paper summarizes my previous work in Lin (2010), in which I use spatial econometrics to analyze air pollution externalities. In Lin (2010), state-by-state source-receptor transfer coefficients that can be used as...This paper summarizes my previous work in Lin (2010), in which I use spatial econometrics to analyze air pollution externalities. In Lin (2010), state-by-state source-receptor transfer coefficients that can be used as a basis for a location- differentiated permit system are estimated. Results affirm the importance of regional transport in determining local ozone air quality, although owing to non-monotonicities in ozone production the externality is not always negative. Because the origin of emissions matters, results also reject a non-spatially differentiated NOx cap and trade program as an appropriate mechanism for reducing ozone smog.展开更多
This is a critical note regarding the currently established econometrics of time series. The criticism involves commonly practiced mechanistic modeling and testing of relationships, taking econometrics away from econo...This is a critical note regarding the currently established econometrics of time series. The criticism involves commonly practiced mechanistic modeling and testing of relationships, taking econometrics away from economics. Among others, modeling economic trends as simple functions of time is extremely naive and testing for cointegration lacks a proper economic foundation.展开更多
This study explores the application of Bayesian econometrics in policy evaluation through theoretical analysis. The research first reviews the theoretical foundations of Bayesian methods, including the concepts of Bay...This study explores the application of Bayesian econometrics in policy evaluation through theoretical analysis. The research first reviews the theoretical foundations of Bayesian methods, including the concepts of Bayesian inference, prior distributions, and posterior distributions. Through systematic analysis, the study constructs a theoretical framework for applying Bayesian methods in policy evaluation. The research finds that Bayesian methods have multiple theoretical advantages in policy evaluation: Based on parameter uncertainty theory, Bayesian methods can better handle uncertainty in model parameters and provide more comprehensive estimates of policy effects;from the perspective of model selection theory, Bayesian model averaging can reduce model selection bias and enhance the robustness of evaluation results;according to causal inference theory, Bayesian causal inference methods provide new approaches for evaluating policy causal effects. The study also points out the complexities of applying Bayesian methods in policy evaluation, such as the selection of prior information and computational complexity. To address these complexities, the study proposes hybrid methods combining frequentist approaches and suggestions for developing computationally efficient algorithms. The research also discusses theoretical comparisons between Bayesian methods and other policy evaluation techniques, providing directions for future research.展开更多
Researchers must understand that naively relying on the reliability of statistical software packages may result in suboptimal, biased, or erroneous results, which affects applied economic theory and the conclusions an...Researchers must understand that naively relying on the reliability of statistical software packages may result in suboptimal, biased, or erroneous results, which affects applied economic theory and the conclusions and policy recommendations drawn from it. To create confidence in a result, several software packages should be applied to the same estimation problem. This study examines the results of three software packages (EViews, R, and Stata) in the analysis of time-series econometric data. The time-series data analysis which presents the determinants of macroeconomic growth of Sri Lanka from 1978 to 2020 has been used. The study focuses on testing for stationarity, cointegration, and significant relationships among the variables. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips Perron tests were employed in this study to test for stationarity, while the Johansen cointegration test was utilized to test for cointegration. The study employs the vector error correction model to assess the short-run and long-term dynamics of the variables in an attempt to determine the relationship between them. Finally, the Granger Causality test is employed in order to examine the linear causation between the concerned variables. The study revealed that the results produced by three software packages for the same dataset and the same lag order vary significantly. This implies that time series econometrics results are sensitive to the software that is used by the researchers while providing different policy implications even for the same dataset. The present study highlights the necessity of further analysis to investigate the impact of software packages in time series analysis of economic scenarios.展开更多
To capitalize on the synergies between the Econometrics course and the Environmental Economics major,this paper aims to enhance students’ability to conduct empirical analysis and practical application using econometr...To capitalize on the synergies between the Econometrics course and the Environmental Economics major,this paper aims to enhance students’ability to conduct empirical analysis and practical application using econometric models.It also seeks to promote collaborative teaching through case studies and model research.The primary focus is on the hot research issues within the field of environmental economics,utilizing the econometric model as a vehicle for instruction.To achieve this,the paper proposes the development of a comprehensive case library specific to environmental economics.This resource will serve to optimize the case teaching approach,incorporating the use of econometric software,and fostering interactive teaching models between educators and students.By implementing these strategies,the paper outlines a path and mode for collaborative teaching that effectively bridges the gap between econometrics and environmental economics.展开更多
In the context of the new era,econometrics,as a core course in economics,should not only focus on knowledge transfer but also emphasize the integration of ideological and political education(IPE)in order to cultivate ...In the context of the new era,econometrics,as a core course in economics,should not only focus on knowledge transfer but also emphasize the integration of ideological and political education(IPE)in order to cultivate high-quality talents with social responsibility and innovative spirit.Based on the existing problems in econometrics teaching,this study proposes innovative teaching designs and practical pathways.By optimizing teaching content,innovating pedagogical approaches,and reforming evaluation mechanisms,this paper aims to achieve deep integration of IPE into econometrics,thereby enhancing teaching effectiveness and improving students’overall competencies.展开更多
The Yangtze River Delta(YRD)is one of China’s most economically dense regions with the most dynamic county-level economies.The YRD’s success in addressing air pollution at the county level directly affects the ecolo...The Yangtze River Delta(YRD)is one of China’s most economically dense regions with the most dynamic county-level economies.The YRD’s success in addressing air pollution at the county level directly affects the ecological security of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.This study utilizes panel data of 151 counties in the YRD from 2003 to 2022.It regards the expansion of members of the YRD Urban Economic Coordination Council as a quasi-natural experiment.This study analyzes the influence of regional integration on county-level air pollution using the difference-in-differences approach,the synthetic difference-in-differences methodology,and spatial econometrics.Our findings indicate that:(1)regional integration can significantly reduce air pollution at the county level;(2)the environmental impact of regional integration is heterogeneous,influenced by regional differences,administrative constraints,and industrial foundations;and(3)regional integration reduces air pollution through advancing industrial structure and technological innovation,along with spatial spillover impacts.Therefore,policymakers should attach importance to air quality governance in counties,deepen regional integration strategies,optimize industrial structures,enhance technological innovation,and strengthen collaborative environmental governance to continuously promote regional sustainable development.展开更多
Advances in Alzheimer's disease(AD)research have deepened our understanding,yet the mechanisms driving its progression remain unclear.Although a range of in vivo biomarkers is now available(e.g.,measurements of am...Advances in Alzheimer's disease(AD)research have deepened our understanding,yet the mechanisms driving its progression remain unclear.Although a range of in vivo biomarkers is now available(e.g.,measurements of amyloidbeta(Aβ)and ta u accumulation-the molecular hallmarks of AD-structural magnetic resonance imaging(MRI),assessments of brain metabolism,and,more recently,blood-based markers),a definitive diagnosis of AD continues to be challenging.For example,Frisoni et al.展开更多
Urbanization has been widely recognized as one of the most important factors affecting urban land use,especially in densely populated and ecologically sensitive river basins.Therefore,cities must transition from high-...Urbanization has been widely recognized as one of the most important factors affecting urban land use,especially in densely populated and ecologically sensitive river basins.Therefore,cities must transition from high-pollution practices to more sustainable land resource management for socio-economic development.The objective of this study was to fill the knowledge gap regarding the impact of urbanization on urban land green use efficiency(ULGUE)and its regional variations.To achieve this,the Malmquist-Luenberger model and a spatial econometric model were employed to assess ULGUE and examine the spatial correlation between urbanization and ULGUE from 2005 to 2022.The analysis was conducted in China's prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)and Yellow River Basin(YRB)regions.The results indicated that the ULGUE of the YREB fluctuated upward,whereas that of the YRB fluctuated downward,with cities along the rivers exhibiting higher efficiency was higher.The spatial distribution characteristics of urbanization rates in the two basins demonstrated that the Heihe-Tengchong Line serves as a dividing line for urbanization levels.In addition,the spatial relationship between urbanization and ULGUE exhibited significant heterogeneity across different basins and cities of varying sizes.These findings inform decision-making for sustainable urban development in river basins.展开更多
This study analysed the factors leading to the adoption of forested“zaï”technology and how to take advantage of its outcomes in the local environment.Socio-economic data were collected from a sample of 130 prod...This study analysed the factors leading to the adoption of forested“zaï”technology and how to take advantage of its outcomes in the local environment.Socio-economic data were collected from a sample of 130 producers although data related to the tree distribution in fields and fallows were collected in 40 sampling plots in 4 villages of the Yaadga Province.Descriptive analyses were performed on the importance of trees for the local sahelian populations and logit model to characterize the determinants of the adoption of the forested“zaï”technology.The results showed that trees were maintained for both men and animals,and in the restoration of degraded land.The use of forested“zaï”technology to restore soils,the number of hoes,the number of small ruminants,the source of care and producers network affected the adoption of the technology.Taking into account those variables can contribute to improving natural resources management.展开更多
Econometric simultaneous equation models play an important role in making economic policies, analyzing economic structure and economic forecasting. This paper presents local linear estimators by TSLS with variable ban...Econometric simultaneous equation models play an important role in making economic policies, analyzing economic structure and economic forecasting. This paper presents local linear estimators by TSLS with variable bandwidth for every structural equation in semi-parametric simultaneous equation models in econometrics. The properties under large sample size were studied by using the asymptotic theory when all variables were random. The results show that the estimators of the parameters have consistency and asymptotic normality, and their convergence rates are equal to n^-1/2. And the estimator of the nonparametric function has the consistency and asymptotic normality in interior points and its rate of convergence is equal to the optimal convergence rate of the nonparametric function estimation.展开更多
Green innovation is an important driving force for high-quality development and an important guarantee for the revitalization of the old industrial base in Northeast China.However,research on green innovation is still...Green innovation is an important driving force for high-quality development and an important guarantee for the revitalization of the old industrial base in Northeast China.However,research on green innovation is still insufficient.Using the super-efficiency epsilon-based measure Malmquist model,kernel density estimation,and spatial econometric model,this study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of green innovation efficiency(GIE)in Northeast China from 2005 to 2020.The results reveal that:1)The GIE in Northeast China has obvious phased characteristics,where 2005-2011 was a period of fluctuating decline while 2012-2020 was a period of fluctuating increase,reflecting the severe resource and environmental constraints faced by the green innovation process.2)The GIE in the Northeast China has a significant spatial dependence,which has not formed a relatively stable spatial club feature.The process for improving the GIE in the Northeast China in the future is still arduous and far off.3)The interweaving and mutual influence of nonequilibrium factors have led to the diversity and complexity of the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of GIE.Overall,the level of economic development and industrial structure has a positive effect,while foreign investment and industrial agglomeration have a negative effect.The direct effects of government regulation,resource endowment,science and technology,environmental regulation,and urbanization are not significant.The research conclusion of this article can provide important reference for the revitalization of Northeast China.展开更多
Financial time series have been analyzed with a wide variety of models and approaches,some of which can forecast with great accuracy.However,most of these models,especially the machine learning ones,cannot show additi...Financial time series have been analyzed with a wide variety of models and approaches,some of which can forecast with great accuracy.However,most of these models,especially the machine learning ones,cannot show additional information for the decision maker or the financial analyst.The notion of causality is a concept that provides a more complete understanding of a problem beyond improved forecasts.In this study,we propose integrating the treatment/control concept of causality into a forecasting framework to better predict financial time series.Our results show that the proposed methodology outperforms classic econometric approaches such as ARIMA and Random Walk,as well as machine learning approaches without the proposed methodology.This improvement is statistically significant,as indicated by the Model Confidence Set test in the complete test set and quarterly analysis.展开更多
Green technology innovation has gradually become an important driving force to promote new quality productivity.This paper constructs a quantitative index system of new quality productivity based on the three major el...Green technology innovation has gradually become an important driving force to promote new quality productivity.This paper constructs a quantitative index system of new quality productivity based on the three major elements of workers,labour objects and labour tools,and empirically analyses the impact of green technology innovation on the level of new quality productivity using spatial econometric model and VAR model.The result shows that:(1)The level of new quality productivity is not only affected by its own factors,but also by the significant spatial spillover effect between regions,especially in the case of strong geographic proximity,the interregional economic activities and resource allocation have a strong interaction and dependence.(2)The direct effect of green technology innovation is negative,mainly due to the high R&D investment and the short-term cost increase brought about by technological transformation,but its indirect effect is positive,showing that green technology has a positive effect on the new quality productivity enhancement of neighbouring regions through technology diffusion and cooperative innovation.(3)The eastern and western regions are affected by high upfront costs and transformation challenges,showing negative effects;while the central and northeastern regions benefit from policy support and industrial upgrading,showing positive effects.(4)Impulse response function analysis shows that the short-term impact of green technological innovation on new quality productivity is negative,but the long-term potential is significant,and the negative effect gradually diminishes over time.Based on this,this paper puts forward the suggestions of optimising the green innovation input structure,formulating regional differentiated policies and strengthening regional synergistic cooperation,which provide the theoretical basis and practical path for realising the green transformation and high-quality development of the economy.展开更多
This study investigates the spatial courting between digital economic signs and local monetary overall performance throughout ten provinces in Sumatra,Indonesia,from 2019 to 2022.As digitalization hastens economic and...This study investigates the spatial courting between digital economic signs and local monetary overall performance throughout ten provinces in Sumatra,Indonesia,from 2019 to 2022.As digitalization hastens economic and business sports,devices together with fintech lending,e-cash,debit card usage,and e-commerce are increasingly more diagnosed as capability drivers of regional increase.But,the unequal distribution of digital infrastructure and monetary literacy across regions raises issues approximately the inclusivity of these benefits.constructing upon current findings by using Miranti et al.(2024),this research employs spatial econometric fashions-particularly the Spatial Lag model(SLM)and Spatial mistakes model(SEM)-to evaluate how digital variables influence provincial financial overall performance while accounting for spatial spillover consequences.The results reveal that fintech lending and debit card usage exert a positive and significant impact on economic growth,whereas the effect of e-money is negative,suggesting potential substitution effects or access constraints.Spatial dependency is also evident,as demonstrated by the significant lambda coefficient in the SEM model.These findings highlight the importance of spatially coordinated digital policies,particularly in addressing disparities and enhancing digital financial inclusion.The study concludes with policy recommendations aimed at fostering inclusive and spatially balanced digital economic development in Sumatra.展开更多
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.72074060).
摘要Regression is a widely used econometric tool in research. In observational studies, based on a number of assumptions, regression-based statistical control methods attempt to analyze the causation between treatment and outcome by adding control variables. However, this approach may not produce reliable estimates of causal effects. In addition to the shortcomings of the method, this lack of confidence is mainly related to ambiguous formulations in econometrics, such as the definition of selection bias, selection of core control variables, and method of testing for robustness. Within the framework of the causal models, we clarify the assumption of causal inference using regression-based statistical controls, as described in econometrics, and discuss how to select core control variables to satisfy this assumption and conduct robustness tests for regression estimates.
摘要The new economics and business degrees adapted to the European Higher Education Area (EHEA) must face the challenge of training individuals capable of analyzing and interpreting the functioning of the economy improving the well-being of the society. Therefore, econometrics should be considered as a strategic tool which is narrowly related with some main competences such as information management, problem solving or decision-making. In this paper we summarize our experiences based in blended learning, which provide several interesting findings, based on both students' and teachers' opinions. We have experienced that doing econometrics is a good way of learning econometrics, as it proves the teamwork developed with Gretl, which has shown to be a suitable, user-friendly, flexible, open-source and accurate software. Furthermore, according to students' online surveys, blended learning provides outstanding advantages in the achievement of competences as problem solving, applying knowledge in practice, computing and information management and teamwork.
摘要This paper utilizes a panel data of 31 provinces in China spanning from 2007 to 2014.Spatial econometrics is applied to carry out regression analysis of the impact of urbanization and factor inputs on China's economic growth.By comparing differences among regions,this paper finds that in the regional level,the positive effect of urbanization in the Eastern region and the Western region is significant,and the positive effect of the proportion of input factors in the Central region is also significant but to a lesser extent.In general,there exists spatial spill-over effect between urbanization and factor inputs structure and economic growth,i.e.,both are capable of producing positive effect,but the input role played by the scale factor has diminishing marginal effect.Urbanization is more likely to become the driving force of economic growth and to stimulate economic growth.
基金The 2019 Ministry of Education industry-university cooperation collaborative education project"Research on the Construction of Economics and Management Professional Data Analysis Laboratory"(Project number:201902077020).
摘要Due to the outbreak of the Covid-19 in 2020,online education has become the mainstream.After the epidemic,the blending learning mode has also become a key goal of the teaching reform of colleges and universities,and the blending learning mode of various courses has blossomed everywhere.In this context,this paper used the Econometrics course as the carrier,analyzed the many unreasonable problems in the traditional Econometrics course,and proposed an optimization plan and path for the blending learning mode to address these problems.
摘要This paper summarizes my previous work in Lin (2010), in which I use spatial econometrics to analyze air pollution externalities. In Lin (2010), state-by-state source-receptor transfer coefficients that can be used as a basis for a location- differentiated permit system are estimated. Results affirm the importance of regional transport in determining local ozone air quality, although owing to non-monotonicities in ozone production the externality is not always negative. Because the origin of emissions matters, results also reject a non-spatially differentiated NOx cap and trade program as an appropriate mechanism for reducing ozone smog.
摘要This is a critical note regarding the currently established econometrics of time series. The criticism involves commonly practiced mechanistic modeling and testing of relationships, taking econometrics away from economics. Among others, modeling economic trends as simple functions of time is extremely naive and testing for cointegration lacks a proper economic foundation.
摘要This study explores the application of Bayesian econometrics in policy evaluation through theoretical analysis. The research first reviews the theoretical foundations of Bayesian methods, including the concepts of Bayesian inference, prior distributions, and posterior distributions. Through systematic analysis, the study constructs a theoretical framework for applying Bayesian methods in policy evaluation. The research finds that Bayesian methods have multiple theoretical advantages in policy evaluation: Based on parameter uncertainty theory, Bayesian methods can better handle uncertainty in model parameters and provide more comprehensive estimates of policy effects;from the perspective of model selection theory, Bayesian model averaging can reduce model selection bias and enhance the robustness of evaluation results;according to causal inference theory, Bayesian causal inference methods provide new approaches for evaluating policy causal effects. The study also points out the complexities of applying Bayesian methods in policy evaluation, such as the selection of prior information and computational complexity. To address these complexities, the study proposes hybrid methods combining frequentist approaches and suggestions for developing computationally efficient algorithms. The research also discusses theoretical comparisons between Bayesian methods and other policy evaluation techniques, providing directions for future research.
摘要Researchers must understand that naively relying on the reliability of statistical software packages may result in suboptimal, biased, or erroneous results, which affects applied economic theory and the conclusions and policy recommendations drawn from it. To create confidence in a result, several software packages should be applied to the same estimation problem. This study examines the results of three software packages (EViews, R, and Stata) in the analysis of time-series econometric data. The time-series data analysis which presents the determinants of macroeconomic growth of Sri Lanka from 1978 to 2020 has been used. The study focuses on testing for stationarity, cointegration, and significant relationships among the variables. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips Perron tests were employed in this study to test for stationarity, while the Johansen cointegration test was utilized to test for cointegration. The study employs the vector error correction model to assess the short-run and long-term dynamics of the variables in an attempt to determine the relationship between them. Finally, the Granger Causality test is employed in order to examine the linear causation between the concerned variables. The study revealed that the results produced by three software packages for the same dataset and the same lag order vary significantly. This implies that time series econometrics results are sensitive to the software that is used by the researchers while providing different policy implications even for the same dataset. The present study highlights the necessity of further analysis to investigate the impact of software packages in time series analysis of economic scenarios.
基金supported by the Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science Project(21YJC630009)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72104116).
摘要To capitalize on the synergies between the Econometrics course and the Environmental Economics major,this paper aims to enhance students’ability to conduct empirical analysis and practical application using econometric models.It also seeks to promote collaborative teaching through case studies and model research.The primary focus is on the hot research issues within the field of environmental economics,utilizing the econometric model as a vehicle for instruction.To achieve this,the paper proposes the development of a comprehensive case library specific to environmental economics.This resource will serve to optimize the case teaching approach,incorporating the use of econometric software,and fostering interactive teaching models between educators and students.By implementing these strategies,the paper outlines a path and mode for collaborative teaching that effectively bridges the gap between econometrics and environmental economics.
摘要In the context of the new era,econometrics,as a core course in economics,should not only focus on knowledge transfer but also emphasize the integration of ideological and political education(IPE)in order to cultivate high-quality talents with social responsibility and innovative spirit.Based on the existing problems in econometrics teaching,this study proposes innovative teaching designs and practical pathways.By optimizing teaching content,innovating pedagogical approaches,and reforming evaluation mechanisms,this paper aims to achieve deep integration of IPE into econometrics,thereby enhancing teaching effectiveness and improving students’overall competencies.
基金sponsored by Deep Earth Probe and Mineral Resources Exploration-National Science and Technology Major Project[Grant No.2024ZD1002001]National Social Science Foundation of China[Grant No.24VHQ005],National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant No.72403050]the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[Grant No.2-9-2023-039].
摘要The Yangtze River Delta(YRD)is one of China’s most economically dense regions with the most dynamic county-level economies.The YRD’s success in addressing air pollution at the county level directly affects the ecological security of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.This study utilizes panel data of 151 counties in the YRD from 2003 to 2022.It regards the expansion of members of the YRD Urban Economic Coordination Council as a quasi-natural experiment.This study analyzes the influence of regional integration on county-level air pollution using the difference-in-differences approach,the synthetic difference-in-differences methodology,and spatial econometrics.Our findings indicate that:(1)regional integration can significantly reduce air pollution at the county level;(2)the environmental impact of regional integration is heterogeneous,influenced by regional differences,administrative constraints,and industrial foundations;and(3)regional integration reduces air pollution through advancing industrial structure and technological innovation,along with spatial spillover impacts.Therefore,policymakers should attach importance to air quality governance in counties,deepen regional integration strategies,optimize industrial structures,enhance technological innovation,and strengthen collaborative environmental governance to continuously promote regional sustainable development.
摘要Advances in Alzheimer's disease(AD)research have deepened our understanding,yet the mechanisms driving its progression remain unclear.Although a range of in vivo biomarkers is now available(e.g.,measurements of amyloidbeta(Aβ)and ta u accumulation-the molecular hallmarks of AD-structural magnetic resonance imaging(MRI),assessments of brain metabolism,and,more recently,blood-based markers),a definitive diagnosis of AD continues to be challenging.For example,Frisoni et al.
基金Research Start-up Fund for High-level Talent,No.KYQDJF2025008National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42371315Social Science Foundation of Hubei Province,No.2023185。
摘要Urbanization has been widely recognized as one of the most important factors affecting urban land use,especially in densely populated and ecologically sensitive river basins.Therefore,cities must transition from high-pollution practices to more sustainable land resource management for socio-economic development.The objective of this study was to fill the knowledge gap regarding the impact of urbanization on urban land green use efficiency(ULGUE)and its regional variations.To achieve this,the Malmquist-Luenberger model and a spatial econometric model were employed to assess ULGUE and examine the spatial correlation between urbanization and ULGUE from 2005 to 2022.The analysis was conducted in China's prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)and Yellow River Basin(YRB)regions.The results indicated that the ULGUE of the YREB fluctuated upward,whereas that of the YRB fluctuated downward,with cities along the rivers exhibiting higher efficiency was higher.The spatial distribution characteristics of urbanization rates in the two basins demonstrated that the Heihe-Tengchong Line serves as a dividing line for urbanization levels.In addition,the spatial relationship between urbanization and ULGUE exhibited significant heterogeneity across different basins and cities of varying sizes.These findings inform decision-making for sustainable urban development in river basins.
摘要This study analysed the factors leading to the adoption of forested“zaï”technology and how to take advantage of its outcomes in the local environment.Socio-economic data were collected from a sample of 130 producers although data related to the tree distribution in fields and fallows were collected in 40 sampling plots in 4 villages of the Yaadga Province.Descriptive analyses were performed on the importance of trees for the local sahelian populations and logit model to characterize the determinants of the adoption of the forested“zaï”technology.The results showed that trees were maintained for both men and animals,and in the restoration of degraded land.The use of forested“zaï”technology to restore soils,the number of hoes,the number of small ruminants,the source of care and producers network affected the adoption of the technology.Taking into account those variables can contribute to improving natural resources management.
基金This project is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (70371025)
摘要Econometric simultaneous equation models play an important role in making economic policies, analyzing economic structure and economic forecasting. This paper presents local linear estimators by TSLS with variable bandwidth for every structural equation in semi-parametric simultaneous equation models in econometrics. The properties under large sample size were studied by using the asymptotic theory when all variables were random. The results show that the estimators of the parameters have consistency and asymptotic normality, and their convergence rates are equal to n^-1/2. And the estimator of the nonparametric function has the consistency and asymptotic normality in interior points and its rate of convergence is equal to the optimal convergence rate of the nonparametric function estimation.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42571228,42401212)National Natural Science Foundation of Shandong(No.ZR2024MD022)。
摘要Green innovation is an important driving force for high-quality development and an important guarantee for the revitalization of the old industrial base in Northeast China.However,research on green innovation is still insufficient.Using the super-efficiency epsilon-based measure Malmquist model,kernel density estimation,and spatial econometric model,this study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of green innovation efficiency(GIE)in Northeast China from 2005 to 2020.The results reveal that:1)The GIE in Northeast China has obvious phased characteristics,where 2005-2011 was a period of fluctuating decline while 2012-2020 was a period of fluctuating increase,reflecting the severe resource and environmental constraints faced by the green innovation process.2)The GIE in the Northeast China has a significant spatial dependence,which has not formed a relatively stable spatial club feature.The process for improving the GIE in the Northeast China in the future is still arduous and far off.3)The interweaving and mutual influence of nonequilibrium factors have led to the diversity and complexity of the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of GIE.Overall,the level of economic development and industrial structure has a positive effect,while foreign investment and industrial agglomeration have a negative effect.The direct effects of government regulation,resource endowment,science and technology,environmental regulation,and urbanization are not significant.The research conclusion of this article can provide important reference for the revitalization of Northeast China.
基金ANID for supporting the Fondecyt project 1200555.
摘要Financial time series have been analyzed with a wide variety of models and approaches,some of which can forecast with great accuracy.However,most of these models,especially the machine learning ones,cannot show additional information for the decision maker or the financial analyst.The notion of causality is a concept that provides a more complete understanding of a problem beyond improved forecasts.In this study,we propose integrating the treatment/control concept of causality into a forecasting framework to better predict financial time series.Our results show that the proposed methodology outperforms classic econometric approaches such as ARIMA and Random Walk,as well as machine learning approaches without the proposed methodology.This improvement is statistically significant,as indicated by the Model Confidence Set test in the complete test set and quarterly analysis.
基金supported by the project of Non-Tax Revenue of Yunnan Provincial Department of Finance(Grant No.FSYJ202119).
摘要Green technology innovation has gradually become an important driving force to promote new quality productivity.This paper constructs a quantitative index system of new quality productivity based on the three major elements of workers,labour objects and labour tools,and empirically analyses the impact of green technology innovation on the level of new quality productivity using spatial econometric model and VAR model.The result shows that:(1)The level of new quality productivity is not only affected by its own factors,but also by the significant spatial spillover effect between regions,especially in the case of strong geographic proximity,the interregional economic activities and resource allocation have a strong interaction and dependence.(2)The direct effect of green technology innovation is negative,mainly due to the high R&D investment and the short-term cost increase brought about by technological transformation,but its indirect effect is positive,showing that green technology has a positive effect on the new quality productivity enhancement of neighbouring regions through technology diffusion and cooperative innovation.(3)The eastern and western regions are affected by high upfront costs and transformation challenges,showing negative effects;while the central and northeastern regions benefit from policy support and industrial upgrading,showing positive effects.(4)Impulse response function analysis shows that the short-term impact of green technological innovation on new quality productivity is negative,but the long-term potential is significant,and the negative effect gradually diminishes over time.Based on this,this paper puts forward the suggestions of optimising the green innovation input structure,formulating regional differentiated policies and strengthening regional synergistic cooperation,which provide the theoretical basis and practical path for realising the green transformation and high-quality development of the economy.
摘要This study investigates the spatial courting between digital economic signs and local monetary overall performance throughout ten provinces in Sumatra,Indonesia,from 2019 to 2022.As digitalization hastens economic and business sports,devices together with fintech lending,e-cash,debit card usage,and e-commerce are increasingly more diagnosed as capability drivers of regional increase.But,the unequal distribution of digital infrastructure and monetary literacy across regions raises issues approximately the inclusivity of these benefits.constructing upon current findings by using Miranti et al.(2024),this research employs spatial econometric fashions-particularly the Spatial Lag model(SLM)and Spatial mistakes model(SEM)-to evaluate how digital variables influence provincial financial overall performance while accounting for spatial spillover consequences.The results reveal that fintech lending and debit card usage exert a positive and significant impact on economic growth,whereas the effect of e-money is negative,suggesting potential substitution effects or access constraints.Spatial dependency is also evident,as demonstrated by the significant lambda coefficient in the SEM model.These findings highlight the importance of spatially coordinated digital policies,particularly in addressing disparities and enhancing digital financial inclusion.The study concludes with policy recommendations aimed at fostering inclusive and spatially balanced digital economic development in Sumatra.